Staff Reports
Good Sunday morning and welcome back to “Brunch,” a pop-up newsletter about the 2022 campaign cycle in Florida, as well as other important information about Florida politics.
My favorite political gathering of the year — the Florida Chamber of Commerce Future of Florida Forum — takes place this week. And with Halloween around the corner and Election Day two weeks away, this truly is one of the most exciting times of the year.
I’m on a panel Tuesday at FFF, so please stop by and say hello if you are in Orlando.
Be sure to check out this week’s picks for the Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics (click here).
Happy birthday to our friend Brian Rimes (Jim’s brother). Michelle and I always look forward to our Memorial Day Weekend get-together with Jim and Brian the rest of the Rimes clan.
Now, here’s Brunch.
— Chamber —
As I mentioned above, The Florida Chamber of Commerce’s 2022 Future of Florida Forum kicks off tomorrow morning and will feature a day-and-a-half of in-depth presentations and panel discussions on where Florida is — and where it could be in 2030 — on everything from education and housing to infrastructure and sustainability. Here’s a small sample of what attendees will be hearing:
— No. 46. Florida’s legal climate ranks near the bottom and litigation is the biggest roadblock preventing the state from rocketing into the Top 12 by 2030. Many also consider it the culprit in the property insurance tailspin. American Tort Reform Association President Sherman “Tiger” Joyce will take the stage to discuss how Florida can tackle the current crisis by fighting back against frivolous litigation.
— 50%. That’s the statewide kindergarten readiness rate, but the Florida Chamber Foundation hopes to boost it to 100% by 2030. The Children’s Movement founder and Chair David Lawrence Jr. will speak about how the state can hit that goal Monday morning.
— No. 4. That’s Florida’s ranking in technology jobs. The 2030 Blueprint goal is for the state to break into the Top 3 by 2030, and that will require a workforce ready to fill the high-tech jobs of tomorrow. Miami-Dade College President Madeline Pumariega, Career Karma CEO Ruben Harris, and Handshake Global Director of Education Partnerships Michael Harbaugh will cover what that will take in a panel discussion titled “People in Tech: The Keys to the Future of Work in Florida.”
— 53%. The percentage of Florida families who spend more than 30% of their monthly on housing. The Future of Florida Forum will feature multiple discussions on the affordable housing crisis, including a presentation from ANF Group VP Arthur “AJ” Meyer on the “why” causing it and a talk by Humana Healthy Horizons in Florida Regional President Jocelyn Chisholm Carter on how businesses can take the lead in solving it.
The Future of Florida Forum will feature dozens more speakers and will also see the organization roll out an updated version of the Florida Gap Map, which offers users more than 100 metrics and data points zeroed in down to the ZIP code level. The Future of Florida Forum is being held in Orlando, but attendees can also register to attend virtually.
— DeSantis trumps Trump —
A Florida Atlantic University poll found that Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump lead Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup. The kicker: DeSantis’ lead is more substantial.
— The deets: The poll found DeSantis leading Biden with 48% support to 42% for Biden. Trump, meanwhile, claimed only a 4-percentage point lead at 45% to 41%.
— But why? Roughly 34% of respondents said the recent FBI search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago makes them less likely to support Trump if he runs again in 2024. A third of respondents said the raid would make them more likely to support Trump, while 33% said it would not make a difference.
— Underwater Biden: Both DeSantis and Trump benefit from Biden’s relative unpopularity. His approval rating in the poll sits at just 41%, while half of the respondents oppose Biden’s job performance.
FAU conducted the poll Oct. 12-16. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.65 percentage points and was weighted by ethnicity, age, education, party affiliation, region and gender, based on 2020 turnout modeling. —
— Barack Obama embraces Charlie Crist —
Former President Obama is looking to give some support for Crist’s underdog gubernatorial bid, throwing a video endorsement Crist’s way as he competes against incumbent Gov. DeSantis.
— Rallying the troops: “Charlie has two things I admire: guts and decency. Charlie Crist is fearless, guided by what’s right, even when it’s hard,” Obama says in the video. “So, if you’re ready for a Governor who cares about people instead of bullying them, who will fight for voting rights and a woman’s right to choose, who understands the challenges you’re facing every day and who will fight for you, vote for Charlie Crist.”
— To watch the ad, click on the image below:
— Digital footprint: The clip is headed for digital advertising as part of a fundraising and mobilization effort ahead of the Midterm Elections.
— Embracing the moment: The video ends with a clip of the infamous hug Obama and Crist, then Florida’s Republican Governor, exchanged in Feb. 2009 during an event to support the new President’s stimulus package. Crist has called the moment “the hug that killed my Republican career.”
Recent polls have shown DeSantis with a lead of 5 percentage points or more. According to the latest FAU poll, the incumbent is ahead by 11 points. He is also well ahead of Crist in the money race.
