Poll: Bob Dallari, Lee Constantine with commanding leads headed to Election Day

Illustrative image of the election in a democratic society. Elections in Ukraine. The process of voting at a polling station. Voters vote in polling booths.
Dallari leads Matt Morgan 50-28%. Constantine leads Ben Paris 48-31%.

Incumbent Seminole County Commissioners Bob Dallari and Lee Constantine seem to be locks for the November ballot according to a new poll.

St. Pete Polls surveyed voters in Commission District 1 and District 3, finding both incumbents with double-digit leads.

Dallari faces Longwood Mayor and former WWE wrestler Matt Morgan in the Aug. 18 Republican primary. The poll found Dallari with just over 50% support among GOP primary voters while Morgan tracked at 28%.

The lead expands to 60%-30% among those who have already voted — about a quarter of the 283 respondents. Among those who have yet to vote, Dallari holds a 46-28% lead with 26% undecided.

Dallari leads in every crosstab. He leads 49-27% among men; 51-30% among women; and 53-29% among voters over 70, which make up the bulk of respondents.

In District 3, St. Pete Polls found Constantine with a 48-31% lead over former Longwood Mayor and now-Longwood City Commissioner Ben Paris.

Like his fellow incumbent, a sizable chunk of Constantine’s edge is already locked in. He leads 56-33% among those who’ve already cast a ballot. The split shrinks to 45-29% among those who’ve yet to vote.

Constantine fares best among men and 70-plus voters. He cracks 51% for both demographics.

Paris’ best numbers came from women voters, though he still trailed Constantine 46-36%.

Dallari and Constantine’s strong poll numbers come on the heels of a recent straw poll that indicated each was in for a tough reelection battle — Morgan received 835 votes to Dallari’s 631 while Paris received 696 to Constantine’s 655 in the Oviedo-Winter Springs Regional Chamber of Commerce’s informal measure.

In fundraising, however, both incumbents have a clear lead.

As of Aug. 7, Dallari had raised more than $111,000 for his campaign while Morgan had amassed $82,000. Constantine has raised nearly $225,000 and has $140,000 in the bank while Paris has raised a hair over $50,000.

The St. Pete Polls survey was conducted Aug. 8-9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Peter Schorsch

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including Florida Politics and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. Schorsch is also the publisher of INFLUENCE Magazine. For several years, Peter's blog was ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.


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