Former President Donald Trump may be the front-runner for the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination, but a fresh poll from New Hampshire suggests his support is too soft.
The Courageous Conservatives PAC spotlighted a Granite State survey with analysis saying that while Trump was ahead in the state, it wasn’t by enough and the trends were ugly.
“Trump led DeSantis 41-22 in our New Hampshire poll, showing voters there are more focused than in Iowa with a 38-17 race. 36% of likely Iowa caucus voters are undecided, versus just 30% in New Hampshire,” read a post from the group’s Facebook page that also referenced previous polling.
“Neither one of these results is good news for President Trump, who should be scoring well above 50 as he was in Iowa in our November poll,” the post continued. “That DeSantis is now getting more than half the Trump vote is not only a problem for Trump, but for others hoping to enter the race unable to find oxygen or traction.”
The Courageous Conservatives PAC, a vehicle for the 2016 Ted Cruz campaign that has shifted much of the focus of its Facebook page to celebrations of DeSantis, polled 475 likely caucus attendees from July 5 through July 13. This was a live caller survey allowing for open-ended answers, as opposed to listed multiple choice selections, suggesting Republicans need less prompting to shop around post-Trump.
The “Top 3” survey here shows DeSantis even closer to Trump, drawing 42% support, 9 points behind Trump. No other name got more than 2.5% even on the “Top 3,” suggesting this is a two-man race. That corroborates the trend of a University of New Hampshire poll that showed DeSantis over Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.
The same trend of unprompted movement to DeSantis could be seen in Iowa polling by this same group regarding the “Top 3” schematic. Trump commanded 44% support, with DeSantis at 33%. That was a 25-point swing from the 65% to 29% advantage Trump had last fall in the same poll.
These surveys continue to inform a larger trend, which is that Trump increasingly can’t get majority support and DeSantis builds while the other potential candidates fail to spark excitement.