Poll: Donald Trump would lose Florida to Joe Biden if election were held today

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Some of the Republicans' support is bleeding to third parties.

A poll of Florida voters shows Donald Trump, nine months after winning Florida’s electoral votes, would lose the state today.

A St. Pete Polls survey commissioned by Florida Politics indicates Florida voters, right now, favor sitting President Joe Biden 48% to 47% of voters in Trump’s adopted home state.

Biden’s less-than-a-percentage-point edge certainly falls within the poll’s 2.2% margin of effort. Results of the poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday this week, include responses from 2,068 registered voters, weighted for active voter demographics.

But the Democrat’s edge stands despite the bulk of respondents telling pollsters they did support Trump in November. On the question of who voters actually backed last year, nearly 50% said Trump and just over 47% said Biden. That’s close to the three-percentage-point real world results of the election last year.

While Trump won Florida’s 29 electoral votes, Biden won nationwide, flipping several states Trump won in 2016. Since that time, Trump has openly questioned the results of every swing state he lost. But while many Trump faithful voters have joined in that crusade, Trump appears to be losing support as he ponders a 2024 comeback.

The poll finds fewer than 81% of Republican voters favoring Trump, compared to 14% who would pick Biden and 3% who would go third-party. Meanwhile, 82% of Democrats would gladly vote Biden while 15% would favor Trump and around 2% would go with a third party. By comparison, more than 83% of Republicans and 17% of Democrats polled voted for Trump in 2020.

In both November and now, 49% of those polled voted for Biden. But around 47% last November favored Trump and only 45% would support him today. While less than 2% of independent voters polled went third-party last November, more than 4% would do so now.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


29 comments

  • Johny Reb

    August 18, 2021 at 8:28 am

    Fake News!!!!! Biden could not win for dog catcher in Florida

    • Marian

      August 18, 2021 at 10:51 am

      Right on!

    • Val

      August 18, 2021 at 5:25 pm

      ABSOLUTELY! This senile pathetic waste of space 50 year FAILURE is a joke!! Afghanistan??? SOUTHERN BORDER? INFLATION? CLOSED USA ENERGY BEG OTHERS? TRILLIONS OF OUR MONEY WASTED?? WTF? ME GET COVID SHOT? CAUSE BIDEN SAID? WHEN HE AND HARRIS SAID THEY WOULDNT? PATHETIC!! I WILL NEVER LUSTEN TO THIS PATHETIC PIECE OF CRAP ON VACATION? PROMPTER? CANT SPEAK? SLURS? HE WANTED TO BE REMEMBERED… HE WILL AS THE MOST PATHETIC IGNORANT DESTRUCTIVE PERSON EVER IN USA HISTORY!!! WE NEED TO REMOVE HIM FROM OFFICE ASAP! BEFORE HE DESTROYS US MORE!

  • Ron Ogden

    August 18, 2021 at 8:40 am

    Joe Biden would lose Florida the same way he lost Afghanistan– shamefully. He and his team would be exposed for their incompetence and disconnection from reality.
    I don’t know how much FLAPOL spends when you commission these polls, nor do I understand why except for click bait, but I doubt it can be very much.

  • Zhombre

    August 18, 2021 at 8:40 am

    Orange Man Bad

  • Floyd

    August 18, 2021 at 9:01 am

    Poll was heavy waited in Orlando and Tampa which during 2020 race was heavy Democratic. .Nonsence POLL

    • Harry

      August 18, 2021 at 4:02 pm

      if you don’t know enough to spell “weighted” and “nonsense” correctly, why would anyone listen to anything else you say?

      • JD

        August 25, 2021 at 2:47 pm

        You don’t get it, Harry. Trump’s strength is that he appeals to the ignorant and paranoid. To them, anyone with some success in school is an “elitist.”

  • abert m

    August 18, 2021 at 9:11 am

    St. Pete polls are a joke got every major state wide races wrong in last two election cycles. Heavly tilted towards dems it means marco is up by at least 6 or more.

    • Tom

      August 18, 2021 at 9:56 am

      Clearly, set up by to convey a political promotion and advocacy.
      Robo calls, totally sandbag.
      Unless mixed by half with live calls and balanced sample size.
      Obviously, calling major cities, urban areas strong Dem areas. Totally partisan polling for purpose. They will have Crist and Fraud up by 20 pts.
      Fake news, fake polling.

