An Election Eve swing state poll shows Joe Biden up 8 percentage points nationally and winning in Florida by a healthy margin.
The Morning Consult found the Democrat winning about 51% of the vote in Florida and President Donald Trump the choice for 45%. The 6-point lead falls well outside the poll’s 2% margin of error.
The numbers came in a batch of polling for 14 battleground states, which found Biden leading outside the margin of error in six states, Trump leading in three and a statistical tie in five other states. The same poll found Biden with a six-point net positive favorability rating nationwide and Trump 11 points underwater.
The state-level surveys were conducted Oct. 21 and 22.
If correct, the polling shows a clear path to victory for Biden heading into Tuesday’s election. The former Vice President leads the incumbent in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, all states President Barack Obama won in 2012 — with Biden as a running mate — but which Trump won in 2016. Biden also maintains on edge in Colorado and Minnesota.
Trump leads in Indiana, Missouri and South Carolina. Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas all remain statistically tied, but with an edge to Biden in the first three and Texas tied; the Republican leads in Ohio by 3 points. All of those are states the Republican won in 2016 on his way to the White House.
The polling looks more bullish than most data coming out, at least at the state level in Florida.
Nationally, the poll finds Biden leading among all age demographics. That includes voters older than 65, where the Democrat leads 50% to 47%.
Both candidates retain support from more than 90% of members of their own party but independents break 49% to 39% for Biden. It also shows Biden leading among men 49% to 47% and among women 54% to 41%.
The Consult data shows Trump winning 52% of White voters to Biden’s 44%.
In contrast, a Florida Politics-commissioned survey by St. Pete Polls showed Biden winning by 1 point, but Trump with the edge among voters age 70 and older and among men.
State-level breakdowns on polling were not available from the Morning Consult.