Here’s Brunch, a pop-up, weekend email during the 2022 General Election — 11.6.22

Top view background of beautiful Christmas table with delicious homemade food decorated with fir branches, copy space

Good Sunday morning and welcome back to “Brunch,” a pop-up newsletter about the 2022 campaign cycle in Florida, as well as other essential information about Florida politics. This is our last serving of “Brunch” for this year, so we hope you have enjoyed our offerings.

How about them Noles?! How about them Knights?

As always, we cannot thank Jeff Johnston and Amanda Stewart of Johnston & Stewart enough for sponsoring this newsletter. It’s support like theirs which helps pay for the journalism created by more than 20 staffers at FloridaPolitics.com. We are incredibly grateful for Jeff, Amanda, and all our other patrons.

Happy birthday to our friends, Seminole County Commissioner Lee Constantine and Pinellas County Commissioner Janet Long, as well as Amanda Bowen, the brilliant Eric Deggans, our former colleague Danny McAuliffe and ace fundraiser Jon Stewart.

Do you need another reminder that it’s “fall back” day? Your smartphone handled the daylight saving time switch while you were sleeping. But for the few email-reading Luddites out there, this is why the send time on Brunch does not match your oven clock.

If you want to stay dry, either get to the polls now, or bring an umbrella and poncho with you Tuesday. The latest weather reports show a pair of systems merging in the Atlantic this weekend and they could bring buckets of rain to Florida’s east coast. Florida’s Gulf Coast isn’t out of the woods — there’s still a 30%-50% chance of rain in Tampa Bay on Election Day.

Be sure to check out this week’s edition of the Winners and Losers of the Week in Florida politics. Of note, this is the last edition Joe Henderson will be writing for Florida Politics as he is retiring after the elections.

Now, here’s Brunch.

— Voters are voting —

Early votes and mail ballots keep pouring in. Here is a rundown of ballot returns as of 6 p.m. Saturday.

— Vote-by-mail: Just over 2.4 million mail ballots have completed the round trip. Democrats are leading in mail ballots with 1.03 million returns to the GOP’s 888,328. Third- and no-party voters account for another 488,444 votes.

— Early voting: Republicans keep growing their lead in early in-person voting, with 972,396 votes logged compared to 522,150 for Democrats. An added 338,496 third- and no-party voters cast a ballot during early voting.

— Totals: Republicans took the lead in overall votes more than a week ago, and they haven’t let up. Heading into Sunday, 1,860,724 registered Republicans had turned out compared to 1,554,429 Democrats — a gap of 306,295 votes.

— Trump takes to South Florida —

Former President Donald Trump is taking his talents to Miami-Dade County, appearing with a large swath of Florida’s Republican congressional delegation, along with state and local candidates ahead of Election Day:

— Rally for Rubio: The main driver of the rally is Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, who is facing a re-election challenge from Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings. But Rubio won’t be the only big-name rubbing shoulders with the former President Sunday.

— Also on hand: Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott is also listed as a featured speaker, along with Republican U.S. Reps. Vern Buchanan, Kat Cammack, Mario Díaz-Balart, Byron Donalds, Matt Gaetz, Carlos Giménez and Michael Waltz. Wilton Simpson, the outgoing Senate President and current Republican nominee for Agriculture Commissioner, is also on the list, as are Republican congressional candidates Cory Mills and Anna Pauling Luna, Hialeah Mayor Esteban Bovo and state Sen. Joe Gruters, the Republican Party of Florida Chair.

— Show up early: The Miami-Dade County Fair and Exposition, located at 10901 Coral Way, will host the event. The parking lot and registration opens at 8 a.m. Doors for the event will open at noon. Speeches will begin at 2 p.m., with Trump scheduled to take the stage around 5 p.m.

Trump’s event is seen by some as a shot across the bow at potential 2024 Republican Primary opponent Ron DeSantis, who has his own busy Sunday schedule.

— Don’t Tread on Florida —

Gov. DeSantis is spending Sunday on his “Don’t Tread on Florida Tour,” but the Governor won’t come near the Trump rally.

— Sun City Center: DeSantis will hit the trail at 3 p.m. for a pit stop at Sun City Center Community Hall. This event made news as it was booked the same day as Trump’s rally for Rubio in Miami.

