Florida one of a dozen states with declining COVID-19 infections

covid 19 outbreak worldwide. protective mask with text coronavirus on flag of usa
Florida's reproduction rate for new infections is 0.99.

One model attempting to plot the rate of COVID-19 infections lists Florida as one of twelve states currently experiencing a decline in transmissions.

Florida’s Rt, or effective reproduction number, is 0.99 according to rt.live, meaning the virus’ spread is slowing. The model confirmed that rate in a Sunday afternoon update.

Of those dozen states, Florida ranked 11th.

Founders of Instagram created rt.live, putting their data talents into online pandemic tracking using data from data from COVIDTracking.com.

At the start of June, when cases skyrocketed from 1,000 diagnoses per day to ten times that, Florida’s Rt was 1.36, one of the worst in the nation. By the end of the month, that metric had fallen to 1.oo. That rate fell to 0.98 in the first week of July but is currently 0.99.

Florida also had an Rt below 1.00 between March 28 and May 6, spanning of the safer-at-home order.

The pandemic is slowing the fastest in Maine, which has an RT of 0.87. Washington, D.C., and 34 states have a growing number of new infections, the worst of which is Missouri with an Rt of 1.26. Delaware, Nevada, New York and Wisconsin all have Rts of 1.00.

Gov. Ron DeSantis‘ incoming Communications Director Fred Piccolo tweeted the snapshot of Florida’s curve Sunday, ahead of him officially joining the Governor’s Office Monday.

But the rate of infections does not account for how many infections the state has. Florida has the fourth-worst cases per capita throughout the pandemic, and counted 9,344 new infections between Saturday and Sunday mornings.

However, DeSantis says Florida’s testing has outpaced other states, and states like New York that saw early outbreaks likely missed thousands of infections because testing supplies were limited at the time.

A separate model designed by Youyang Gu, and independent data scientist and MIT graduate, that uses machine learning lists Florida’s current Rt as 0.92 after peaking at 1.42. Both models attempt to correct for daily volume of tests.

In Florida, nearly 100,000 people are tested daily for COVID-19.

Renzo Downey

Renzo Downey covers state government for Florida Politics. After graduating from Northwestern University in 2019, Renzo began his reporting career in the Lone Star State, covering state government for the Austin American-Statesman. Shoot Renzo an email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @RenzoDowney.


6 comments

  • S.B. Anthony

    July 26, 2020 at 9:19 pm

    Why should we believe anything that comes from an administration that’s already betrayed the public trust? The “governor” lies. Why should we trust him now? He just wants to get the schools open to please the lying president.

  • Margan lustin

    July 26, 2020 at 9:54 pm

    Renzo renzo. HOW CAN YOU KEEP MISLEADING FLORIDA SO MUCH???? This is deadly misinformation not checked.
    FLORIDA IS NOT NOT NOT DECLINING.
    HOSPITALS DEATHS STEADILY SURGING.HOSPITALS PAST CAPACITY IN MOST ESPECIALLY ALL OVER FLORIDA NEEDED WORSE. DEATHS INCREASING MORE EVERY WEEK AVERAGE UP UP,
    RENZO UNDERSTAND THIS PLEASE STOP POSTING YOUR WRONG INFORMATION FROM DE SANTIS TRICKERY.STOP FORMULA HE DOES TO DISTORT out of control virus with no restrictions put back and opened more and more as hospitals deaths increasing of capacity now and deaths each day higher than before.

    Saturdays and Sundays de santis does little testing or results. Ever. So he can claim falsely lower. Does every weekend trick.
    DO YOUR HOMEWORK. OR STOP POSTING.
    DE SANTIS POSITIVITY RATE IS MEANINGLESS TRICK FORMULA.HOSPITALIZATIONS AND DEATHS ONLY IMPORTANT CRITERIA TO WATCH AND BOTH HORRIFICALLY INCREASING SINCE OVER 5 WEEKS AGO and WORSE THAN EVER.

    RENZO UNDERSTAND YOUR ARTICLE AT FLORIDA POLITICS IS DANGEROUS MISLEADING WRONG.
    DE SANTIS POSITIVITY RATE IS BASED ON HIM CONTROLLING AMT DAILY TESTS THAN TAKES A PERCENT…OF POSITIVE VS TESTS DAILY.
    COMPLETE BULL AS HE MANIPULATES DAILY POSITIVITY RATE BY HIS STAFF ALLOWING TESTS THAT LET’S HIM LIE AND MANIPULATE.

