Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio heavy re-election favorites in prediction market

At this point, both Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio are on solid footing.

A prediction market suggests Gov. Ron DeSantis and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio are sailing to re-election later this year, highlighting the incumbents’ heavy favorite status Wednesday.

PredictIt, which allows users to buy “yes” or “no” shares on a given candidate’s electoral chances, suggests neither the Senator nor the Governor faces a serious challenge in November.

The 2022 gubernatorial market, which DeSantis has dominated since it opened, is increasingly becoming a tale of just two candidates for investors. A “yes” share for DeSantis is priced at 88 cents, which translates to an 88% chance DeSantis wins in November. That’s far ahead of Democrat Charlie Crist, at 11 cents. Meanwhile, Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried is free-falling, with a “yes” share valued at just 6 cents.

The Senate market is not yet broken down as a matchup between Rubio and expected Democratic nominee Val Demings. The site still uses party identification in place of candidate listings. However, despite not having names attached, the trend is clear to PredictIt’s in-house analyst.

“Over the past 90 days, Rubio’s contract represented in the market tracking the Senate election in Florida has gained 6 (cents) to close on Tuesday at 90 (cents). Meanwhile, the corresponding Democrat contract — likely to be Demings — has fallen 6 (cents) to close at 10 (cents). This suggests that (Joe) Biden’s poor polling and Demings’ current lack of statewide name recognition are really contributing to trader’s belief that Rubio is a strong favorite at the moment,” the tip sheet says.

Among the drags on Demings are “unaffiliated” voters, who polling shows as “hostile” to President Biden. Demings’ relative unknown status statewide also shakes investor confidence.

“Demings is viewed favorably by only 27% of those polled, and perhaps more importantly, nearly a third of Florida voters do not recognize her name,” the analysis holds, referring to a fresh Mason-Dixon survey of the race.