— Sarasota: At the exact same time as Trump’s rally, there will be two events in Southwest Florida taking place as part of the DeSantis tour. The Governor is expected to speak in Sarasota at Universal Flight Training at 5 p.m.

— Fort Myers: Around the same time, doors will open in Fort Myers for a later stop at the Alico Arena, where country music star Parker McCollum will share the stage with the Governor. That event is expected to start at 6:30 p.m.

The tour launched Friday and will also feature a Monday stop by the Governor at 2:30 p.m. at the Everglades Equipment Group in Boynton Beach.

— Casey cameos —

First Lady Casey DeSantis will also hit the trail Sunday, assisting with the Governor’s “Don’t Tread on Florida Tour” in the final days of his re-election campaign.

— Ocala: The First Lady will appear at the Hilton Garden Inn Downtown Ocala at 12:30 p.m. for her first Sunday stop. Attorney General Ashley Moody and U.S. Rep. Cammack — each mounting their own respective re-election bids — will also be on hand at that appearance.

— The Villages: At 3:30 p.m., First Lady DeSantis will host an event at The Brownwood Hotel & Spa at the Villages. Moody will also appear, as will state Rep. Blaise Ingoglia, who is favored to secure a Senate seat Tuesday.

— More on Monday: As of now, DeSantis’ final event will be held at 3 p.m. Monday, when she’ll arrive at Founders Square in Naples.

— Crist’s last-ditch pitch —

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist is hoping a Souls to the Polls push today can rally the support needed to overcome the odds and top Gov. DeSantis.

— Miami march: Crist will gather in Miami this afternoon alongside elected officials and local community leaders for a Souls to the Polls event aimed at generating turnout. Polls have shown Crist trailing DeSantis, and some even show Miami-Dade County being in play for the Republican incumbent.

— The details: Crist and others will march from the African Heritage Cultural Arts Center at 6161 NW 22 Ave. starting at 1 p.m. They will then vote and rally at the Joseph Caleb Center at 5400 NW 22 Ave.

— Also on hand: Joining Crist are Sen. Shevrin Jones, Rep.-elect Ashley Gantt, Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, Miami-Dade Commissioner Keon Hardemon, and several faith and union leaders.

— The tradition continues: “This event is more important than ever, amid the deliberate tactics in Florida to make it difficult for many Floridians to vote, including the purging of voter rolls in communities of color, stricter voter ID rules and restrictions at polling sites,” said Valda McKinney, president of the Miami-Dade Chapter of the A. Philip Randolph Institute.

— Crist shoots, will he score? — 

This Sunday, Charlie Crist will make one of his final shots at the Governor’s seat, joining professional basketball player Ray Allen to mobilize voters two days before the Election.

— Feeling the heat? Allen, who played as shooting guard for the Miami Heat, will join Crist and his running mate, Karla Hernández, as part of the campaign’s Choose Freedom Tour. Allen played 18 seasons in the NBA, and was inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame in September 2018.

— The team: The trio will also be joined by faith leaders, grassroots activists and residents to encourage voters ahead of the November 8 elections. 

— Details: The group will participate in a Souls to the Polls rally in Liberty City, near Miami, at 12:30 p.m. 

— What’s next? That evening, Hernandez will join community leaders and supporters for a Salsa to the Polls event in Miami. 

— Crist and Demings team up —

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Val Demings will then join Crist Monday evening for a final rally in Broward County.

— When and where: The two will appear at Hollywood Arts Park, with the rally slated to start at 6:30 p.m. The get-out-the-vote rally comes as Demings also trails in the polls against Rubio, though Demings has a smaller gap to overcome than Crist to pull off an upset.

— The goal: Broward is a deep blue county, and Democrats are hoping to drive up turnout in the region to counter Republicans’ support elsewhere.

— Last best hope: At the outset of the cycle, Democrats had hoped a strong top of the ticket could help them overcome what historically is a down year for the party holding the White House. Democrats saw a glimmer of hope over the summer in polling, but it appears that light is dimming as Election Day nears. Crist and Demings are hoping one last show of support together can change the tide heading into Tuesday.

— Demings’ final message —

Demings will make her own closing pitch Sunday, running an ad titled “Little Marco” Sunday on Fox News during their Trump-Rubio rally.