— The latest on the response to Ian —
— What? The Florida Housing Finance Corporation is awarding $5 million to local housing partners to help those impacted by Hurricane Ian pay home insurance deductibles in the six hardest-hit counties.
— Who? Funding assistance is available to individuals and families with low to moderate income, who live in one of the six counties hardest hit by Hurricane Ian and cannot afford to pay their insurance deductibles. They must apply and qualify through Florida Housing’s local housing partners.
— Where? Funding assistance is available to those living in Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Lee and Sarasota counties.
— How? As the state’s housing finance agency, Florida Housing annually receives funding from the Legislature for the SHIP program, of which $5 million is set aside to be used in the event of a natural disaster.
— DeSantis: “We know a lot of homeowners had coverage for the storm; however, insurance deductibles are expensive and often a gap not covered by other support. These funds will immediately help families and seniors with limited means get closer to recovery.”
Homeowners are encouraged to contact their local SHIP office directly for more information.
— Lynyrd Skynyrd ponies up —
Southern rock megastar Lynyrd Skynyrd is donating $100,000 to the Florida Disaster Fund to assist with Hurricane Ian recovery. The band announced the donation onstage at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood as part of their “Big Wheels Keep on Turning” tour.
— Seminole Tribe matches: The Seminole Tribe of Florida matched the band’s donation with its own $100,000 contribution to the fund.
— First Family joins the celebration: DeSantis and his family were welcomed onstage for a check presentation with band members.
— First Lady leads the way: Casey DeSantis has been leading fundraising efforts. “We appreciate the overwhelming support of the Florida Disaster Fund to help Floridians recover and rebuild,” she said. “We are committed to helping folks get back on their feet, and support from Lynyrd Skynyrd and the Seminole Tribe gets us closer to that goal and we thank them for their support.”
With the latest contributions in hand, the Florida Disaster Fund has now raised more than $45 million to help communities impacted by Hurricane Ian recover and rebuild. The fund is the state of Florida’s official private fund established to provide financial assistance to communities recovering from emergencies or disasters.
— New York Life relief —
New York Life Insurance Company is pledging $500,000 for Hurricane Ian relief efforts aimed at long-term recovery in communities impacted by the Category 4 hurricane earlier this month. They’re also matching up to $100,000 in workforce contributions.
— Funds for orgs: Of the contributions, $150,000 will go to Feeding Florida, an organization providing meals and essential food supplies to those in need. The American Red Cross will receive $100,000 for its on-the-ground relief efforts.
— Cash relief: New York Life customers are eligible for cash relief through emergency loans that can be taken against the value of their current policy to assist in recovery and rebuilding.
— Corporate Responsibility: “As people in affected communities begin to rebuild in the wake of Hurricane Ian, New York Life is committed to providing relief to those impacted the most,” said Heather Nesle, senior vice president of Corporate Responsibility, New York Life.
This isn’t the first time New York Life has gotten into the charity game. In 2021, the life insurance company provided more than $32 million in charitable contributions, including nearly $4 million for the COVID-19 pandemic and another disaster recovery in communities across the U.S.
— State Farm joins relief —
State Farm Insurance is donating $125,000 for Hurricane Ian relief, contributing to Convoy of Hope.
— People served: Convoy of Hope has served more than 80,000 people since Hurricane Ian made landfall in Southwest Florida and wreaked havoc on property, infrastructure and lives.
— Giving thanks: “This generous donation helps Convoy distribute more food, water and supplies to Floridians who were impacted by Hurricane Ian,” said Convoy of Hope’s Jamie Bilton. “We are very grateful for State Farm’s support, and it is our privilege to serve alongside a company that excels at helping people recover from the unexpected.”
— It’s their mission: “State Farm is pleased to support Convoy of Hope efforts to help our communities impacted by Hurricane Ian,” said State Farm corporate responsibility director, Apsara Sorensen. “Part of our mission is to help people recover from the unexpected. We hope this grant goes a long way in helping our community recover from the hurricane.”
Convoy of Hope has already responded to more than 50 natural disasters this year in the U.S. and globally.
— Cruz attack —
The Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee is out with a new ad supporting Jay Collins for Florida Senate District 14 and attacking incumbent Democrat Janet Cruz. The ad includes a testimonial from a “volunteer” with ties to the Jan. 6 Stop the Steal rally in Washington D.C.
— Attack and pivot: The ad begins with website images of an Act Blue fundraising page soliciting donations for Hurricane Ian relief efforts. The ad claims the page was attempting to “swindle people into sending money to a nonexistent charity” and called it a fundraising scam. The page has no affiliation with Cruz’s campaign.