  • Tom P.

    August 18, 2021 at 9:19 am

    Run that poll today. Biden would lose by 10 points after his Afghanistan debacle!

  • Hope & Change

    August 18, 2021 at 9:31 am

    Gaslighting

    • Tom

      August 18, 2021 at 9:38 am

      You are an idiot. But typical for lib extremists.

  • Tom

    August 18, 2021 at 9:36 am

    Yes Palmer, correct.
    The Repubs will win 30to 40 seats net, in U.S. House. The Senate will flip GOP.
    DeSantis will Win by 10pts. This abandonment in Afghanistan is a 50 to 75 yr moment in foreign policy. Allowing over 2 million to walk across the border and abandoning U.S. citizens and allies in Afghanistan is horrific. Come on all you liberal extremists defend your guy! This was not a either, or Proposition. It’s called a phase down, with Getting our people out. What a horrendous act. This is real impeachment. Will Pelosi have a commission? Of course not.
    What a joke. You Dums are an embarrassment.
    President Kennedy said, victory has a 1000 fathers, defeat is a orphan. POTUS owns it.

  • Bob

    August 18, 2021 at 10:33 am

    thats funny. I just read another article that stated the reverse.

  • Matthew Lusk

    August 18, 2021 at 11:05 am

    Is this an attempt at science? Lol

  • Hugh Dumas

    August 18, 2021 at 1:30 pm

    Let me get this straight… there are people out there who STILL haven’t figured out that Trump is an incompetent, wannabe autocratic con man, and that we should demand better from the Republican party than this pathetic batch of science-denying, race-baiting panderers of anti-American trash? Wow. Wow! WOW. Y’all are some sad, fearful, and ignorant folks! In 10 years, you will be ashamed to admit that you supported this idiot, and you will lie about doing so, so why not make today the first day you cease the stupidity? There is no time like the present.

    • Trump won

      August 22, 2021 at 9:48 pm

      Race baiting? What mindless cnn-ite told you that?

  • Hunter Scumbag

    August 18, 2021 at 8:02 pm

    A more accurate headline BUSH LEAGUE POLL HAS JOE BIDEN WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR WINNING FLORIDA OVER TRUMP.

    Your not a journalist. You’re a fantasy writer.

  • Deirdre O’Shea

    August 18, 2021 at 8:40 pm

    Who put this poll together?
    Nice try.

  • Paul Disidoro

    August 18, 2021 at 10:00 pm

    Biden a pathetic human being who doesn’t belong in the office.. O did we forget about Hunter and the criminal investigation..Where is it … You libs better rebrand yourselfs get ready for the on slaughter in next two elections

    • Jim

      August 19, 2021 at 6:12 pm

      Nobody care about Afghanistan, Donny Trump, criminal investigation is going on Trump and his Bonnie.

  • James Webb

    August 19, 2021 at 6:35 am

    The reporter has a personal agenda and is a registered democrat. He is also s hard core socialist

  • JoAnne

    August 19, 2021 at 9:03 am

    Lol You wish. Not going to happen. Propaganda works best when the lie is repeated consistently. Keep it up however it’s not working. As a former Democratic caucus member, I would rather die than vote for a Democrat now.

  • martin

    August 20, 2021 at 3:00 pm

    The author of this fake news article is the definition of Bovine Scatology!

  • Seriously?

    August 22, 2021 at 9:52 pm

    Let’s see the actual data behind this poll.

  • Mary

    August 27, 2021 at 10:25 pm

    Biden should not be able to ever run for office again PERIOD!!!! He is deranged but Kanela
    Or acts like she is on a real HI! She loves BLM and cares nothing about the hard working business owners they destroyed and raised bail for them and promotes them in every way!!!
    IT is TERROR in the United States for those who love America and are hard working people who will not be a able to make a living due to high taxes, Covid that we need to know that not only China is responsible for Covid too!!! Wake up Americans who love our Country and only God if we change our ways and stop killing babies and ask forgiveness HE will heal our land! This is America’s only hope!

Comments are closed.


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