— Trump’s own words: The ad uses Trump’s own derogatory nickname lobbed at Rubio during their 2016 Republican Primary contest. Trump’s penchant for getting in the gutter saw him jab at Rubio regarding his height, though the two have apparently mended fences since then.

— Absentee: “He never votes, he never shows up to vote,” Trump said during the 2016 race. “He has conned the people of Florida.” That message comports with messaging from the Demings camp this cycle going after Rubio’s record of missing votes.

— Getting personal: “He’s a meltdown guy. I mean, I’m looking at him; he’s pouring sweat,” Trump also said. “The problem with Marco is he’s a choke artist; he chokes.” Those remarks were also included in the Demings ad as she looks to spotlight the previous tension between Trump and Rubio while they appear together in Miami-Dade.

The decision to run the ad on Fox Sunday is a shrewd one, as it will weave in between any live coverage the network takes of the Republicans’ rally.

To watch the ad, please click on the image below:

— Grassroots power

It’s all about the knocks. AFP-FL’s “grassroots army” has been knocking on doors across the state, drumming up support for candidates such as DeSantis, Cammack in CD 3, U.S. Rep. Maria Salazar in CD 27, and former Secretary of State Laurel Lee in CD 15. To date, AFP-FL volunteers have made more than 600,000 voter contacts this cycle.

— The motivators. The economy is the obvious one, but it’s not the only one. One of the top concerns among AFP-FL volunteers is education, and it’s an especially big motivator for women volunteers. “The polling that you’re seeing out there is that White suburban women are now shifting their vote back to the center-right. That’s what we’re hearing on the ground as well — that’s not just what polls are showing, that’s what real Floridians are telling us,” AFP-FL state director Skylar Zander said.

— Come young, come old. AFP-FL’s volunteer corps is quite diverse, but retirees and college students are the pillars. Each brings something different to the mix. Seniors tend to be the most fired up, but the college crowd brings the energy — they’re “hungry, want change, and also want to be involved in politics long term.”

— There’s an “energy” in Miami: Lots of volunteers are showing up in the Orlando area, but Miami is red-hot this cycle. “What’s happening is remarkable if you’re on the center-right. If you’re on the center-left, you’re scared to death and you’re scratching your head, asking yourself what’s going on,” Zander said. Over the past month, he added, AFP-FL volunteers have seen a massive momentum shift back to Salazar in the CD 27 contest.

— Down to the wire: A lot of AFP-FL’s 2022 picks are locks, but every knock counts in the battleground state Senate races. In SD 14, Sen. Janet Cruz has funding, infrastructure and family history on her side, but Republican Jay Collins still has a good shot. In SD 3, however, the feeling on the ground is Corey Simon is going to pull off the upset and defeat Sen. Loranne Ausley.

— Victory lap. AFP-FL volunteers will keep pounding the pavement through Election Day, but once the polls close they’ll be watching the results pour in like the rest us. Several chapters will be holding watch parties, including The Libre Initiative — AFP-FL’s Hispanic arm — which will be set up at the Belarosa Banquet Hall in Orlando. Chances are, it will turn into a victory party fairly early.

— Get used to it —

In a $65,000 round of new TV ads, Equality Florida bashes back at anti-LGBTQ messaging on the rise in Florida.

— “Obey”: An “Obey” ad pushes back on DeSantis’ “Free State of Florida” shtick. It shows red-tied Secret Service-esque figures tearing up rainbow flags in classrooms, saying teachers can now be sued for flying the banners.

— Pushing back: There’s also a response ad to attacks on Democratic Sen. Loranne Ausley, who Republican ads showed chanting “gay” at a Capitol demonstration against a measure critics have labeled the “Don’t Say Gay” law. It compared smears on Democrats to anti-gay rhetoric from Anita Bryant in the 1970s, and quotes Sen. Ileana Garcia saying gay is “not a permanent thing.”

— Bully pulpit? Another spot goes after DeSantis as “Florida’s biggest bully,” with a video of him chewing out children in masks. It slams the Governor for bullying the LGBTQ community and those seeking abortions. “We’re not afraid and we’re fighting back.”

The ads promise to stand with Crist and openly gay lawmakers Carlos Guillermo Smith, Michele Rayner-Goolsby and Shevrin Jones.

