A.G. Gancarski
Gov. Ron DeSantis continues to shine in polls of potential 2024 presidential candidates with an Arizona survey showing him as the frontrunner if Donald Trump does not run for re-election.
An online survey of 252 Republican likely voters conducted Nov. 1–8 by OH Predictive Insights showed DeSantis has more traction than any other potential candidate with Trump in the field, but is far better off without him.
Six in 10 Republicans polled want Trump to run again, and that desire translates into support. Against a crowded field of hopefuls, Trump is the choice of 48%, with DeSantis at 16%.
The Governor is the only candidate in double digits. Former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley, U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz, Mitt Romney, and Marco Rubio, U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie all lagged well behind.
Pence and Haley, at 9% and 6%, ran third and fourth; Rubio was an afterthought, with 2% support.
Could support coalesce around DeSantis?
“In a fractured Primary field, it is easy to see how Donald Trump could walk away with the 2024 nomination,” said data analyst Jacob Joss. “Yet, despite Trump earning 48% of Republicans’ support, what pro-Trump Republicans should be most concerned about — and anti-Trump Republicans should be most hopeful for — is the remaining 52% of GOP voters uniting around one non-Trump candidate.”
Without Trump, DeSantis is the top choice among Arizona Republicans, with only Pence even close. DeSantis has 29% support, eight points ahead of Pence and 19 ahead of Cruz. Some polling shows Pence ahead of DeSantis, but this Arizona survey tracks with the majority of surveys that favor Florida’s Governor.
Rubio is still at 2% without Trump in the Arizona poll, further underscoring the seeming reality that there is one ticket to the Republican Primary for incumbent Florida politicians, and that ticket likely belongs to DeSantis.
DeSantis continues to say he has no interest in running for President, though he has been campaigning to the contrary.
