Mike Pence tops Ron DeSantis by double digits in poll of 2024 contenders
Image via AP.

DeSantis pence
Is this poll an outlier? Or sign of a larger trend?

For months now, polling of a hypothetical 2024 Republican presidential primary field has shown Gov. Ron DeSantis as second only to former President Donald Trump.

But one survey released Monday shows a deviation to DeSantis’ detriment, with the Florida Governor down more than double digits to one candidate.

Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence is the non-Trump favorite in a poll of 490 Republican registered voters. They were surveyed by the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll on Sept. 15 and 16. The margin of error for the sample of Republicans is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Pence trumps DeSantis with or without the former President in the field.

Trump drew 58% support when included, compared to Pence’s 13% and DeSantis’ 9%. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio showed up near the bottom alongside former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, both with 3% support

Sans Trump, Pence secured 32% support, while DeSantis had just 20%. Pence’s margin tripled.

This indicates that Pence, not DeSantis, is drawing a higher proportion of those who saw Trump as a first choice in this survey.

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz was at 14% in the Trump-less survey, meanwhile, showing further diffusion of The Donald’s support when he’s not a factor.

The poll was released exclusively to The Hill, which did not release cross tabs or further details. DeSantis was an afterthought in the analysis of the survey, which focused on Trumpism and the Republican Party, not the Florida Governor.

For those invested in the mechanics of DeSantis parlaying an easy reelection into a glide path to the Republican Presidential nomination, the survey is a reminder of the treacherous path ahead.

DeSantis effectively branded as an anti-Joe Biden leader after Trump’s electoral defeat in 2020, “standing in Biden’s way” on numerous issues since the Democrat’s inauguration in January. But of late, he has been seeing diminishing returns.

His odds of becoming President have fallen off peaks earlier this year, assert bookies. However, the betting markets did not see Pence overtaking DeSantis quite yet.

There is evidence that polling is a leading indicator for prediction markets and bettors cooling on a candidate, and it will be worth watching to see if investors see the Pence-friendly result here as an outlier or a sign of larger trends shifting against DeSantis toward the rest of the field.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


  • Janet

    September 21, 2021 at 2:24 am

    They are brain washed

  • Pedro

    September 21, 2021 at 3:37 am

    The only acceptable Republicans are Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, the two with the courage to fight the big lie that Trump won the election.

    • peter smith

      September 21, 2021 at 5:26 am

      thats because Trump DID win the election!!

      • Alex

        September 21, 2021 at 4:06 pm


      • Todd

        September 22, 2021 at 3:53 pm

        He sure did!

        • Alex

          September 22, 2021 at 5:31 pm

          All you and Trump need to do is prove it in court.

          Trump tried 62 times, and usually got berated by the Judge for wasting the courts time with horseshit, and none of them got anywhere near succeeding.

          He has proven fraud exactly zero times.

          Not once, null set, goose egg.

    • Tom

      September 21, 2021 at 5:46 am

      Looks like another sabotage poll. Harris poll is a far left Dem polling firm. Harvard not a conservative friend.

      DeSantis defeats Pence if 45 is a no go. Won’t be close.

    • Alex

      September 21, 2021 at 2:35 pm

      Republicans are desperate to stay in power, so much so they’ll shit all over our most fundamental institutions, and pretend it’s patriotism.

      • Paul

        September 21, 2021 at 3:29 pm

        Stay in power??? The Democrats control the House the Senate and the Presidency. What world are you living in?

        • Alex

          September 21, 2021 at 4:05 pm

          You haven’t been paying attention huh?

          Between making voting harder, passing laws to control local election officials, gerrymandering, voter ID, ACTUAL election fraud, and campaign law violations, Republicans are cheating their fat assess off.

          • Tom

            September 23, 2021 at 6:06 am

            Total lies.
            You distort everything.
            Voter ID is appropriate, lawful.
            Dems Gerrymander regularly.
            Dems have fraud.
            Repubs are not fat.
            That’s your side.
            Alex the socialist.

    • Peggy Stewart

      September 21, 2021 at 3:50 pm

      Do you at least get paid for making such an arse of yourself, or is it a volunteer post ???

    • Brian Brady

      September 22, 2021 at 7:42 pm

      Are you a Republican voter, Pedro?

  • LD

    September 21, 2021 at 8:01 am

    Never trust a poll, any poll.

  • Chris

    September 21, 2021 at 8:36 am

    Pence polls would never be impacted by Trump. However as it looks more likely Trump is running again, a voter had to decide between Trump or DeSantis. Trump will win that decision in most cases.

