A.G. Gancarski
Gov. Ron DeSantis is under fire from critics and potential 2022 opponents alike for not saying enough about COVID-19 amid spikes in cases and hospitalizations, but thus far gamblers don’t care.
That’s the assertion, at least, of one bookmaker tracking the proposition of DeSantis’ reelection next year.
USSportsBonus.com, a bookie based in New Jersey, said DeSantis has held steady in the eyes of overseas bettors interested in what may happen to him in 2022 and potentially 2024 elections. However, an in-house analyst cautions that the situation is worth monitoring.
“DeSantis’ odds have not had a significant impact following the recent challenges faced by the state of Florida, which suggests that bookies are still confident in him being reelected,” said US Sportsbonus gambling industry analyst Jay Sanin. “The end of July marked the peak in DeSantis’ chances of winning, so this recent minimal change could mark the beginning of a downward trend depending on how he responds to these challenges.”
That minimal change has yet to have a real effect on DeSantis’ 2022 chances, which are highly favorable 23/100 odds. Charlie Crist has a 10% chance of winning, meanwhile. Nikki Fried sits at 8%.
“It’s not uncommon to see an incumbent candidate heavily favored in an election in which the rival party’s nominee has not been declared,” Sanin added. “But DeSantis is also a top contender in presidential betting markets, which is a good indication that he has a lot of public support.”
The bookie’s take: “DeSantis is currently 4/1 to be the Republican nominee (20% implied probability), trailing only Donald Trump, who’s 3/1 (25%). DeSantis also has the fourth best odds to win the 2024 election at 12/1 (7.7%). He trails Trump at 7/1 (12.5%), President Joe Biden at 4/1 (20%) and Kamala Harris at 7/2 (22.2%).”
This continues a strong trend for DeSantis in the estimation of bookies. BoyleSports likewise assessed DeSantis’ position as strong in a media release last week, specifically as a Trump alternative on the right.
“Punters are starting to abandon the idea of Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2024, and his odds have been eased out to 7/1 from 9/2 as a result,” said a spokesperson. “Instead, support is starting to gather for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has moved into 9/2 from 11/2 to win the Republican race and 10/1 from 16/1 to be elected President.”
The “Trump, then DeSantis” motif prevails in prediction markets also. PredictIt has DeSantis only behind the former President there also on the GOP side.
3 comments
Daphne
August 3, 2021 at 2:12 am
I intend to move to Florida next year from the United Kingdom where I’ve been living for years as a dual US/UK citizen. I’m also in my 60s and a lifelong Democrat. I will be voting for DeSantis – my first vote ever for a Republican. He’s the one of the few politicians to actually talk to non-government scientists and see past the covid rhetoric. His actions are based on what used to be normal American values. I have no idea what’s happened to the left, but it no longer represents people like me
Jeff
August 8, 2021 at 3:28 am
Daphne – your ignorance is better served in uk. Deathsantis is killing Floridians o. A daily basis with his lack of leadership and brain power. Mask use mitigates the spear of COVID. ITS A SCIENTIFICALLY PROVEN FACT AND NOT DEBATABLE. Not mandating masks for school children in a state is the epicenter of the pandemic is criminal. Leaving it to parents in state full of ignorant people like yourself will kill children and parents unnecessarily.
Jill
August 8, 2021 at 3:49 am
As a mother of a 6 and 8 year it makes me very upset that other parents decide the healthy and well being of my children in school. There are many trump Republicans in this state who don’t believe the science and reality of the pandemic and there going to send their kids to school without a mask outing other children and parents at risk. This is where our Goverment needs to step in and do what’s best for everyone to protect all children. Ron Desano’s is not doing that and it’s shocking the stance is he taking on this and that he would put children at risk as he knows there are many parents who will not make there kid where a mask. Stunning that anyone would support Desano’s when he has proven to be one of the worst Gov’s. He’s plays the freedom card at the the health snd well bring of all Floridians.
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