Donald Trump still the chalk for 2024, but Ron DeSantis’ odds continue to improve
Is Ron DeSantis poised to upstage Donald Trump?

The markets are moving in the right direction for the Florida Republican.

Gov. Ron DeSantis’ odds to win the Republican nod for President in 2024 are increasing. But former President Donald Trump remains the odds-on favorite — for now.

That’s according to BoyleSports, which has DeSantis’ odds of winning the next presidential election at 13/2, or a probability of 13.33%. That still puts him behind Trump, who leads contenders with 3/1 odds, or 25%, and Democratic President Joe Biden, whose odds sit at 5/1, about 16.67%.

That’s a move in the right direction for DeSantis, whose odds have improved from last week’s 10/1, or 9.09%. And it makes him more likely to win the presidential election than any candidate in America who hasn’t already held the office.

“Donald Trump is still leading the race for the Republicans according to the betting, but he isn’t as hot a favorite as he once was,” said Lawrence Lyons, a spokesman for BoyleSports. “Ron DeSantis is the name we keep hearing and he’s the candidate trending in the right direction at this stage, so we’ve had no choice but to cut the odds on him being the Republican name on the ticket.”

Asked just about the GOP nomination in 2024, Trump again has better odds than DeSantis. Betters give the ex-President odds of 11/10, or a probability of 47.62% of winning the nod. But DeSantis’ odds improved to 4/1, or a 20% chance. Behind DeSantis are former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 9/1, or 10%, and former Vice President Mike Pence at 12/1, or 7.69%. Haley notably signaled last year that she will not run if Trump does, but neither DeSantis nor Pence has made such a pledge.

Lyons attributed the leap in the gambling set partly to a recent poll showing Trump leading DeSantis among Florida Republicans, but by a modest 47% to the sitting Governor’s 40%.

DeSantis has a lead on every Democrat except Biden in the overall chances to be the next President. Vice President Kamala Harris holds 8/1 odds, or an 11.11% probability of winning the next presidential election. But unless Biden chooses not to run for a second term, she isn’t expected to run. Still, her odds remain higher than any Republican except Trump or DeSantis.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


  • Trump Won

    February 11, 2022 at 1:11 pm

    I still haven’t moved on from 2020…
    Or 2018…
    Or 2016…
    Or 2014…
    Or 2012…
    Or 2010…
    Or 2008…
    Or 2006…
    Or 2004…
    Or 2002…

    Fool me once, shame on – shame on you.

  • Chris Lohse

    February 12, 2022 at 11:11 pm

    Only shook me up a little Linda lohse didn’t mean to piss off doctor Comstock md Santa Ana Calif orange county Riverview hospital but Chad trijilio scientist infant taking blame for jim lohse father the profit saint Christopher Alan lohse and male child Christopher Alan lohse July 19 1970 901 am birth certificate premature infant decieved Chad got adult jaundes from Christopher musterd I won’t mess up again and do evil to my in front of you again Trump if this artical don’t worry didn’t feel a thing

Comments are closed.


Florida Politics is a statewide, new media platform covering campaigns, elections, government, policy, and lobbying in Florida. This platform and all of its content are owned by Extensive Enterprises Media.

Publisher: Peter Schorsch @PeterSchorschFL

Contributors & reporters: Phil Ammann, Roseanne Dunkelberger, A.G. Gancarski, Anne Geggis, Kelly Hayes, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, Gray Rohrer, Jesse Scheckner, Christine Sexton, Andrew Wilson, Wes Wolfe, and Mike Wright.

Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @PeterSchorschFL
Phone: (727) 642-3162
Address: 204 37th Avenue North #182
St. Petersburg, Florida 33704

Sign up for Sunburn