Poll: Ron DeSantis held 11-point lead over Charlie Crist before Hurricane Ian

With just over a month remaining before Election Day, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis holds a commanding lead over his Democratic challenger, Charlie Crist, according to new polling data collected prior to Hurricane Ian’s arrival.

Jacksonville-based firm Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy surveyed 800 registered and likely Florida voters Sept. 26-28. The poll had a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

Of those polled, 52% said they will support DeSantis in the General Election and 41% said they are in Crist’s corner.

Just 1% of politically active Floridians are undecided between the two candidates at this point, while 6% still haven’t decided whether they’ll vote for DeSantis, Crist or a third-party challenger.

DeSantis is entering the homestretch of the 2022 election cycle with 55% job approval — his highest mark since March 2019. But where just 24% of voters disapproved and 14% weren’t sure about the job he was doing back then, 42% today are displeased with his performance.

Still, it’s a slight improvement over the Governor’s 53% approval this past February.

Mason-Dixon staff noted that much of the goodwill DeSantis now enjoys is likely to hinge on how he handles recovery after Ian. The storm slammed into Florida Sept. 28 at near-Category 5 strength, bringing torrential rain, tornadoes and massive storm surges that flooded a large swath of the Gulf Shore.

As of Tuesday, more than 100 people in the state were confirmed dead due to the storm, the damage from which is estimated to be upwards of $75 billion.

“It will be important to see if (DeSantis) can maintain or improve (his approval rating) in the coming weeks, as his leadership will be tested by state attempts to repair and recover from the damage inflicted by Hurricane Ian,” Mason-Dixon staff said.

DeSantis leads Crist in terms of general favorability as well. Half of those polled said they recognize him favorably, compared to 39% unfavorably and 11% who held a neutral opinion of him.

Just 33% of respondents said they recognize Crist favorably, while 39% said they recognized him unfavorably and 22% had neither a positive nor negative opinion. Of note, 6% said they did not know of Crist, a former Congressman, Governor, Attorney General, Education Commissioner and state lawmaker.

Crist’s strongest base of support is in Southeast Florida, a largely Democratic-leaning area that includes Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Martin, Collier and Monroe counties. Fifty-three percent of voters there prefer him over DeSantis, Libertarian Hector Roos and no-party candidate Carmen Jackie Gimenez.

Everywhere else in the state is, for the most part, “DeSantis country.” More than 55% of voters in the Tampa Bay area and Northeast, Central and Southwest Florida prefer him.

Demographically, DeSantis enjoys support from 60% of men, 56% of voters 50 and older, and 62% of White voters. Crist, meanwhile, has the backing of 87% of Black voters and 50% of Hispanic voters.

Neither has majority support from women, 6% of whom said they haven’t yet picked between the two men. The same goes for voters under the age of 50, whose 9% undecided rate is the highest among all groups.

Along party lines, DeSantis has 92% support from Republicans and 52% of unaffiliated voters. Seven percent of Democrats also said they like him better.

Crist has 84% of Democratic voters behind him and 39% support from unaffiliated voters. Three percent of Republican voters also said they’ll mark the circle next to his name.

Early voting for the Nov. 8 election is set to begin at least 10 days prior to Election Day.