Poll: GOP incumbents enjoy dominant leads in Florida Cabinet races
TALLAHASSEE, FLA. 9/21/21-Attorney General Ashley Moody, left, speaks during ringing of the bell ceremony to honor 18 fallen firefighters whose names were added to the Florida Fallen Firefighter Memorial with Chief Financial Officer and State Fire Marshal Jimmy Patronis, Tuesday at the Capitol in Tallahassee. COLIN HACKLEY PHOTO

The smart money is on the Florida Cabinet getting redder.

All three Republican candidates for statewide Florida Cabinet offices have significantly more support among the state’s active electorate than their Democratic counterparts, according to new polling data released Wednesday.

Jacksonville-based firm Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy surveyed 800 registered and likely voters across the Sunshine State Sept. 26-28. The poll had a 3.5-percentage-point margin of error.

Of those polled, 50% said they support incumbent Attorney General Ashley Moody’s re-election bid and 47% said they are voting to keep incumbent Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis in office.

Another 47% said they’ll cast ballots for Republican Senate President Wilton Simpson, who is running to succeed Nikki Fried as Agriculture Commissioner. Fried, the only statewide elected Democrat, opted to forgo seeking another term in favor of an unsuccessful run for Governor.

Moody faces former State Attorney Aramis Ayala, while Patronis is taking on a challenge from former state Rep. Adam Hattersley. Both Democratic candidates have the backing of 37% of voters, pollsters found. That leaves Ayala 13 points back and Hattersley 10 points behind.

Simpson, meanwhile, is set to face Democrat Naomi Esther Blemur. On Tuesday, Blemur announced that she was postponing her campaign to focus on Hurricane Ian recovery efforts, but later clarified that she would eventually return to campaign.

Blemur had 34% voter support — 13 percentage points fewer than Simpson — and less than $1,000 left to spend on her campaign.

Image via Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy.

Asked if the election were held today, 86% of Republicans, 55% of men and 47% of unaffiliated voters said they would choose Moody to continue serving as Attorney General. Ayala received support from 79% of Democrats surveyed and 29% of independents.

Neither candidate received majority nods from women, 46% of whom said they prefer Moody compared to 41% for Ayala.

Asked the same question about the Chief Financial Officer race, 82% of Republicans, 54% of men and 43% of unaffiliated voters picked Patronis, a former state Representative who also serves as State Fire Marshal.

Partisan support for Hattersley proved more tepid, with 79% of Democrats saying they’d vote for him. He also received considerably weaker independent backing. Of the 57% unaffiliated voters not yet aligned with Patronis, fewer said they would vote for Hattersley than said they were still undecided.

The outlook was similar in the race for Agriculture Commissioner, though slightly worse for Blemur, for whom just 71% of Democrats were sure they’d vote for her.

Conversely, a full 10% of Democrats said they prefer Simpson along with 81% of Republicans.

Early voting for the Nov. 8 election is set to begin at least 10 days prior to Election Day.

Jesse Scheckner

Jesse Scheckner has covered South Florida with a focus on Miami-Dade County since 2012. His work has been recognized by the Hearst Foundation, Society of Professional Journalists, Florida Society of News Editors, Florida MMA Awards and Miami New Times. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @JesseScheckner.


  • Tom

    October 5, 2022 at 6:48 am

    Trifecta, huge leads and wins upcoming down ballot. Dem, dum party has no real chance.
    Peeps don’t even know the Dems exist.

    • The Real Tom

      October 5, 2022 at 7:33 am

      “Dum” not “dumb” – Tom Dumbass 😆

      • Tom

        October 5, 2022 at 7:47 am

        You pathetic moron, I own you.
        I write it that way on purpose!
        How stupid are you.
        I have totally manipulated you.
        So ignorant Joey Soros Corsin.
        Worry bout your pathetic self one.

        • The Real Tom

          October 5, 2022 at 7:52 am

          “I write things incorrectly on purpose to display my own stupidity.” – Tom DeDumbass

          • Tom

            October 5, 2022 at 8:42 am

            As I stated, I own you, you pussy!
            As I have dominated FP for 3 years.
            I whiz upon you daily. You prove it with each reply, your inability to address topics and highlight me
            (thank you) is the epitome of your stupidity. I’ve destroyed your psyche.

            Florida GOP in position to wipe floor with pathetic Soros Manchurians, China bots such as yourself. You have been exposed.

            Thank you, Thank you very much you degenerate.

    • Mr. Haney

      October 5, 2022 at 3:28 pm

      And Republicans will continue to destroy what left of Florida.

  • Elliott Offen

    October 5, 2022 at 8:39 am

    @Tom: What is all this about you own people and totally manipulate people? You don’t look to be doing anything of the sort. It looks to me like you’re pulling nonsense out of your asshole and surely you would get your block knocked off if you said those stupid things to people in public.

    • Tom

      October 5, 2022 at 8:49 am

      Bring it on you Pussy, idiot Elliot.
      You are a piece of manure, Joey Soros corsins degenerate partner.

      Have you and your degenerate half show up! LMAO, you two have been exposed as soros china Manchurians.

      You both purposefully attempt to distract from substantive topics. It fails with me. Go back to China you degenerates.

      • Elliott Offen

        October 5, 2022 at 11:24 am

        Can anyone translate this guy’s gibberish? Sounds like some crap that a 7 year old would come up with.

      • Mr. Haney

        October 5, 2022 at 3:29 pm

        Keep trying comrade Tom. Why aren’t you in Ukraine? Did you flee?

  • Tom

    October 5, 2022 at 8:54 am

    Welcome incompetent POTUS Biden to Florida.
    With your 39% state approval in Florida!
    The 100 pd. Weight!

  • Hope

    October 5, 2022 at 9:27 am

    Best Cabinet in America! A 100% sweep! 🇺🇲

    • Charlie Crist

      October 5, 2022 at 11:26 am

      👆100% neo nazi sycophant.. Russian troll.🇷🇺

  • Phil Morton

    October 6, 2022 at 12:56 am

    Is the poll for real? Who the hell is Holloway? The only Holloway I know is running for Congress not CFO.

Comments are closed.


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