Voter turnout so far paints a damning picture for Florida Democrats
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I voted
Republicans bested Democrats in early voting in key counties, and are out-performing them on Election Day, too.

If voter turnout so far in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties are any indication, which they may well be, Democrats are in for a drubbing after polls close and ballots are tallied. 

GOP voters in both counties are turning out more than Democrats, as of the most recent turnout data on the counties’ respective Supervisor of Elections websites.

In Pinellas, as of 10:40 a.m., about 11,000 more GOP voters had cast ballots than Democrats. Democrats led by about 11,000 ballots cast by mail, but trailed in early voting turnout by about 8,000 voters and are more than 14,000 ballots behind GOP voters in Election Day turnout. Given that early voting has obviously closed and most mail ballots have already been received, the 11,000 voter gap is likely only to grow. 

While that may not be entirely unexpected in Pinellas — Republicans have a slight edge in voter registration and the county has been trending red in recent years — things look even worse in Hillsborough County. There, Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 7 percentage points, according to the most recent L2 voter data.

Yet as of 10:50 a.m. more than 8,000 more Republicans had cast a ballot in this year’s General Election than Democrats. Like Pinellas, Democrats over-performed Republicans in vote-by-mail, with 84,454 ballots cast compared to 63,296 from Republicans. And also like Pinellas, the GOP answered with stronger early voting turnout, with 59,830 ballots cast compared to 45,082 from Democrats. 

Election Day turnout looks even worse for Democrats, with Republicans nearly doubling their turnout — nearly 26,000 Republicans had cast a ballot on Election Day before the lunch rush, while just over 13,000 Democrats had voted. Again, that disparity will likely only grow throughout the day and, even if it doesn’t, the gap likely won’t be fully bridged.

Voter turnout, of course, does not consider voters who cross party lines. It also is ignorant of how un-affiliated voters will affect outcomes. In Pinellas, for example, moderate Democratic candidate for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, Eric Lynn, is expected to draw some Republican support from moderate conservatives disenchanted with the Donald Trump-backed Republican, Anna Paulina Luna, who his campaign has targeted as an extremist out-of-touch with everyday Floridians. Likewise, he’s expected to capture a not insignificant portion of unaffiliated voters. But with vote tallies already showing a strong turnout from GOP voters, those trends may not be enough to keep CD 13, previously held by gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist, blue. Worth noting: CD 13’s voter registration more heavily favors the GOP than the county as a whole.

But the trends are more indicative to potential outcomes statewide. If Republicans are turning out in greater numbers than Democrats in Pinellas County, one of the state’s swingiest district, it could indicate a stronger showing for GOP candidates from the panhandle to South Florida. 

Indeed, GOP turnout in Miami-Dade County is already about 9,000 ballots ahead of Democratic turnout, with similar trends as it relates to Democrats out-performing Republicans in vote-by-mail but trailing in early vote and Election Day turnout. 

Even in deep blue Leon County, home to Tallahassee, Republicans only trail Democrats in turnout so far by about 17,000 votes. To put that into perspective, Democrats have cast about 54% of ballots so far, while Republicans have cast about 33%. Voter registration favors Democrats 52% to 26%, meaning the GOP is over-performing their total registration by about 4 percentage points. And the GOP appears to be making more progress on Election Day, where they hold a razor thin advantage on turnout so far. 

The aggregate of all of this early turnout data may not foretell exact outcomes, but it is certainly not good news for Democrats, especially Crist, who like Democratic candidates for Governor before him, have relied on counties like Hillsborough and Miami-Dade for a big push.

Peter Schorsch

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises Media and is the publisher of FloridaPolitics.com, INFLUENCE Magazine, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. Previous to his publishing efforts, Peter was a political consultant to dozens of congressional and state campaigns, as well as several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella. Follow Peter on Twitter @PeterSchorschFL.


30 comments

  • Tom

    November 8, 2022 at 12:00 pm

    Throw Florida out of the USA. Leave the stupid people to the terrorists, grifters, and the Christian fascist police state.

    • Charlotte Greenbarg

      November 8, 2022 at 1:23 pm

      Love it when the far left mouth frothers panic. You are being REJECTED by sane citizens.

      • Lynn Hauk

        November 8, 2022 at 3:17 pm

        who calls someone they do not know a mouth frothier and then touts sanity?

