If the protests had driven an explosion in cases, experts say, the jumps would have started to become apparent within two weeks — and perhaps as early as five days. But that didn’t happen in many cities with the largest protests, including New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Washington, D.C.
In what’s considered the first systematic look at the question, a team of economists determined that only one of 13 cities involved in the earliest wave of protests after Memorial Day had an increase that would fit the pattern.
It was Phoenix, where experts say cases and hospitalizations surged after a decision by Gov. Doug Ducey to end Arizona’s stay-at-home order on May 15 and eased restrictions on businesses. Arizona residents who were cooped up for six weeks flooded Phoenix-area bar districts, ignoring social distancing guidelines.
In many cities, the protests actually seemed to lead to a net increase in social distancing, as more people who did not protest decided to stay off the streets, said that study’s lead author, Dhaval Dave of Bentley University.
“The large-scale protests can impact both the behavior of the protesters and the behavior of the non-protesters,” said Dave. The paper was released last week by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but has not been published by a peer-reviewed journal.
Drawing from data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, The Associated Press reviewed trends in daily reported cases in 22 U.S. cities with protests. It found post-protest increases in several cities — including Houston and Madison, Wisconsin — where experts say other factors were more likely the main drivers.
Health officials are still investigating case surges in different states, and more data may come in. But experts believe that if the protests did have a big impact on cases, stronger signs would be apparent now.
Floyd was killed on May 25 by a Minneapolis police officer who used his knee to pin Floyd’s neck to the ground. The killing of a Black man at the hands of a white officer touched off protests around the United States. Coincidentally, some states had begun to lift social distancing restrictions in late May.
Dave and his colleagues counted protests over three weeks in 281 cities with populations of at least 100,000. Most had protests lasting more than three days, and many had protests that had at least 1,000 participants.
It’s not clear how many protesters participated, let alone how many of them wore masks or got tested after. That may have varied from place to place.
Houston is among a number of Texas cities that have recently seen steep increases in cases and hospitalizations. Dr. Umair Shah, executive director of the county health department, believes it was likely some cases could be traced to the protests.
“We just don’t know how much,” he said.
But it’s hard to measure the protests’ precise impact for a number of reasons, Shah and others said. Earlier business reopenings and more willingness to shrug off social distancing guidelines started the trend in the Houston area, Shah said.
Another factor: Many people don’t get tested unless they feel symptoms. Many protesters were young adults, who generally are less likely to get severe illness, and therefore may not have gotten tested, experts said.
And some who do get tested may still not answer all the questions they are asked by outbreak investigators.
“I know of three people who told us ‘Yes, I was at a protest.’ That doesn’t mean there was not another 25 or more who did attend a protest and just did not share that with us,” said Dr. Mysheika Roberts, the public health commissioner for the city of Columbus, Ohio.
That city has seen increased cases in the last month, but health officials say they can’t attribute it to any particular reason other than people socializing and returning to normal activities without wearing masks or taking other precautions. So far, protests don’t seem to be a real factor.
“Most of the protests, at least in my jurisdiction, were outside,” and the virus does not spread as well outside, Roberts said. “And I would say 50% of those at the protests were wearing a face mask.”
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Republished with permission from the Associated Press.
Associated Press
5 comments
martin
July 2, 2020 at 7:04 am
The liberal media hacks expect us to believe this? Thousands more young people were protesting, rioting, looting in close quarters, then could ever have been in bars…
ItsTimeforTruth
July 2, 2020 at 10:51 am
How stupid does the leftist media think Americans are? This false narrative that gathering for protests does not cause a spike in cases is absurd. We can protest but not go to the beach.
Stop! You sound ridiculous.
Sonja Fitch
July 2, 2020 at 2:45 pm
Look at the protesters! They are wearing masks. ! But goptrump cult members are to damn stupid to do the easiest damn thing and wear a mask!!!!
