A.G. Gancarski
With the Thanksgiving holiday weekend in its back stretch, there is little change in the dynamics of the 2024 presidential campaign according to those betting money on it.
Former President Donald Trump is still the seemingly prohibitive favorite. And as has been the case for weeks, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is still the investors’ favorite over Ron DeSantis.
The dynamic plays out in not just the Republican presidential primary market, but also the General Election landscape also, as documented by Election Betting Odds, which aggregates Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, and Polymarket platforms.
In the Primary market, Trump has an aggregated 78.4% chance of winning the nomination, with Haley in a distant second place at 11.5% and DeSantis farther back still, with a 5.7% chance according to investors.
The General Election market reflects a similar landscape.
Trump is the overall favorite there, with a 38.6% chance of winning it all, outpacing President Joe Biden’s 27.8% chance of winning.
From there, Democrat Gavin Newsom — who is not running for President — is in third place, with a 10.3% chance of winning next year’s General Election. He leads Haley by 2.9%.
Haley is ahead of independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. and former First Lady Michelle Obama, each of whom have a 3.7% chance of winning.
DeSantis, afforded a 2.4% chance of winning, is behind them, but leads Vice President Kamala Harris, who has a 1.6% chance of winning at this writing.
7 comments
Larry Gillis, Libertarian
November 25, 2023 at 3:10 pm
OK, but two weeks out in 2016, the NY Times gave Hilary an 80% probability of election. It ain’t over til the fat lady sings.
Sic transit gloria.
tom palmer
November 25, 2023 at 4:06 pm
we’ll see. Hard to know until the fat boy is convicted
Dont Say FLA
November 27, 2023 at 1:28 pm
Atlanta Fulton County jail is bringing in extra bed bugs for Trump.
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DEBRA
November 25, 2023 at 7:16 pm
It makes my heart sing.
Richard Russell
November 27, 2023 at 12:32 pm
Anyone who supports the amateur in the United Nations over President Trump in 2024 is brain dead.
Dont Say FLA
November 27, 2023 at 1:27 pm
Only one of Donald J Trump, Rhonda Dee Santis, and Nikki Haley knows how to govern. Hint, it’s Nikki Haley.
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