Where are all these Democratic votes coming from? Some of Florida’s reddest counties.
Collier County Government Center

Collier-government-center
So far, Collier has seen the highest Democratic turnout of any Florida county.

Where is the Democratic advantage in Florida’s early voting and vote-by-mail coming from? It turns out in ruby-red districts.

A look at county totals shows some of Florida’s Republican strongholds also see the highest turnout rate among Democrats so far this election cycle.

The clearest example comes in Collier County, where Democratic turnout 10 days out from the election has already exceeded 62%. As of Saturday morning, 26,310 Democrats had returned their mail ballot and another 7,553 cast votes at early voting locations. That’s a total of 33,863 votes already locked in.

That means Democrats in the county boast a higher turnout rate than they do in any other county in Florida.

It’s all the more remarkable considering Democrats make up just 24.5% of voters in the county, a total of 54,845 Collier Democrats in total.

That’s not to say Collier County Republicans should shake in their boots. About 54% of Republicans in the county also already turned out, and that means 61,232 Republican ballots already in the box there.

But it’s a sign of how the Presidential election could turn in the largest swing state. President Donald Trump, who voted early in Florida himself on Saturday, needs to beat Democrat Joe Biden in Florida to have a shot at reelection, according to most analysts.

The second-highest Democrat turnout comes in Sumter County, home to The Villages, which in the last decade has been a required pilgrimage for Republican candidates running statewide.

In that county, 14,696 Democrats already voted, of 60% of all registered there.

In Martin County, another GOP-majority area, 58% of Democrats already voted, or 10,751.

In all three of those counties, Democratic voters outperformed Republican ones, even if they can’t match the other side in raw numbers.

Part of this is a statewide trend; Democrats as of Saturday morning were outperforming Republicans in 57 of 67 counties statewide, buoyed by strong vote-by-mail, though Republicans have tallied more in-person early votes statewide.

And there’s still areas of concern for the party. Miami-Dade, a blue county and Florida’s most populous, is among the 10 counties where Republicans have outperformed.

There, about 41% of Republicans already voted, or 167,442 voters. By comparison, Democratic turnout sits at 39%. That’s still 244,649 Democrats to already cast a vote, putting a lot more tickets in the local pool than the GOP has turned out ballot-for-ballot.

But high turnout in Miami-Dade County could be crucial to Democrats chance at flipping the state blue four years after Trump beat Hillary Clinton here by 1 percentage point.

The President has aggressively targeted conservative Hispanic voters in South Florida, and so far, the Miami area remains one place where Democrats aren’t counterpunching, even in an area much friendlier to Democrats than Naples or The Villages.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


12 comments

  • S.B.ANTHONY

    October 25, 2020 at 9:02 am

    The vast majority of my conservative Cuban-American friends in Miami are voting for Biden. They recognize that Trump is a wanna-be dictator in the manner of Castro and that he’s not a true conservative, having hijacked and killed the Republican party. It’s now just Democrats vs. Trump, and that’s not their vision.

  • Leslie Goller

    October 25, 2020 at 10:11 am

    Hard to know. A lot of Older voters never changed their voter registration from Democrat, but still vote Republican.

  • Amy Roberts

    October 25, 2020 at 10:29 am

    I agree with you Leslie, my Stepfather had retained his Voter registration as a Democrat back from Dixiecrat days, but voted Republican. I believe that still why the rolls show so many Democrats registered in Florida.

  • Monte

    October 25, 2020 at 12:29 pm

    Just because they returned their ballots doesn’t mean they voted for Biden. I know a lot of Democrats voting red this time around.

  • Sonja Fitch

    October 25, 2020 at 4:26 pm

    Lol yes they voted for health care and coverage for preexisting condition coverage. It don’t matter til the votes are counted! The Villages are folks with brains age and experience ! They see trump
    For the paranoid delusional racist sexist liar ! They ain’t going to let him kill them ! SECRET BALLOT for a reason! Vote Blue!

  • Allan Kenney

    October 25, 2020 at 8:00 pm

    Most of the working class republican people haven’t voted yet sat at a voting place for over an hour and majority were wearing Trump hats and t shirts so give it time

  • Cathy

    October 26, 2020 at 3:01 pm

    All the many women Facebook groups show post after post of early voting lifetime Republicans voting BLUE for the first time, along with people who never voted before, and women who aren’t telling their husbands they are voting BLUE. Women want a change.

  • katy

    October 26, 2020 at 5:29 pm

    I am a registered democrat in a red county and voted for Trump-so not really indicative of the vote by party.

  • SANDY OESTREICH

    October 26, 2020 at 9:53 pm

    MY GOSH, SOME FLORIDIANS ARE VOTING REPUBLICAN DESPITE WHAT TRUMP INC HAS DONE AND WILL DO TO THEM: MEDICARE, OBAMACARE, AND SOCIAL SECURITY TARGETED FOR DESTRUCTION.AND THAT’S JUST FOR STARTERS! ARE REPUBLICANS THAT ENAMORED OF TYRANNY RUNNING AMERICA? AND THERE ARE OTHER HORRORS HE PLANS. ASK HIM, HOPING THAT DAY HE WILL NOT LIE AGAIN FOR THE 20,060 TIME! sERIOUSLY? NONE OF THAT IS A JOKE!

  • Craig A Cianci

    October 30, 2020 at 10:14 pm

    I am voting for trump biden us a socialist and u want your freedom and gun rights taken away not me I am fir freedom buden us a joke can’t even remember trumos name hiw can he run a country please trump will win

  • Alex

    October 31, 2020 at 5:14 pm

    I am a registered democratic voter in NYC and I am voting for Trump and so are many others all over the country.

  • DAVID C WELLS

    November 1, 2020 at 9:59 am

    LIFE LONG REPUBLICAN CONSISTENTLY HAVE WATCHED DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTS WATCH CITIES DECAY AND BE DESTROYED. BREAKS MY HEART. PLEASE WAKE UP. TRUMP DOESNT NEEED ANY FOREIGN MONEY HE HAS PLENTY. MY STATE NEVADA IS DYING BECAUSE OF A DEMOCRAT GOVERNOR . MY LIFES BLOOD THE LAS VEGAS STRIP. IS DOWN 80%- VOTE TRUMP!!!!!!!

Comments are closed.


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