Florida Influencer Poll: All sorts of predictions for 2022

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Top politicos predict the ballot, from U.S. Senate to CFO.

Florida Influencers aren’t buying the buzz about an Ivanka Trump Senate bid, but they do have some predictions where some of Florida’s best-known elected officials will land on the 2022 ballot.

Just over a quarter of Influencers told Florida Politics they think the former President’s daughter will challenge U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, while 73% think she’ll avoid primarying Florida’s senior Senator. Rubio isn’t scared either way.

Democrats were most likely to predict an Ivanka run, but they still came in at a middling 30%, followed by Republicans at 25%.

Influencers are nearly as certain about future plans for U.S. Reps. Charlie Crist and Matt Gaetz, with the majority expecting they’ll run for reelection rather than higher office.

Still, about one in six influencers believe Crist will launch another run for Governor next year, while 7% say he’s aiming for U.S. Senate. Outside of the two-thirds who say he’ll stand pat in Florida’s 13th Congressional District, the most popular option was “Who the heck knows … it’s Charlie!”

Republicans, at 78%, were the most certain Crist would remain in Congress. About half of Democrats and independents agreed.

If he were to run for Governor, however, 12% of Influencers say he would defeat DeSantis.

He tied with Sen. Jason Pizzo for the fourth-best chance in the hypothetical, following Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried at 24%, U.S. Rep. Val Demings at 23% and former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham at 14%.

Despite the social media swell behind Rep. Anna Eskamani, she showed up at 2%, behind the 13% who picked “Someone Else.”

Who might “Someone Else” be? If comments are an indication, it could be Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg — his name was dropped by Democrats, Republicans and Independents alike.

Gaetz, meanwhile, is a near lock to run for reelection. Overall, 74% of Influencers said he’ll seek another term in CD 1, though 14% expect some theatrics, such as a Senate bid that ends in time for him to qualify in the House race.

If not, they predict he’ll land in the Agriculture Commissioner race.

Also on the radar for statewide office: Sen. Lauren Book. About half of Influencers said the South Florida Democrat should challenge Jimmy Patronis for CFO, outnumbering the 45% who think she should run for reelection.

Democrats were keener on her seeking a new job, with 78% picking CFO or “something else,” followed by NPAs at 69%. Just one in four Republicans think she should move on from the Senate.


The Influencers who took part in this survey: Anna Alexopoulos Farrar, Phil AmmannAllison AubuchonRoger AustinMario Bailey, Tim BakerAlbert BalidoAshley BaumanGeoffrey BeckerWayne BertschTaylor BiehlKatie BohnettRon BookLauren BookBlair ByrnesBlair ByrnesReggie Cardozo, Kevin CateJames ChanBrad CokerRobert Coker, Rachel ConeJordan ConnorsGus CorbellaKevin CraigHusein CumberFred CunninghamKaren CyphersJim DaughtonJuan del CerroHayden Dempsey, Richard DeNapoliNelson DiazPablo DiazAndrew DolbergRyan DuffyBen DurganBarry EdwardsAlia Faraj-JohnsonMark FerruloDamien FilerMatt FlorellTowson FraserJulia Gill-WoodwardHarrison GrandwilliamsJennifer GreenMarion Hammer, Jeff HartleyRich HeffleyCynthia HendersonTasi HoganNick JanovskyDavid JohnsonJeff JohnsonChristina JohnsonJon JohnsonTodd JoskoFred KarlinskyMicah Ketchel, Lori KillingerColin KirklandJeff KottkampJessica LandsbergJackie LeeBeth LernerKaris Lockhart, John LuxJesse ManzanoRoly Marante, Kathy MearsJoe Mobley, Zach MonahanTim NungesserSal NuzzoMeredith O’RourkeRick OppenheimEdie OusleyJenna PaladinoDarryl PaulsonAnthony PediciniFred PiccoloGretchen PicotteRon PierceEvan PowerBert RalstonFoyt RalstonMarc ReichelderferDarren RichardsFranco RippleAshley Ross, Scott RossEvan RossJason RothPreston RudieElnatan RudolphRon SachsApril SchiffJack SeilerStephen ShiverPatrick SlevinMac StipanovichEileen StuartBrad SwansonKevin SweenyAllison Tant, Herbie ThieleCory TilleyKyle UlrichChristian Ulvert, Jenn UngruSteve VancoreClaire VanSusterenNancy WatkinsScreven WatsonChristian WeissDoug WheelerAndrew WigginsSusie WilesGregory Wilson and Joe York.

Drew Wilson

Drew Wilson covers legislative campaigns and fundraising for Florida Politics. He is a former editor at The Independent Florida Alligator and business correspondent at The Hollywood Reporter. Wilson, a University of Florida alumnus, covered the state economy and Legislature for LobbyTools and The Florida Current prior to joining Florida Politics.


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