Florida Influencers aren’t buying the buzz about an Ivanka Trump Senate bid, but they do have some predictions where some of Florida’s best-known elected officials will land on the 2022 ballot.
Just over a quarter of Influencers told Florida Politics they think the former President’s daughter will challenge U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, while 73% think she’ll avoid primarying Florida’s senior Senator. Rubio isn’t scared either way.
Democrats were most likely to predict an Ivanka run, but they still came in at a middling 30%, followed by Republicans at 25%.
Influencers are nearly as certain about future plans for U.S. Reps. Charlie Crist and Matt Gaetz, with the majority expecting they’ll run for reelection rather than higher office.
Still, about one in six influencers believe Crist will launch another run for Governor next year, while 7% say he’s aiming for U.S. Senate. Outside of the two-thirds who say he’ll stand pat in Florida’s 13th Congressional District, the most popular option was “Who the heck knows … it’s Charlie!”
Republicans, at 78%, were the most certain Crist would remain in Congress. About half of Democrats and independents agreed.
If he were to run for Governor, however, 12% of Influencers say he would defeat DeSantis.
He tied with Sen. Jason Pizzo for the fourth-best chance in the hypothetical, following Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried at 24%, U.S. Rep. Val Demings at 23% and former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham at 14%.
Despite the social media swell behind Rep. Anna Eskamani, she showed up at 2%, behind the 13% who picked “Someone Else.”
Who might “Someone Else” be? If comments are an indication, it could be Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg — his name was dropped by Democrats, Republicans and Independents alike.
Gaetz, meanwhile, is a near lock to run for reelection. Overall, 74% of Influencers said he’ll seek another term in CD 1, though 14% expect some theatrics, such as a Senate bid that ends in time for him to qualify in the House race.
If not, they predict he’ll land in the Agriculture Commissioner race.
Also on the radar for statewide office: Sen. Lauren Book. About half of Influencers said the South Florida Democrat should challenge Jimmy Patronis for CFO, outnumbering the 45% who think she should run for reelection.
Democrats were keener on her seeking a new job, with 78% picking CFO or “something else,” followed by NPAs at 69%. Just one in four Republicans think she should move on from the Senate.
The Influencers who took part in this survey: Anna Alexopoulos Farrar, Phil Ammann, Allison Aubuchon, Roger Austin, Mario Bailey, Tim Baker, Albert Balido, Ashley Bauman, Geoffrey Becker, Wayne Bertsch, Taylor Biehl, Katie Bohnett, Ron Book, Lauren Book, Blair Byrnes, Blair Byrnes, Reggie Cardozo, Kevin Cate, James Chan, Brad Coker, Robert Coker, Rachel Cone, Jordan Connors, Gus Corbella, Kevin Craig, Husein Cumber, Fred Cunningham, Karen Cyphers, Jim Daughton, Juan del Cerro, Hayden Dempsey, Richard DeNapoli, Nelson Diaz, Pablo Diaz, Andrew Dolberg, Ryan Duffy, Ben Durgan, Barry Edwards, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Matt Florell, Towson Fraser, Julia Gill-Woodward, Harrison Grandwilliams, Jennifer Green, Marion Hammer, Jeff Hartley, Rich Heffley, Cynthia Henderson, Tasi Hogan, Nick Janovsky, David Johnson, Jeff Johnson, Christina Johnson, Jon Johnson, Todd Josko, Fred Karlinsky, Micah Ketchel, Lori Killinger, Colin Kirkland, Jeff Kottkamp, Jessica Landsberg, Jackie Lee, Beth Lerner, Karis Lockhart, John Lux, Jesse Manzano, Roly Marante, Kathy Mears, Joe Mobley, Zach Monahan, Tim Nungesser, Sal Nuzzo, Meredith O’Rourke, Rick Oppenheim, Edie Ousley, Jenna Paladino, Darryl Paulson, Anthony Pedicini, Fred Piccolo, Gretchen Picotte, Ron Pierce, Evan Power, Bert Ralston, Foyt Ralston, Marc Reichelderfer, Darren Richards, Franco Ripple, Ashley Ross, Scott Ross, Evan Ross, Jason Roth, Preston Rudie, Elnatan Rudolph, Ron Sachs, April Schiff, Jack Seiler, Stephen Shiver, Patrick Slevin, Mac Stipanovich, Eileen Stuart, Brad Swanson, Kevin Sweeny, Allison Tant, Herbie Thiele, Cory Tilley, Kyle Ulrich, Christian Ulvert, Jenn Ungru, Steve Vancore, Claire VanSusteren, Nancy Watkins, Screven Watson, Christian Weiss, Doug Wheeler, Andrew Wiggins, Susie Wiles, Gregory Wilson and Joe York.