To watch the ad, please click on the image below:

— Ad spends —

It’s last call for ads. Campaigns are digging into the couch cushions to keep their faces on the airwaves for the next two days. Here’s a rundown of the ads that will show up on TV this week.

— U.S. Senate: Demings’ campaign spent another $19K on broadcast ads running through Election Day in the Tampa and West Palm Beach media markets. Her campaign has now topped $32M in ad spending while Rubio and committees backing him have spent just over $25M.

— Governor: Crist’s campaign put $30K into broadcast ads that will run through Election Day in the Miami media market. Campaigns and committees backing the Democrat have now spent about $18M on TV ads compared to $58M in total TV spending for DeSantis.

— CD 13: Democrat Eric Lynn’s campaign spent another $20K on cable ads airing in the Tampa media market. Networks in the buy include CNN, ESPN, Food Network, Hallmark, HGTV, History, MSNBC, Oxygen, Syfy, TBS, TNT and USA. A total of $8.4M has been spent on Lynn ads this cycle, compared to $5.2M spent on ads backing Republican Anna Paulina Luna.

— Spectrum spotlights election coverage —

Those looking for TV coverage of Tuesday night’s election results can tune into Spectrum Bay News 9 and Spectrum News 13 for special coverage surrounding the state’s big contests.

— Election Night kickoff: Live coverage will begin as soon as polls close at 7 p.m. The teams will give viewers results of all federal, state and local races, as well as live concession and acceptance speeches in major contests.

— The lineup: Holly Gregory will host Spectrum Bay News 9 coverage, with help from anchors Rick Elmhorst and Roy de Jesus. On Spectrum News 13, Ybeth Bruzual will oversee hosting duties, alongside anchors Tammie Fields and Greg Angel.

— Election Night preview: The networks will also air an hourlong special Monday night at 7 p.m. called “Decision 2022: Election Preview.” That broadcast will be full of information helpful to voters headed to the polls Tuesday. It follows several 30-minute specials the networks aired through this past Friday previewing key races.

— Moo-ve slow for sea cows —

November is Manatee Awareness Month, though it’s been hard to ignore the ongoing unusual mortality event (UME) with the marine mammals the past couple of years, and decades of work conducted trying to save the species. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) is reminding boaters to keep a lookout for manatees as they try to keep warm.

— It’s cold, for Florida: The water’s chillier this time of year, and manatees like to congregate where temperatures are a little more comfortable, preferably north of 68 degrees Fahrenheit. Though in fewer numbers than in past years before the UME, manatees can be expected in springs and near power plants, along with other places where the water is warmer.

— “A major threat”: FWC experts say boat strikes continue to be a major threat to manatees in the state, and boaters should be aware of seasonal manatee protection zones. The animals are big and slow and stay near the surface, making them sometimes hard to spot. Wearing polarized glasses while on the water can help.

— Let wildlife be wild: It’s also a good time to remind people that a good rule of thumb is to let wildlife be wild and not interact with those creatures, out of respect for the safety of yourself and the animal. If the matter of manatees, feeding, harassing, disturbing or otherwise harming them is illegal and these matters are pursued by FWC and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

— Lend a hand: Should you find a manatee in distress, you’re advised to call FWC’s Wildlife Alert Hotline at 888-404-FWCC (3922), or by dialing #FWC or *FWC on your cellphone.

— A different story this time —

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and L.A. Rams staged an epic playoff game last January at Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium. The Bucs trailed by 24 points late in the third quarter, but quarterback Tom Brady led a furious rally that tied the game with 42 seconds left. But Tampa Bay’s defense inexplicably let Rams’ star receiver Cooper Kupp get open for a 42-yard gain, and former Buc Matt Gay kicked a 30-yard field for the 30-27 Rams win. The rematch is today in Tampa. This time, though, it’s a drama of a different kind.

— Hitting the skids: The Bucs, beset by injuries to their defense, have lost three straight and four of their last five and stand 3-5 for the season. It’s Brady’s first three-game losing streak in 20 years. He’s two games under .500 for the first time in his career. The defending Super Bowl champion Rams are 3-4 and have also been crushed by injuries. Four starters on their offensive line are out and their running game has greatly suffered.

