Peter SchorschWith five weeks left in Florida’s governor’s race, the contest is almost exactly where prognosticators expected it to be.
The most recent numbers from Survey USA (ranked by data guru Nate Silver as the most reliable pollsters operating this cycle in the state) peg the race at Rick Scott 43 percent, Charlie Crist 42 percent.
With at least $50 million spent by both candidates — most of it by Scott — the incumbent’s cash-on-hand advantage is less than $1 million.
In other words, after nearly a year of brutal, expensive campaigning, the two candidates are all squared with about the same amount of resources left at their disposal and only so much time and capacity to spend it.
With the issue still in doubt, the governor’s race reminds me of — wait for it — the opening scene of the classic Paul Newman film “The Hustler.”
Newman is small-time pool hustler “Fast Eddie,” who has traveled from California to Ames, Iowa to challenge legendary player “Minnesota Fats,” portrayed by sleek-as-a-lion Jackie Gleason.
Arriving at Fats’ home pool hall, Eddie declares he will win $10,000 that night. Fats arrives and he and Eddie agree to play for $200 a game.
After initially falling behind, Eddie surges back to being $1,000 ahead and suggests raising the bet to $1,000 a game; Fats agrees. Eddie gets ahead $11,000 and his manager, Charlie, tries to convince him to quit, but Eddie insists the game will end only when Fats says it is over. Fats agrees to continue.
Deep into this epic back-and-forth, there is a point where Fats takes a purposeful break. He cleans up in the washroom, fixes his tie, adjusts his lapel carnation, and has the attendant splash his hands with fresh talcum powder. He does this all very methodically and in full display of Eddie, who, at this point, is visibly, if not actually, beat.
Fats, who up to this point is down $18,000, looks over at his opponent and says, “Fast Eddie, let’s play some pool.”
Minnesota Fats then goes on to win back every dollar he had lost to Eddie, as well as the 10 grand Eddie walked into the pool hall with.
I’m not sure whether Crist or Scott is Fast Eddie or Minnesota Fats. Perhaps Crist is Fats, having taken Scott’s best game and remains standing. Or maybe Scott is Fats, with his stamina and composure. Again, I’m not sure.
What is clear is that the governor’s race is at that moment in the pool match where each candidate has given his rival his best game and yet there’s still a lot of game left to play.
Tens of millions of dollars spent with only more to come, thousands of volunteers organized and ready, debates — newspaper endorsements — rallies … and who knows what else.
The candidate who will win this race is the one who can, amidst all of this, fix his tie, find his second wind, and look his opponent in they eye and say, “Let’s play some pool.”
Material from Internet Movie Database was used in this post.
Peter Schorsch is a political consultant and new media publisher based in St. Petersburg. Column courtesy of Context Florida.
