Two outsized characters, two legal battles in Matt Gaetz, Rebekah Jones CD 1 race

To the surprise of no one, Matt Gaetz takes CD 1.

No matter who wins the highly anticipated race for Florida’s 1st Congressional District, the Northwest Florida seat will be represented by a lawmaker dogged by legal challenges.

Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz is eyeing a fourth term in Congress and hopes to move past an ongoing criminal investigation into sex trafficking allegations. Meanwhile, Democratic challenger Rebekah Jones faces an uphill battle to unseat him in the heavily Republican seat while preparing for a trial about whether she hacked a Florida Department of State messaging system.

Gaetz, already a conservative star for his vocal support of former President Donald Trump, has dug his heels further into the fringes of his party since he was accused of violating sex trafficking laws by paying for a sexual relationship with a 17-year-old girl. He denies the allegations — and reports suggest prosecutors won’t charge him — but he has fallen out of favor with the Republican establishment, providing Democrats a possible window to unseat him.

Gaetz has aligned himself with figures like Georgia U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has promoted conspiracies and who falsely claims Trump won the 2020 election.

But Jones, who already had to fight in court to appear on the Democratic Primary ballot after briefly living in Maryland and registering as an independent, is in more immediate legal peril than Gaetz.

Jones rose to prominence when she was fired from DOH for insubordination, which she claims was over a refusal to manipulate COVID-19 data. Since then, prosecutors have accused Jones of hacking into an emergency messaging system, and law enforcement carried out a highly publicized raid on her home. Jones rejected a plea deal earlier this year, putting her on the path to a Jan. 23 trial date.

Last month, the pair sat down for a locally televised 30-minute debate, which highlighted their differences on abortion and veteran health care.

Jones promises to secure funding for a new Veterans Affairs hospital in Northwest Florida. Meanwhile, Gaetz has advocated for abolishing the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs after years of controversy at the agency. His plan would provide veterans with government-funded health care through private doctors.

Political observers are watching the CD 1 race more for the characters and intrigue than the race’s competitive nature — or lack thereof. The only public polling in the race has shown either Jones leading by 6 percentage points or Gaetz leading by 2 points. But the pair of surveys come from The Political Matrix/The Listener Group, which touts its use of “real data” but frequently produces outlying polls that favor Democrats.

FiveThirtyEight gives Gaetz a more than 99% chance of winning the race and predicts a final margin of 65%-35%.

CD 1 is Florida’s westernmost congressional district, covering Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties and the western half of Walton County.