Poll gives Maria Elvira Salazar a slight edge over Donna Shalala in CD 27

A new survey commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) shows Republican candidate Maria Elvira Salazar with a 46%-43% edge as she challenges Democratic U.S. Rep. Donna Shalala.

That 3-point lead is within the survey’s 4.9% margin of error. Salazar is challenging Shalala for Florida’s 27th Congressional District.

The 1892 Polling survey ran Sept. 2-5 and sampled 400 likely voters. Salazar’s campaign has paid that firm more than $73,000 this cycle for various polling and consulting expenses.

The survey gives Salazar a 55%-33% lead among Hispanic voters. Salazar leads 62%-29% among Cuban voters, who tend to lean more Republican than other Hispanic groups. Salazar also leads 43%-40% among non-Cuban Hispanics.

Publicly-released polls backed by partisan groups should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism. Though the findings can be accurate, partisan groups have an incentive to withhold internal polls showing poor results for their preferred candidate and only release favorable polls to the public.

In 2018, Salazar’s campaign put out a survey showing her leading Shalala by 9 points just weeks before the CD 27 election. Shalala went on to win by 6 percentage points.

Still, the NRCC-commissioned survey tracks somewhat with a recent Miami Herald survey showing President Donald Trump over-performing among Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade County. If Hispanics in the district trend more Republican this cycle than they did in 2018, that could affect the results of other races inside the county.

The NRCC poll also showed Salazar with a +20 approval rating as compared to -4 for Shalala. Among Hispanics, Salazar had a +28 rating, while Shalala’s number sat at -19.

With Salazar and Shalala locked in a rematch, Shalala Thursday pushed her Republican rival to debate ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

Shalala says she has accepted three invitations to debate. Shalala offered to attend debates on Oct. 15 with Actualidad Radio, on Oct. 16 with CBS 4 and on Oct. 22 with Univision 23. Salazar and Shalala debated only once, in Spanish, during the 2018 campaign.

“These debates will be an opportunity to talk about real solutions — not partisan talking points — and our respective records of getting things done for our community,” Shalala said.

“I look forward to continuing that conversation with the voters, as I share my vision and my plans on how I will continue to lead in addressing this health crisis, getting our economy back on track, standing up to dictatorial regimes and fighting for South Florida.”