The survey of 315 likely voters in the Westside Jacksonville district shows that incumbent Rep. Wyman Duggan is poised to defeat Democratic challenger Tammyette Thomas when the votes are counted Tuesday night.
Running in a D+3 district, Duggan is the choice of 50% of the voters surveyed, with Thomas the choice of 41%.
When the field is narrowed to voters who have already voted (87% of the sample), the numbers narrow, with Duggan leading by only three points. This suggests that the preponderance of voters on Election Day will be Republican or Republican-leaning.
Of those voters who haven’t voted, 75% intend to vote for Duggan, 13% for Thomas, and the remainder would not say.
Duggan’s numbers in this poll stem in part from his ability to make inroads with female and Democratic voters, a function of advertising from the Republican Party of Florida targeting NPA and Democratic women.
Duggan is at 51% with both genders in the poll, with Thomas at 39% with men and 41% with women.
Duggan is holding 85% of Republicans, while Thomas is the choice of just 75% of Democrats polled.
The poll, though good news for Duggan, who was elected in 2018 by just two points, suggests trouble at the top of the ticket in a district Trump won by 10 points in 2016
Democrat Joe Biden is poised to win the district over Donald Trump, according to this poll, taking 50% of the vote with Trump taking just 48%.
Biden’s lead is bigger when restricted to those who have already voted, 53% to 45%. Election Day vote, meanwhile, will largely go into the President’s column. With those voters, Trump is the choice of 78%, and Biden just 18%.
The poll results in the Presidential race suggest that the district is likely to fall in line with its D+3 demographics, and the party splits in the survey suggest both Trump and Biden will bring their voters home. Of Republicans, 90% back Trump. Meanwhile, 89% of Democrats back Biden.
Biden is up two points with independent voters, though only 50 of them were surveyed.
While the President may not pull out HD 15, the St. Pete Polls survey offers some good news for Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is still in positive territory after a 2020 full of base plays from the first-term Republican.
In the HD 15 poll, 47% of those surveyed approved of DeSantis, with 44% disapproving. He holds his own party, with 88% approval among Republicans.
But Democrats, with 79% disapproval, have made up their minds about the Governor, at least according to this data. And he’s four points underwater among independent voters, with a 46% disapproval against a 42% approval rating.