LINDIESUE
July 2, 2020 at 4:23 pm
June 23 Los Angeles Times reported that COVID infections spiked among police – a spike twice the rate of our historic rate of change – due to working the protests where they were exposed on skirmish lines as they worked to disperse screaming crowds. Protestors complained the police made arrests enmasse without wearing masks, but having watched every night for over 4 weeks, the majority of protestors did not wear masks. They did, however, scream and spit in the faces of attendees, law enforcement and reporters. Remember, NY and other liberal states instructed medical folks not to ask those being tested (40 and under) if they attended protests. Hiding something, perhaps? What else is new?
KennethMcCarver
July 2, 2020 at 6:52 pm
Of course. It’s a fact in the liberal mind that the virus is only transferred by going to Trump rallies if Church.
How do you like Democrat Socialism? just like the third world isn’t it. Democrat Governor’s & Mayors ordering Police to stand down while the city is looted, burned. citizens beaten in the streets, monuments destroyed, police stations actually taken over and allowed to be occupied. Antifa and BLM are the criminals behind this. Below are those in sympathy with Antifa and BLM.
What do these Mayors & Governors have in common?
Tom Wolf (Gov PA), Jim Kenney (Mayor Philadelphia), JB Pritzker (Gov Il), Lori Lightfoot (Mayor Chicago), Gavin Newsom (Gov CA) Kate Brown (Gov OR), Ted Wheeler (Mayor Portland OR), Jay Inslee (Gov WA), Jenny Durkan (Mayor Seattle), Andrew Cuomo (Gov NY), Bill Di Blasio, (Mayor NY) Tim Walz (Gov MN) Jacob Frey (Mayor MN), Lyda Krewson (Mayor St. Louis), Gretchen Whitmer (Gov MI), Mike Duggan (Mayor Detroit) , Keisha Bottoms (Mayor Atlanta GA)
All are Democrats who kept the economy in their states and cities closed as long as they could (many still are) and ordered Police in their cities to stand down allowing the destruction.
There is no moderate wing of the Democrat party people and they really don’t care about taxpayers except for their vote. If you vote for Joe Biden, you are voting for Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren’s far left platform.. Joe will follow the radical left’s agenda or Joe won’t get the support (and he is of) Nancy Pelosi, Val Demings, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Valerie Jarrett,. Rashida Talib, Stacy Abrams, Ayanna Pressley, Nancy Pelosi, Sheila Jackson Lee, Tom Perez, Maxine Waters, Al Green, and llhan Omar.
This is the core of the socialists leftist wing of the Democrat party and are firmly in charge.
Democrat Platform & Goals:
(Democrats want to make this election all about the hate for President Trump. NOT their platform & Goals for obvious reasons.
At least know who & what you are voting for. Do you know the Democrats goals? here it is.
*End all deportations of illegal aliens, if you get here, you stay. Bernie’s website calls it a “moratorium” on deportations.
*Citizenship for 20 to 50 million illegal aliens, DACA & TPS recipients with a cost of billions.
*Massive tax increases. All Democrat candidates have committed to tax increases of various amounts.
*Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Green new deal.(which would create massive unemployment, 100,000 jobs estimated in the transportation industry alone.) Joe Biden supports.
*De-fund & terminate border patrol & ICE.
*Free Healthcare for Illegal aliens, DACA, TPS recipients (taxpayer funded with one estimate at 52 trillion)
*Ending of all private / employer based health care. “Medicare for all”, Feds run everything.
*Illegal Aliens eligible for welfare & food stamps. (Elizabeth Warrens plan adopted)
*Reparations for race’s harmed by Caucasians. Joe Biden committed to “Reverend” Al Sharpton’s support for Sheila Jackson Lee’s racist reparations bill in the House. Basically a tax will be levied on all Caucasians in America. (you can’t make this stuff up)
*Sanctuary Cities & States. Joe Biden supports sanctuary cities.
*Free college for all, including illegal aliens (taxpayer funded estimates in the billions. Bernie Sanders plan adopted.
*Decriminalization of illegal entry into our country.
*Open Borders.
*Drivers Licenses for illegal aliens (already happening in states with Democrat leadership.
*Late term abortions up to 9 months.
*Ending of all private / employer based health care. “Medicare for all”, Feds run everything.
* Destruction and erasing our history.
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