Poll: Donald Trump up 2% among likely voters as Joe Biden lags in supporter enthusiasm

Trump biden
Ten percent of 2020 Biden voters said they’re either switching to team Trump or voting for another candidate this year.

A new national poll suggests that Nov. 5 will be a dreary day for United States voters, most of whom dislike both Joe Biden and Donald Trump — but not enough to vote third-party.

For now, Trump holds a 2-percentage-point edge over the incumbent.

Researchers from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab (UNF PORL) spoke by phone with 745 likely voters chosen at random from a voter file April 8-20.

The survey was weighted by age, educational attainment, partisan registration, race and ethnicity, sex and geographic strata to match the population of the registered U.S. electorate.

It had a 4.2% margin of error.

Asked whom they would support at the ballot box, 47% of respondents said they would vote for Trump compared to 45% who said they backed Biden.

Four percent planned to vote for another candidate, while 3% said they were unsure or refused to answer and 2% said they didn’t plan to weigh in on the presidential race.

Among voters who cast ballots in 2020, a far larger share of Biden voters — 10% — said they were switching sides this year than Trump voters. Six percent of past Biden voters reported that they plan to instead vote for Trump this year. Another 4% said they would vote for another candidate.

Meanwhile, just 2% of Trump voters said they would instead vote for the incumbent President.

Trump’s ongoing legal issues should impact the election results as well. Asked whether a conviction of Trump in any of his pending criminal cases would sway how this year, 67% of respondents said no. Twenty-four percent said they’d be less inclined to vote for him, while 7% said a conviction would make them more likely to do so.

Michael Binder, Director of UNF PORL, said a factor that could “dramatically impact the election” is the 9% of Trump voters who said they’d be less likely to cast ballots for him if he’s convicted.
Both Biden and Trump remain underwater in approval. Just 39% of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of the President compared to 59% who said they viewed him unfavorably. Trump fared slightly better, with 43% favorable and 54% unfavorable ratings.

Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who received an average of 13% support across five national polls released in March and April, received a net neutral favorability in the UNF PORL poll with 35% favorable and 35% unfavorable.

But just six months before Election Day, 31% of respondents said they didn’t have a strong enough opinion of him either way or refused to answer the question.

Binder noted that while a substantial portion of respondents — 15% — dislike Biden and Trump, Kennedy shouldn’t count them as probable supporters.

“It’s worth noting that only 11% of these double-haters said they were voting for a third candidate, with 43% indicating they would vote for Biden, and 30% going to Trump,” he said.

Pollsters found that whatever edge Biden may have in hate-defying support may be nullified by an enthusiasm imbalance between his and Trump’s supporters. Among the 66% of respondents who said they were somewhat or very enthusiastic about the coming election, Trump’s voters were the most passionate.

“Enthusiasm is highest among 2024 Trump voters and, unsurprisingly, lowest among third-party and undecided voters,” Binder said. “A whopping 40% of self-reported Biden voters in 2024 are not at all enthusiastic about voting for him — which could lead to a turnout problem for Democrats in the Fall.”

Jesse Scheckner

Jesse Scheckner has covered South Florida with a focus on Miami-Dade County since 2012. His work has been recognized by the Hearst Foundation, Society of Professional Journalists, Florida Society of News Editors, Florida MMA Awards and Miami New Times. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @JesseScheckner.


  • Guam Might Tip

    April 25, 2024 at 6:05 am

    Sad that this is the best and the brightest that both parties bring to the table, and they are both old. Joe belongs in memory care. He simply is nothing but a mumbling, bumbling fool. He doesnt answer questions unless he has cheat sheets, hand picked journalists, or his teleprompter. No one fears or respects him. His back up is as incompetent as he is.

    • Hung Wiil

      April 25, 2024 at 8:30 pm

      Yes!! Hank Johnson 2024!!!
      Why would a UNF poll be a story? Lame. This is the organization that released a poll three days before the Democrat primary in 2022, showing Nikki Fried beating Charlie Crist by 4 points. She lost by 30 points. Losers.

      • Guam Might Tip

        April 26, 2024 at 8:47 am

        I enjoy your posts Hung Will, keep typing. My local newspaper has posted bogus polls over the years as the Uber left editorial board has tried to influence the elections here. Most of the polls have been wrong. I dumped that rag a couple of years ago and I got suckered back into a digital subscription. It is nothing but a Democrat propaganda rag. All of the news is slanted toward an anti-DeSantis, and anti-Republican narrative. Now wonder these rags are going out of business all around the country.