— History could be made: The desperate situation for both teams is a big part of the appeal, but fans could also see milestone achievements. Brady needs just 164 passing yards to reach 100,000 for his career (including the postseason). And Kupp is only three catches away from 500 career receptions. He would be only the fifth Ram to reach that mark. While all that is nice, only one thing really matters for two teams that entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations. “It’s tough getting up here every week figuring out how to not be overly disappointed in what we’re doing,” Brady said. “But we’re fighting hard and we’re going to try to make it better.”

— Contender or pretender? —

Are the Dolphins Super Bowl contenders? Sure, why not? They were one of the NFL’s big winners at the trade deadline, adding a monster defensive piece in edge rusher Bradley Chubb from the Denver Broncos. The Dolphins promptly signed Chubb to a five-year, $110 million contract extension, with $63.2 million guaranteed.

— Other moves: Miami also traded for a potentially valuable piece of the offense, acquiring running back Jeff Wilson Jr. from San Francisco for a fifth-round pick. Wilson, who became expendable when the 49ers acquired Christian McCaffrey, figures to be a plug-and-play performer for the Dolphins. Miami Coach Mike McDaniel should know what he is getting with Wilson. McDaniel was the 49ers offensive coordinator last season.

— Art of the deal: So, how did the Dolphins pull this off? For that, go back to when they traded the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 draft to San Francisco and got three first-round picks in return. The Dolphins used that draft capital wisely. They took receiver Jaylen Waddle with the 2021 pick, and he is on his way to superstardom. The second No. 1 pick? They used that to acquire receiver Tyreek Hill in a blockbuster trade with Kansas City. And they used the last of their three No. 1 selections in the Chubb trade. Hill, Waddle, and Wilson give quarterback Tua Tagovailoa offensive weapons he desperately needed. And Chubb enhances the pass rush in a division that includes Buffalo’s Josh Allen.

— All smiles now: At the midpoint of the NFL season, it’s hard to remember that offseason turmoil that threatened to scuttle Miami’s season before it even started. The controversial firing of Coach Brian Flores after last season was just the start of Miami’s troubles. Flores claimed owner Stephen Ross offered him $100,000 for each he lost in 2019 because Miami wanted to take LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with the No. 1 overall pick. The Dolphins instead wound up with Tagovailoa, who came into this season with a mandate to get better or else. He has gotten better, and so have the Dolphins. They are definite playoff contenders and if they get there, who knows how far they could go?

— Brunching out —

Diners can find traditional Southern fare served from breakfast to dinner at the new JoEllen’s in Kleman Plaza.

— Backstory: When Teresa and Joe Nix opened their new restaurant, JoEllen’s, in Kleman Plaza in August, they intended to feature soul and comfort food as part of a broader menu for lunch and dinner. At the same time, they would continue running their popular breakfast and lunch spot, Catering with Care (or CWC Cafe) on South Monroe Street. But in the restaurant world, sometimes you just have to pivot. The couple found that due to staff shortages and a lease ending at Catering with Care, they couldn’t maintain both sites. They stopped operating at the Monroe Street cafe on Oct. 28 and shifted their breakfast service to JoEllen’s.

— The setting: JoEllen’s is sleek and contemporary, with large windows offering a view of the tree-shaded streetscape. This new Kleman setting is more upscale than the down-home CWC, but diners can find most of the same breakfast fare. The restaurant is named after Joe, the chef and co-owner, and his mother. It’s the only downtown, Black-owned restaurant currently operating. CWC Cafe will maintain its catering operation through March.

— Breakfast: It’s tough to decide. Catfish or fried pork chops? French toast or pancakes smothered in peach cobbler compote or salmon croquettes or a cheesy omelet? We wound up with two generous, flavorful fried pork chops topped with a sweet chili sauce, served with two eggs (your way) and grits (or home fries). We also ordered three salmon croquettes flanked by two eggs over medium, four pieces of raisin toast, and a mound of crunchy home fries. We will have to come back to try the other options, like chicken and waffles and those peach cobbler pancakes.

— Details: JoEllen’s, Kleman Plaza, 215 W. College Ave. #101; 850-999-1779. Open 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Tuesday to Thursday, 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. Friday, 10 a.m. to 10 p.m. Saturday and 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. Sunday. Closed Monday.