Another poll shows Laurel Lee as the heavy favorite to win a Republican Primary in Florida’s 15th Congressional District.
Victory Insights released a poll of the race. The poll shows veteran Demetries Grimes performing better than some other polls indicate, but still in third place.
Pollsters found almost 36% of likely Republican voters favoring Lee, a former Secretary of State. It shows state Sen. Kelli Stargel in second place with more than 17% but Grimes, an Afghanistan veteran and diplomat, close behind at just under 17%. Another veteran, Kevin “Mac” McGovern, shows at fourth place with around 6% of the vote and state Rep. Jackie Toledo comes in last with over 5%.
“Clearly, there are three tiers of candidates,” a polling memo states.
“First, Laurel Lee is the obvious frontrunner with 35.8% of the vote. Then, Stargel leads Grimes by 0.7%, but both candidates are squarely within each other’s margin of error. Then, McGovern and Toledo make up the final tier of candidates, each garnering a vote share in the single digits. Just under 1 in every 5 voters remain undecided. How these voters break could change the dynamics of this race (e.g. Toledo’s incumbency could give her a boost due to sheer Name ID), but there’s no question that Lee is the extremely heavy favorite.”
In simulations run by the polling outfit, Lee wins in more than 99% of scenarios.
This poll also shows she has also quickly built up name recognition and a strong net favorability rating. About 52% of those surveyed for the poll hold a positive view of Lee, and 19% have a negative opinion.
That’s after voters have been barraged by positive and negative mailers primarily about the three state officials in the race: Lee, Stargel and Toledo.
The poll shows 32% have a favorable view of Stargel and 27% hold a negative view. Meanwhile, 15% hold a positive view of Toledo and 28% have a poor view.
Meanwhile, 26% hold a positive view of Grimes, compared to just 10% with a negative view, and 14% think well of McGovern while 9% think badly of him.