    • Har Drainafallin'

      November 8, 2022 at 1:31 pm

      Democrats are staying home in droves. Nuthin’ to vote for. Judge could possibly defeat Castor. Tom, this is a democracy, and the people are speaking. Listen to them.

      • Tom

        November 8, 2022 at 2:37 pm

        Charlotte and Har, that’s a impostor, he’s Joey corsin. I am Tom the legend of FP.

        I respect Democracy and appreciate it. Corsin is a fraud against humanity.

    • Dee Myers

      November 8, 2022 at 2:06 pm

      Poor Tom,so filled with hate.We will pray for you tonight
      when the red wave crashes over you

      • Tom

        November 8, 2022 at 2:13 pm

        @Dee(znuts)Yeah you’ll all be killed by your own stupidity.
        @Charlotte: Sane my ass. Buncha religious idiots and shills for billionaires. Also terrorists. Ashli Babbitt and Q-Shaman were sane citizens 🤡

    • Tim stein

      November 8, 2022 at 4:34 pm

      Poor Poot you liberals . You should to Venezuela , China or North Korea

      • Tom

        November 8, 2022 at 6:44 pm

        See you dirt bags always point to countries that are worse than the USA and try to gloss over the fact that there are better countries to move to like Germany and Scandinavian countries. You people would be enslaved by far right billionaires if not for “the radical left.” Just keep that in mind that we even protect your poor culture by our very existence.

  • Tom

    November 8, 2022 at 1:16 pm

    Legend Tom here.
    Have you no class Joey, or dignity, ever?
    Peter S., the key question is will Gov top 60%?
    Bob Graham like. Will FP highlight Charlie’s previous defeats, to Marco and Scott. This perennial loser is appalling.

    When Gov says it’s time to retire this old donkey, it’s really true. He should never seek office again.

    • JD

      November 8, 2022 at 7:01 pm

      Germany keeps coming up for me.

      HUGE Economy. Diverse workforce.

      Universal healthcare and education.

      Social safety nets, and investments in sustainable infrastructure.

      All those gibs backed by conscription to military or civil service.

      Huge patriotism, without the authoritarianism.

      It’s the country to emulate.

      Now if you could combine it with Japan’s order and culture.

  • JD

    November 8, 2022 at 1:49 pm

    This election is being stolen! Voter Fraud by the GOP! WE DEMAND A RECOUNT!

    Suddenly that now sounds stupid? Give me a break…

    • Tom

      November 8, 2022 at 2:01 pm

      Come on JD, you gots to do better!
      Get ready for the political annihilation.
      Govs rocking in Tampa tonight, Marco in Hialeah. Repub. across the state.
      Rock the casbah!

      • Charlie Crist

        November 8, 2022 at 2:14 pm

        Whole bar looking for you…

    • Tom

      November 8, 2022 at 2:01 pm

      Come on JD, you gots to do better!
      Get ready for the political annihilation.
      Govs rocking in Tampa tonight, Marco in Hialeah. Repub. across the state.
      Rock the casbah!

  • JD

    November 8, 2022 at 2:08 pm

    My point being you don’t hear of the Democrats doing that, do you?

    No, only the whiny losers in 2020. They’ll take their lumps and regroup.How about if Gore kept it up? All those hanging chads!

    Don’t forget while I’ve sided more progressive and Anti-GOP of late because of their lack of common sense in some arenas, I’ve always been NPA.

    FL’s NPA’s are bigger than ever Tom. The gain to the GOP and loss on the Dems wasn’t near as great as the NPA increase. There’s something to be said for that potential. If the GOP keeps pushing it will bite them in the ass.

    Good victory … for now.

  • Boaz

    November 8, 2022 at 2:13 pm

    Tom, you claim to support democracy — which your authoritarian impulses indicate otherwise and that Republicans pose an existential threat to our Constitutional republic — which they do not. Now, in addition to advocating the use of governmental force to throw every American out of our country who may have a contrarian opinion to yours, you’re also advocating succession. Yikes! The likes of you, both on the extreme left and the extreme right, pose a real existential threat to our Republic, not some contrived one simply designed to animate the political left. As a line from one of my favorite movies applies, “If you’re looking for the guilty, you need only to look into a mirror.”