— A questionable ally: The volunteer in the ad, Jeff Hawks, is a local conservative activist being sued for not reimbursing a failed Republican Congressional candidate for expenses incurred traveling to Washington D.C. for the Jan. 6 Stop the Steal rally, which ultimately devolved into the now infamous Capitol riots.
— Who is Hawks? Hawks founded the Tampa group Community Patriots, which touts itself as a “grassroots organization … motivated by a strong sense of pride and love for our Country and its Constitution.” Its mission is to preserve “liberty and freedom.” But it has been criticized for promoting, at times, violence.
— The argument: Hawks, in February 2021, put out a call on Facebook for members to attend a New Port Richey City Council meeting in response to public comment from members of the Black Lives Matter movement. One of them, Jason Duckworth, was arrested on a simple battery charge following an altercation with a group protesting the police, according to reporting from WMNF Community Radio.
— What about the lawsuit? Christine Quinn, a former Republican candidate for Florida’s 14th Congressional District, alleges she agreed to pay for Hawks and another member of Community Patriots to travel to Washington for the Stop the Steal rally in Washington D.C. on Jan. 6, 2021. Quinn says the group and its members never provided the promised reimbursements for travel expenses. She claims they told her they were supposed to be serving as “security detail” at the rally and that the group had “big donors” that would repay her within 30-days of the trip.
Still, the ad’s message will likely resonate, with images of Collins and volunteers handing out barbecue to hurricane survivors and a final sting: “Janet Cruz: Self-service. Jay Collins: Public service.”
—TV buys —
Campaigns are throwing everything they’ve got into 11th-hour ad campaigns. Florida voters don’t have to grin, but they do have to bear it for the next couple of weeks. Here’s a rundown of whose ads will show on TV and blasting through your car’s speakers this week.
— Governor: The Republican Party of Florida dropped $290K on a flight of cable ads backing DeSantis as well as Ashley Moody and Jimmy Patronis. They started running on Saturday and will continue through Nov. 6 in the Miami, West Palm Beach and Ft. Myers media markets.
— U.S. Senate: Rubio’s re-election campaign spent $1.65M on another round of broadcast ads. The new flight will run Tuesday through Monday in the Orlando, West Palm Beach, Miami, Jax, Tampa and Ft. Myers media markets. That follows a $290K cable buy that started Saturday and concludes on Halloween. Demings, meanwhile, put another $119K into cable ads that started airing Thursday and will continue through tomorrow. Her buy is spread across the Miami, Tampa and Orlando markets.
— CD 3: Republican U.S. Rep. Kat Cammack booked a $21K broadcast flight as she looks to cruise into another term representing Florida’s 3rd Congressional District. The ads will run Monday through Nov. 7 in the Jax media market.
— CD 26: Republican U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez is putting $21K into TV ads supporting his campaign for another term in Florida’s 26th Congressional District. The buy will place his ads on broadcast Tuesday through Monday in the Miami media market.
— CD 27: A political committee backing incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar dropped $46K on a radio ad campaign running through Election Day. According to AdImpact, LIBRE PAC’s buy includes Spanish-language news and sports talk radio stations in the Miami media market.
— Monday: Midterms on the mind —
Early voting kicks off Monday for the 2022 Midterms in over half of Florida’s 67 counties.
— Which counties open polls Monday? Alachua, Bay, Bradford, Brevard, Broward, Calhoun, Charlotte, DeSoto, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Hendry, Hillsborough, Indian River, Jefferson, Lake, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Manatee, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okaloosa, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Lucie and Taylor counties. All counties are required to offer early voting by Oct. 29.
— DeSantis and Crist debate. Incumbent DeSantis and Democratic challenger Crist will hold their only debate before the General Election at 7 p.m. on Monday. It will be hosted by WPEC and will be broadcast throughout the state.
— Senate Minority Leader Lauren Book makes announcement. Book will join Democratic Senate candidates Loranne Ausley, Joy Goff–Marcil, Janelle Perez and Raquel Pacheco at a news conference to make a big announcement Monday at 10 a.m.
— America First Women’s Initiative —
Women supporting Donald Trump’s MAGA movement will visit Tampa Monday for an event titled, “Advancing an Agenda for All Women and for America.”
— The guest list: Featured guests include former Attorney General Pam Bondi, former Senior Counselor to President Trump Kellyanne Conway, Alveda King and Linda McMahon, who served in the Small Business Administration.
— Where and when? Doors will open at 5 p.m., Monday, Oct. 24. Armature Works will host the event. That venue is located at 1910 N. Ola Ave. in Tampa.
— Also on hand: Trump administration alums Brooke Rollins, Carla Sands and Paula White will also attend. Trump has not formally declared his intentions for 2024, but the event comes just over two weeks before the Midterm Elections.