    People voting for eGOP like Pence would never pick DeSantis or Trump in a primary. I know because that is exactly how I voted in 2016.

  • cadel

    September 21, 2021 at 10:02 am

    This poll is BS. Pence is no more liked than Liz Cheney. DeSantis is the bomb!

    DeSantis = Freedom
    Pence = More Socialism

    • nail

      September 23, 2021 at 8:22 am

      desantis decided to hire a putz as the Surgeon General. He just said that if a child has covid, he can go to school. That’s going to draw a lot of votes for desantis.
      He needs mental help. He’ wants to see how many kids he can kill before he is arrested for willful negiigence.

  • Linda Cirulli-Burton

    September 21, 2021 at 10:16 am

    I am developing some serious lines in my forehead due to rolling eyes. Keep on fighting the Marxist regime that is pursuing every angle to destroy Florida and the USA. Governor, you are a true champ. And, yes, I voted for Biden/Harris and am a lifelong Democrat. But I saw the light! And the light is DeSantis.

  • Pablo

    September 21, 2021 at 10:52 am

    Not appreciating my right to die of Covid Ron!

  • putintame

    September 21, 2021 at 11:19 am

    Wow, is this a whopper of a lie. No conservative will ever vote for Judas Pence, no matter how hard the author shills and gaslights the world

    • Alex

      September 21, 2021 at 4:30 pm

      The last real conservatives despise Trump and his idiot Cult.

      Most of them switched to Independent years ago.

  • Don Adams

    September 21, 2021 at 11:32 am

    I’m a lifelong Reagan conservative and I’d vote for Pence over Trump, DeSantis, and goofball Cruz in a heartbeat.

    I pr efer Cheney or Sasse–but I’ll vote for Pence if they don’t run.

    • Greg

      September 21, 2021 at 8:12 pm

      In the words of an incredulous John McEnroe, cYou cannot be serious!!!

  • Jonathan

    September 21, 2021 at 12:24 pm

    Why not Doctor Senator Ron Paul?
    He has a proven track record, is a sincere and honest American who
    really cares about our country.
    DeSantis could make a splendid V.P> Better than the too meek Pence did.

    • Alex

      September 21, 2021 at 4:24 pm

      The flaming idiot who accused Fauci of working with China to develop and release covid19 on the world?


      He’s crazier than his loony dad.

  • Alex

    September 21, 2021 at 12:57 pm


    Republicans have no fucking idea what they want.

      • Dee Camp

        September 21, 2021 at 3:59 pm

        This is from January. Slow Joe the Chile Sniffer Buyer’s remorse has certainly elevated Trumps support. Recent polls show him with more support than the inept Idiot failure we have now.

        • Alex

          September 21, 2021 at 4:14 pm


          Suddenly a far right Trumplicker believes polls?

      • Tom

        September 22, 2021 at 8:57 pm

        You are mental Alex.
        Biden is In free fall.
        40 to 50 net House seats flipping to GOP, but be a the child you are.

      • Tom

        September 22, 2021 at 10:57 pm

        The only one who spews hate is you Alex.

      • Tom

        September 22, 2021 at 11:07 pm

        Just like you Alex, you take his worst time at worse moment and try to use it. Real clear politics had Trump in mid 40’s to high 40’s overall approval. On economy he was low 50’s.

        You are mentally incapable and unable to not discuss and dwell on Trump. You need help.

        Biden has been President for 10 months. He’s disaster.

        Border surrender.
        Afghanistan surrender.
        Jobs, Unemployment, high minority unemployment.
        Fiscal insanity.
        High gas
        Just to name a few.

  • Dee Camp

    September 21, 2021 at 3:56 pm

    Oh please. A poll of 490 people on one day? garbage in, garbage out.

    • Alex

      September 21, 2021 at 4:15 pm

      Thanks for making my point honey.


  • Dennis Carson

    September 21, 2021 at 4:29 pm

    I have been posting Pence as favorite for months. Trump will be dumbfounded when Pence is his opponent. Pence is the Republicans only chance in 2024.

  • zhombre

    September 21, 2021 at 7:09 pm

    The election is three years away. Polls now mean little, if anything.
    Biden will quite likely succumb in the interim, of a stroke or another aneurysm. His administration is already imploding.

    • Alex

      September 21, 2021 at 8:11 pm

      Because you said so.


  • Tom

    September 22, 2021 at 8:51 pm

    Maxwell Smart, I mean Don Adams you can just go join the Dem A Dolts please. I’m a Reagan conservative and I want the strongest voice for our cause.

    Are you freaking kidding, Cheney or Sasse.
    Pathetic sell outs.

Comments are closed.


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