Poll: Ron DeSantis fades into second place tie in Iowa, 27 points behind Donald Trump

Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition’s fall banquet. Photo via AP.

A new survey points to what the campaign of Donald Trump calls a “dominant lead” in Iowa, where Ron DeSantis is betting heavily on a strong performance in January.

Perhaps more problematic for the Florida Governor’s 2024 campaign for the Republican nomination, meanwhile, is Nikki Haley tying DeSantis for second place.

Both candidates are at 16%, 27 points behind former President Trump. However, Haley has gained 10 points since the poll was last in the field, while DeSantis has lost 3, another worrying sign of flagging momentum for the Florida Governor.

The Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll of 404 likely Hawkeye State caucus participants was in the field from Oct. 22 through Oct. 28.

It reflects the Governor’s response to the Hamas attacks in Israel since Oct. 7, and suggests that despite a seemingly coordinated campaign of state response and campaign messaging about “DeSantis Airways,” that Iowa voters are looking to book trips with the former President and the only woman in the GOP race instead.

Further back, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott is at 7%, Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy are at 4%, and Doug Burgum has 3% support.

DeSantis’ decline in polls is poorly timed, as Iowans begin to think more seriously about the race, and with him making it clear that his strategy includes a potential endorsement from Gov. Kim Reynolds. He told local media last week that he’d “love” to have that endorsement.

“Obviously, I would love to have her support, formal support. I think it would be very, very meaningful. I think what she’s been able to do in Iowa has really been a model for how people should govern,” DeSantis said, before offering familiar ruminations about how “happy” Iowans tell him they are with her approach to leading the state.

This is the second straight recent poll to show DeSantis below 20% among the state’s Republicans. An October Iowa State University/Civiqs poll shows DeSantis at 17% and Trump at 58%.

One positive note for the Governor: He’s tied with Trump when factoring in all voters who would consider a candidate. Trump has 12% of voters rating him as their second choice, with an additional 12% still considering him as the nominee. That means 67% of voters are open to voting for the former President.

A sizable 27% of voters rate DeSantis as their second choice, tops in the field. Another 25% say they’re considering DeSantis, which also means 67% of voters are weighing a vote for DeSantis. Haley is third in this metric, with 54% of voters open to her candidacy.

Iowa’s 40 delegates will be doled out on a proportional basis after the Jan. 15 caucus results are finalized.