Guest AuthorIn September predicting the outcome of a major election like the governor’s race in Florida is premature, to say the least. With the election more than six weeks away, there is still plenty of time for events, both planned and unplanned, to significantly affect the outcome.
Every campaign fears the dreaded October Surprise. Often it comes from the opposition. There are many examples of this late-campaign tactic. Some October Surprises have been more effective than others.
In the 1988 George Bush-Michael Dukakis race for president, Republicans hit Dukakis with the Willy Horton ad in October. Horton had been serving a life sentence for murder but was given a weekend furlough under a program approved by Dukakis when he was governor of Massachusetts. Horton didn’t return from the furlough and committed assault, armed robbery and rape. The ads hurt Dukakis.
Another October Surprise was the 2000 presidential election when attorney Thomas Connolly of Maine revealed that George W. Bush had been arrested for DUI in his state 14 years prior. And in 2004, the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth TV ads blasted John Kerry. Those close to Kerry say he still believes the Swift Boat ads cost him the race.
In Florida, the most potent “October Surprise” took place during the 1994 race for governor between Lawton Chiles and Jeb Bush. On Oct. 7 of that year, a Mason Dixon poll showed Bush leading 48 percent to 43 percent. Nine days later, a St. Petersburg Times poll showed Bush had increased his lead to 49 percent to 39 percent.
Fearing they were about to lose the race, the Chiles campaign authorized a blitz of “Mediscare” calls to 680,000 senior citizens during the last two weeks of October, according to The New York Times. Seniors were told that Bush cheated on his taxes and that his running mate, Tom Feeney, wanted to do away with Social Security and Medicare.
The Chiles October Surprise phone calls apparently worked. An AIF poll taken on Oct. 30 showed the race had become a dead heat, with both candidates at 45 percent. On Election Day, Chiles squeaked by Bush by a meager 65,000 votes.
It is true that the popularity of early voting may reduce the effect of an October Surprise these days. Even so, in a close race like the current gubernatorial race, a surprise at the end of the campaign could still alter the outcome. For that reason, the candidates for governor need to be on full alert from now until Election Day.
Jeff Kottkamp is president of Jeff Kottkamp, P.A. He served as Florida’s 17th lieutenant governor. Column courtesy of Context Florida.