— Less snap than ever —
The South Atlantic Fishery Management Council (SAFMC) Snapper-Grouper Advisory Panel held their collective nose and voted to support catch limits for the next several years that mean even further reductions in red snapper harvesting in federal waters from the North Carolina Outer Banks to the Florida Keys.
— ‘Disgusted’: The move all but ends any sort of recreational red snapper season for 2023 and possibly other years, while cutting the commercial take by around half. Other options available to the Panel were worse, and they couldn’t choose not to act. “I hope that in the minutes from this meeting that it’s reflected how disgusted the AP is with having to choose something like this,” a Panel member and Florida commercial fisherman said following the vote.
— Required by law: The Magnuson-Stevens Act, which governs federal fisheries, has certain specifications, and according to how the data’s interpreted, red snapper is overfished and undergoing overfishing because of the massive number of discards. Yet there are so many red snappers, they’re crowding out other species in the snapper-grouper fishery. It’s a Catch-22.
— Any hope? The best hope for anglers who want to open up the fishery is to keep working within the process to modify how red snapper’s managed, like what’s seen some success in the Gulf of Mexico. The bad news is none of that can occur quickly through this regulatory process, so it could be years until the process gets changed and Gulf-style recreational red snapper seasons are in the South Atlantic. The Council is expected to approve these catch limits as part of Amendment 35 in March.
— Brady bowing out? —
Is Tom Brady sticking around for next season? Yeah, those words will get your attention, and Brady said them aloud a couple of days ago following speculation he might retire in midseason.
— The remarks: “That’s really why I’m here: I’m here to announce, finally, you guys pushed me to the brink,” he kidded reporters at his regular news conference. “No, I love the sport, and I love the teammates, and I wanna go do a great job for this team like I always have. So, no retirement in my future.” Yeah, but several times this season, Brady failed the eyeball test and looked every bit like the 45-year-old quarterback that he is. Still, they don’t call him the G.O.A.T. — Greatest of All Time — for nothing.
— On the other hand: There was, however, that meltdown last week at Pittsburgh in a stunning 20-18 loss to Pittsburgh. The Steelers had lost four straight and played without several defensive starters in the secondary due to injuries. But the Bucs’ offensive line, which has had its issues, struggled to protect Brady, and even when they did, he sometimes missed open receivers. The frustration bubbled over in the second half when cameras caught Brady screaming at his offensive line on the sidelines. His demeanor was more like the Grumpiest of All Time. “I don’t know if it’s motivation, but I do think that it’s a bad day when there’s more F-bombs than touchdowns,” Brady said on his “Let’s Go,” podcast. “That was not one of my better days.”
— Off-field issues: And there are his issues with his wife, supermodel Gisele Bündchen. Apparently, she was miffed after Brady retired following last season, then unretired 40 days later. She is living apart from him and hired a divorce lawyer. Brady then did the same. Brady wouldn’t specifically say whether that affected his play, noting that “every season has its challenges.” However, that hasn’t stopped speculation that the split is weighing on his mind.
— All eyes on Brady: So, fans will be watching today when the Bucs travel to Carolina in a game that should be easy pickins’ for Tampa Bay. Carolina fired its coach two weeks ago and just traded the Panthers’ marquee player, Christian McCaffrey, to San Francisco. Of course, that’s what everyone thought about last week’s game with Pittsburgh, too. Brady has struggled at times during his career; everyone does. But anything less than a monster outing today keeps the jaws flapping with rumors about this or that. Oh, and if he continues to play next season, it won’t necessarily be with the Bucs. He becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2023.
— Brunching Out —
You don’t have to be a resident of Southwood to take advantage of the amenities at the community’s golf club, including live music on Friday nights, activities like bingo nights or eating at the club restaurant.
— Setting: Enjoy a leisurely Sunday morning either sitting inside or on the patio overlooking the golf course. It’s “tee time, not teatime” here.
— The menu: On Sundays, chef Dustin Blackstork offers MYO — Make Your Own Omelets — with a choice of toppings. My generous serving was packed with bacon, green peppers, mushrooms and American cheese (with more melted on top). You can also order from the regular menu, so we added french fries and decadent fried cheese curds. On the last Sunday of the month, the club offers three or four brunch specials such as orange or banana walnut pancakes, breakfast fondue biscuits or a cheeseburger hash. Since the last Sunday of the month is Oct. 30, the brunch will have a fall, Halloween theme.
— Beverages: Sunday drink specials are bottomless bloody marys and mimosas for $12.99.
— Details: Southwood Golf Club, 3750 Grove Park Dr.; 850-942-4653. Hours: Sunday brunch is from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. The restaurant stays open until 8 p.m. on October 23 and 30. Starting in November, the restaurant will close at 5 p.m. on Sundays. Other hours: 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. Monday and Tuesday (the bar stays open to 6 p.m. for cocktails), 11 a.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday, 11 a.m. to 10 p.m. Friday.