    FOR EXAMPLE RENZO DOWNEY. DE SANTIS SCHEDULES 40000 TESTS 9000 are positive. He takes PERCENT OF 9000 CASES VS 40000 TESTS AND SAYS SO CALLED BOGUS POSITIVITY RATE IS 22.5 PERCENT.

    NEXT DAY HE ALLOWS 50000 TOTAL TESTS AND 9000 POSITIVE SO HE TAKES PERCENT….OF 9000 OF 50000 TESTS AND CLAIMS RATE ….DECLINED!! TO 18 PERCENT.

    GET IT NOW???, CASES BOTH DAYS 9000 POSITIVE. Same. The 9000 cases both days affect hospitalizations and deaths in same way. Bad and overwhelming them.
    On and on. So positivity rate metric he !!!likes to use!?!
    Is not based on reality but a manipulation for him to say declining so he won’t close down or restrict or mandate masks all the CAUSES OF THE HUGE INCREASES IN HOSPITALIZATIONS AND DEATHS LAST 5 WEEKS. Getting worse.hospitals miami etc etc overwhelmed to capacity now and many areas. Most smaller counties with increasing hospitalizations and deaths have no icu beds at all or few and already full.

    Renzo please notice hospital directors clearly stating low supplies. Low ventilators low staff no
    BEDS and out of needed meds treatment saying doses de santis getting no where meet need. 8 weeks ago plenty meds plenty beds. Now only metric ANY HONEST REPORTERS ANY GOOD WILL LOOK AT FLORIDAS HORRIFIC HOSPITALIZATIONS AND DEATHS CURVES OUT OF CONTROL AS HE DOES NOTHING NOTHING.

    NOW HE’S STARTED SCHEDULING 100,000 TESTS DAILY. CAN YOU GET IT THAT MEANS 100000 TESTS DAILY HE’S PUSHING WILL RESULT IN 12000 DAILY TO 15000 AND UP POSITIVE DAILY CASES AND WHEN HE DOES HIS FAKE POSITIVITY RATE METRIC IT WILL FALSELY LOOK LIKE IT’S MUCH LOWER AND DECLINING AND LOCAL LEADERS AND REPORTERS NEED TO DO THEIR DUE DELICENCE AND FORGET THE MANIPULATED RATE …..AND CONCENTRATE. REPORT ONLY ON…THE TRUE REALITY OF FLORIDAS CONDITION IS HOSPITALIZATIONS AND DEATHS. THESE POSITIVE CASES ALL AGES ARE SICK IN ICUS BEDS SO MUCH THAT BEDS ARE PAST CAPACITY. AND YOU ALL LET HIM STILL GET AWAY WITH HIS CUNNING SOULLESS RATE MEANINGLESS CRITERIA.

    IF YOU CANT FIGURE OUT WHATS REAL AND NOT THEN STOP QUOTING HIM MISLEADING THE PUBLIC.

  • Sonja Fitch

    July 27, 2020 at 7:02 am

    Shut down the state! If this is anywhere near true! Stop! The most critical number now are the deaths ! We are killing em off to the point of collapsing local health care support! Test test and test! Shut down the state!

  • RMartin

    July 27, 2020 at 7:22 am

    The statements about a supposed decline and Rt values is premature to say the least. If this is indicating leadership is leaning towards loosening COVID19 meaures – I would say we need to revisit the history and not just one week of the findings.
    I agree with Sonja’s comment. The deaths, hospital census capacities, and health risks to the youngest populations are more concerning at this point than new positives.

  • PeterH

    July 27, 2020 at 3:01 pm

    You can count on the DeSantis administration caving to common sense and reopening the bars and nightclubs Statewide.

    Unless we get National and State responsible stewardship…..I think Floridians should expect a horrible seasonal visitors in the Fall 2020 and Winter 2021.

  • Carol

    July 28, 2020 at 7:04 am

    “However, DeSantis says Florida’s testing has outpaced other states, and states like New York that saw early outbreaks likely missed thousands of infections because testing supplies were limited at the time.”

    According to Worldometer, Florida ranks 21st among states in testing per million population, below the national average. Rhode Island ranks first at 325,283, New York ranks second at 289,261. Florida ranks 21st at 159,992.

Comments are closed.


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