Gov. Ron DeSantis continues to surge in a key 2024 prediction market, drawing even with President Joe Biden on the PredictIt platform as of Thursday.
“Yes” shares for DeSantis and Biden are both priced at 24 cents, putting each six points behind current leader Donald Trump. A “yes” share on the former President currently is priced at 30 cents. Those prices correspond to the percentage odds each has of winning the presidency, with one cent equaling one percent.
Behind the big three are a field of afterthoughts. A “yes” share for Vice President Kamala Harris is priced at 10 cents (or 10% chance), while a “yes” share for Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is priced at just 6 cents (or 6%).
Trump has been a relative constant in the field, hovering around the 30-cent mark. But DeSantis has surged over time as President Biden has struggled to control his administration’s narrative on numerous fronts.
DeSantis eclipsed Harris in the estimation of investors last October and pulled closer to Biden. Barring a reversal in each man’s political fortunes, the Governor is likely to pass the former President at some point.
Recent head-to-head polling has shown DeSantis competitive with Biden. A Morning Consult/POLITICO survey showed Biden ahead overall, 44% to 39%. However, the Governor led Biden with independents, 36% to 35%.
As DeSantis surges in the overall 2024 prediction market, he shows commensurate momentum in others as well.
Continuing an ongoing trend, DeSantis is running a strong second with PredictIt players on the question of the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. A DeSantis “yes” share, priced in that market at 31 cents, puts the Governor just six cents shy of Trump.
No other Republican hopefuls are even over the 10-cent threshold. Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott are priced at 3 cents and 2 cents, respectively, a function of their current longshot status.
PredictIt investors also expect DeSantis to breeze to re-election.
DeSantis “yes” shares in that race are valued at 86 cents, the highest level that proposition has reached. Every potential Democratic challenger is priced under 10 cents.