Ryan Nicol
South Florida’s tri-county area recorded another 4,648 COVID-19 cases as trends dating back to last week have largely held constant.
Those trends include a falling positivity rate (the share of tests coming back positive) which can be a sign the virus is spreading less quickly. That number had shot up for weeks since the virus’s recent resurgence before beginning to fall last week.
Data on hospitalizations and deaths are still showing dangerous signs for the region, however. They are both lagging indicators, as it can take time for individuals who contract the virus to develop serious symptoms.
The average number of daily deaths is still trending upward. Across the South Florida tri-county area, an average of 40 people have died each day over the previous seven days. Miami-Dade County alone makes up more than half of that total, with an average of 21 deaths each day over the past week.
Adult intensive care unit (ICU) beds also remain near 90% capacity at hospitals in Broward and Miami-Dade counties.
The positivity rate did spike in Monday’s report, but that rate dropped in Tuesday’s, which covers data from Monday to Tuesday morning. Miami-Dade County saw 19.2% of tests come back positive. In Broward County, that number was 15.1% while Palm Beach County saw a 13% positivity rate.
Those numbers are still startlingly high and have consistently been above 10% — and in Miami-Dade, often above 20% — for weeks. The number will need to continue to trend downward for officials to move back to a reopening posture, as local leaders have begun shutting down the economy once again.
Broward County hospitals remain at 89% adult ICU capacity as of Tuesday morning. That number is largely unchanged since Monday.
Miami-Dade County moved from 85% capacity Monday to nearly 89% capacity Tuesday. Palm Beach is faring better, with around 76% of its beds being occupied. Through the region, 86% of those beds are filled as of Tuesday.
The overall death rate also ticked up in Palm Beach County for the second time in five days. That number has largely been falling in the state as testing capacity expands. Those tests are now reaching less sick individuals, which will tend to lower the death rate.
While that rate has largely fallen each day in South Florida, save the recent exceptions in Palm Beach, the total number of average daily deaths is increasing. Here are some of the weekly numbers for the previous three weeks throughout the South Florida tri-county area:
Miami-Dade
— June 30-July 6: 2,026 new confirmed cases per day, 20% positivity rate, 9 deaths per day
— July 7-13: 2,678 new confirmed cases per day, 20.6% positivity rate, 17 deaths per day
— July 14-20: 2,813 new confirmed cases per day, 19.4% positivity rate, 21 deaths per day
Broward
— June 30-July 6: 986 new confirmed cases per day, 14.9% positivity rate, 5 deaths per day
— July 7-13: 1,455 new confirmed cases per day, 15.3% positivity rate, 7 deaths per day
— July 14-20: 1,402 new confirmed cases per day, 15.1% positivity rate, 8 deaths per day
Palm Beach
— June 30-July 6: 493 new confirmed cases per day, 13.7% positivity rate, 8 deaths per day
— July 7-13: 658 new confirmed cases per day, 12.3% positivity rate, 9 deaths per day
— July 14-20: 662 new confirmed cases per day, 11.2% positivity rate, 11 deaths per day
___
Editor’s note on methodology: The Florida Department of Health releases new data every morning around 10:45 a.m. The total number reported in those daily reports include the previous day’s totals as well as the most up to date data as of about 9:30 a.m.
Florida Politics uses the report-over-report increase to document the number of new cases each day because it represents the most up-to-date data available. Some of the more specific data, including positivity rates and demographics, considers a different data set that includes only cases reported the previous day.
This is important to note because the DOH report lists different daily totals than our methodology to show day-over-day trends. Their numbers do not include non-residents who tested positive in the state and they only include single-day data, therefore some data in the DOH report may appear lower than what we report.
Our methodology was established based on careful consideration among our editorial staff to capture both the most recent and accurate trends.
