A.G. Gancarski
While the 2022 General Election is still more than six months away, Republican incumbents remain heavy favorites in a leading prediction market.
Both Gov. Ron DeSantis and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio have commanding leads over Democratic counterparts on the PredictIt platform. These advantages have expanded over time and show no immediate indication of reversal.
The Senate market does not name Rubio or expected Democratic nominee Val Demings, a Congresswoman and former Police Chief from Orlando, but uses party indicators to gauge investor confidence.
A “Yes” share for Republicans is priced at 92 cents, against 9 cents for a “No” share. The dynamic reverses for the Democratic position, where a “Yes” share costs a dime and a “No” is priced at 92 cents. These positions have diverged increasingly in recent months.
A similar dynamic is in play in the gubernatorial market, where incumbent DeSantis continues to consolidate investor confidence while a trio of Democrats struggle in his wake.
DeSantis “Yes” shares are valued at 91 cents, up 8 cents from the 90-day low in early January. A “No” share costs a dime, meanwhile, which is more than a “Yes” share for any of the three major Democratic candidates.
Former Governor and current U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist is the most popular “Yes” for contrarian investors, and those shares are valued at just 7 cents. They have been priced as high as 10 cents in the last 90 days.
Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried continues to fade, meanwhile. A “Yes” share now is just 4 cents for her. A “Yes” share for her has been as high as 8 cents in the last 90 days, and it never has been lower than now. A Fried “No” is priced at 97 cents.
State Sen. Annette Taddeo is even farther back in the estimation of this market. A “No” share cannot be bought, while a “Yes” is priced at just one cent. This ties her with Demings, who is not even running for Governor.
13 comments
just sayin
April 14, 2022 at 8:02 am
Nothing to see here, Dems. Carry on like you’ve been doing. The real issue is you haven’t been progressive enough.
Impeach Biden
April 14, 2022 at 8:35 am
You are correct. Put AOC, Jayapal, Omar, Tlaib, Bush, etc at the forefront of the progressive Dems. That’s their future.🤣
Tom
April 14, 2022 at 10:17 pm
LMAO, “just saying”.
That’s the problem fool.
Carrying like they are doing.
Clueless, laughing, yeah be more extreme. That’s a real loser.
Tom
April 14, 2022 at 10:20 pm
LMAO, just saying.
That’s the problem fool.
They have no constituency.
jay
April 14, 2022 at 7:31 pm
Is Florida the stupid state.
Impeach Biden
April 14, 2022 at 7:58 pm
Please leave. We don’t want your destructive Democratic policies here. No Portland. No Seattle. No Los Angeles. No Chicago. No New York City. Go back to your genius city.
joey
April 18, 2022 at 10:41 pm
Lol What you got? The state with lowest income? High Rent ? Can’t buy a insurance for your house? A governor that think he is a king? I Am American I dont have to leave. I move to any state I want. But I am in New York because Florida is a swamp. Lol. New York is the capital.of the world. You keep your mosquitos lol.
Brian Brady
April 15, 2022 at 8:42 am
Yes, we are stupid. We will re-elect an articulate, principled, Yale/Harvard educated, former Naval officer as Governor.
Impeach Biden
April 15, 2022 at 9:48 pm
Well said. Remember these are Democrats if given the chance would vote for Andrew Gillum again. Just think what would be going on here in Florida of if that drug addicted and boy toy addicted man was elected as Governor.
Walpurgis
April 16, 2022 at 5:03 pm
The nominal Governor “articulates” his specious declarations in a petulant whine, alike the late petulant whiner for whom Florida state flags were lowered at half-staff, Rush effing Limbaugh. The nominal Governor didn’t learn the “dumb ‘em down, rile ‘em up” technique up at Harvard and Yale, nor there did he acquire a conscience or a soul.
joey
April 18, 2022 at 10:43 pm
You standards are to low. Educated? LOL.
Frankie M.
April 15, 2022 at 11:26 am
I’m old enough to remember polls that had Hillary in a cakewalk over Trump. The only poll that matters is on election day. I can’t remember who said that…oh wait it was Trump.
Tom
April 15, 2022 at 7:52 pm
Biden’s abysmal numbers will not allow a Dem dum Manchurian victory.
He’s at 36% approval in Florida, CNBC and Quinnipiac have his national numbers below Florida’s, at 33%. Dem partisan pollsters both. Independents and Hispanics are abandoning Biden/Dems.
Regardless, America’s Gov is 95% with Repubs, he’s at high 50’s with independents. 50% plus with Hispanics, African Americans bout 30% of vote.
You can cross your fingers. Ain’t gonna happen!
Dums have huge losses coming beginning in Florida.
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