    • Tom

      November 8, 2022 at 2:27 pm

      Republicans are shills for the super rich and money doesn’t trickle down. Your grandchildren will be cleaning toilets for people like Trump for bread only. They hoard money and pay politicans to pump out right wing propaganda so people are blinded or even satisfied with growing wealth and income inequality. You see red states like Mississippi deprived of civilization because of GOP grifters and non governance. Florida survives off outside money and tourism etc. Conservatives are to blame for all non-advancement everywhere. No business in national government. They only obstruct and sabotage government.

    • Tom

      November 8, 2022 at 3:42 pm

      Boaz, Charlotte, Dee, others.
      The above Tom attacking democracy is a fraud. He is corrupt.
      He uses my name, as a fraud fake alias. His name is Joe Corsin, he uses other fake monikers like Charlie Crisp but purposefully uses my name as a fraud. He’s very jealous.

      I am Tom the FP legend. I support democracy. Joe Corsin is a fraud, totally classless.

      • The Real Tom

        November 8, 2022 at 4:06 pm

        By God who is this FAKE TOM!!! RAMBLING GIBBERISH FAKE TOM!!! INTELLECTUAL DISABILITY FAKE TOM!!!!

    • Tom

      November 8, 2022 at 3:42 pm

      Boaz, Charlotte, Dee, others.
      The above Tom attacking democracy is a fraud. He is corrupt.
      He uses my name, as a fraud fake alias. His name is Joe Corsin, he uses other fake monikers like Charlie Crisp but purposefully uses my name as a fraud. He’s very jealous.

      I am Tom the FP legend. I support democracy. Joe Corsin is a fraud, totally classless.

      • The Real Tom

        November 8, 2022 at 4:08 pm

        👆 LYING FAKE TOM!!! BELLIGERENT DRUNK FAKE TOM!!!! INCOHERENT AND INCOMPETENT FAKE TOM!!!!

  • tom palmer

    November 8, 2022 at 2:18 pm

    Will Rogers was right.

  • Based Desantis Supporter

    November 8, 2022 at 2:45 pm

    Lmao I’ve been telling y’all. 7-10% point win for desantis. That’s an absolute drubbing even as the state shifts rightward. It’s gonna be a long long night for Florida dems. This IS our state, you whiny little redditor soi cucks. And don’t you ever forget it

    • Joe Corsin

      November 8, 2022 at 4:14 pm

      👆 They call this guy deplorable clown car. This why some people avoid Florida. All accept New York carpet baggers who come here to drive up real estate prices and wipe their azz with the locals. Good job buddy. What do the far hogs pay you to make them rich? Peanuts?

      • Based Desantis Supporter

        November 9, 2022 at 9:24 am

        Nobody except the most cringe inducing terminally online leftists call him that. What a lame ass attempt at an insult 😂. As far as people coming here, we lead the nation in international tourists, and people are coming from all over the country to live here. While they leave sh*those dem states. We run this shit. You all are irrelevant now.

    • Based Desantis Supporter is a P*SSY

      November 9, 2022 at 1:30 am

      You little p*ssy. Stay online and run your mouth you f*cking coward. This state is gerrymandered and filled with stupid f*cking jackoffs. Real great thing to be proud of. This state is the laughing stock of the US and the world because of GARBAGE LIKE YOU. You’re too f*cking stupid to see why thats bad and will roll around in your own pigshit with glee. Idiot.

      • Based Desantis Supporter

        November 9, 2022 at 5:57 am

        20 point win b*tch. Eat it and enjoy it. We stomped you Reddit cucks in historic fashion. A 20% win in the governors race has nothing to do with gerrymandering. You are heavily outnumbered. The democrat party and it’s followers are done in Florida. You losers are less than irrelevant. We run this shit now. Bow down b*tch

  • Diana

    November 8, 2022 at 3:43 pm

    So i would like to know how they know this? I voted early.. no one asked me how i voted..i wouldn’t tell them anyway.. and they are not allowed to start tallying the votes until election day.. so unless someone cheated.. which i hope is so not the case, this sounds like someone pulling a false alarm bell to get Republicans out to vote?? Hmmmm Hopefully, by all this false hype, it will period even more democrats to vote…

    • Tierra

      November 8, 2022 at 6:43 pm

      Exactly! They’ve been lying and putting out false slanted polls all week!

Comments are closed.


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