    April 25, 2024 at 6:53 am

    Good Morn ‘Ting Dook 4 Brains Leftys,
    Well there you have it America has made a groundswell shift and its not for your Dook 4 Brains Leftist side.
    No its for the “Good Guys Side, “The Truth Justice, and The American Way Side”!!!
    Well, Dooks, its pretty much over for your “Evil Demonic Side”.
    Dooks, Earl is not here to just rub dirt in your faces, or to “Whizz In Your Wheeties, or to Hold You Upside Down by your feet and dip your head in a Dirty Toilet for your “Old High School Swirley”.
    No, Dooks, The Sage Earl, is above all that childish stuff and ….. hold on …..
    Earl is here to offer up sweet, sweet, redemption.
    Heres the plan, Dooks, you are advised to join Our Great Nations Sage Blacks and Sage Jews by doing “THE RIGHT THING” and voting for the TRUMP/DESANTIS POTUS/VPOTUS tickit ….. comeon, Dooks, everyones doing it, you dont want to be “Left Out”.
    Well here ya go:
    Tay Tay and her Football Dude just switched to Trump/DeSantis …. so ….. “COME ON IN”,
    Earl Pitts American

  • nojokejack

    April 25, 2024 at 7:17 am

    Impossible to be excited about Joe Biden when he’s a pumped up with IV fluids and Adderall fueled corpse. Biden is the curse of death for America. The only cure is to vote him out. Joe has got to go.

    • Dont Say FLA

      April 25, 2024 at 11:58 am

      One candidate being pumped up with IV fluids and an Adderall fueled corpse would be a valid criticism if the other candidate weren’t pumped up with IV fluids and an Adderall fueled, charred corpse. Since they’re both in same ancient pot, we can set that aside and look at results.
      Trump Administration saw massive staff turnover, dozens of staff in prison, 1000+ Trump voters in prison, economic collapse, deaths of 1.5+ million Americans (most of whom would have died soon enough anyhow, so maybe we don’t need to care about that one much), every former cabinet member who doesn’t want to be his cabinet member again has written a book revealing Trump is a moron. Trump, capitulation to Jesus freaks, set Israel up for what went down in October. Trump set Afghanistan up for Taliban rule immediately upon withdrawal but lacked the cajones to execute the plan, leaving for Biden so he could finger point at Biden. Trump allowed health care for women in 50% of states to be decimated, with many facing 1000+ mile trips within country just for an annual gyn exam because no doctor wants anything to do with a pregnant woman. Trump figured The Law was coming for so many shady things he did that he declared 2024 candidacy 3 years ago, which is about 2 years earlier than anyone ever had in all history which makes his candidacy a confession. What other horrible shit did Trump do? Chime in, folks. Now, he did some good things. He allowed for Delta 8 and other THC variants, and if you’re a billionaire, he helped you with cutting your taxes. Anything else? Chime in, folks! Oh yeah he ruined a historic border bill that was all set to pass Congress and give Republicans all the stuff they CLAIMED they wanted, and he wasn’t even President at the time.

      What are Biden’s results? Anything bad? I am not sure about the plane cancel fee thing. That’ll just end up costing us “day of” fares when we re-book after a cancelled flight, meaning no flight will ever again be delayed. If a flight is late, it will be cancelled, refunded, and then all passengers will have to pay the “day of” fare. I’m not a fan of Biden’s continued support for Isreal. Yes Hama did what they did and they should pay the price. But 40,000+ and counting non-Hamas have been killed as part of the price which, if anything can be called being treated “so fairly,” if these 40,000+ folks were not exploded and dead, they could legitimately make that gripe. Economy is booming. Inflation rate is the lowest on Earth. Despite MAGA claims about Biden and Medicare and Social Security, those are doing just fine. Hilariously those claims, trying to attack Biden, are claims that G0Ps would decimate social security and medicare. Every accusation from a G0P is a confession, so it’s likely to be true. What other positives we got from the Biden administration? What other negatives? Unlike some others around here, I don’t claim to know all. I only claim to know bullshit when i see it.

      • Hung Wiil

        April 25, 2024 at 8:35 pm


        • rick whitaker

          April 29, 2024 at 10:11 pm

          HUNG, don’t say fla was nice enough to give you info that you don’t possess and are in dire need of. but your brat ass chose to yawn. no wonder you lack so much. doesn’t being wrong most of the time tell you anything? it doesn’t tell trump anything, but he is a moron and can’t comprehend much. some folks enjoy being the wrong all the time contrarian. earl shits is like that.

      • Hung Wiil

        April 25, 2024 at 9:22 pm

        Just to prove the DS FLA is filled to the brim with the bullshite he claims to abhor . . . the USA inflation rate is 128 out of 221 countries. That means, nimrod, that 127 other countries have lower inflation. You are an amateur who has no business voting or participating in any public function or governance.

        • Marvin M.

          April 28, 2024 at 8:48 pm

          Where did you get this figure?
          “the USA inflation rate is 128 out of 221 countries”
          I just googled it and could not find anything close to this.
          Perhaps you misread something?
          If, like me, you refrain from providing actual links because it seems to trigger automatic moderation that may doom your post to oblivion, you could just say something like “I read it in an article at USA Today last month” or something like that.
          I got 2024 stats from the International Monetary Fund that showed the US as about 66th on the list out about 190 countries providing data which may not sound great on the surface, but we were within the top one third of countries with inflation rate of 3% or less. We shared our 2.9% with Libya and Malta. You definitely do not want to be Zimbabwe!
          Point is, and point remains, inflation was (and still remains to an extent) a global problem, and the U.S. has fared better than most countries in getting it under control.

        • rick whitaker

          April 29, 2024 at 10:14 pm

          HUNG, why did you lie in your post? i’m glad marvin m. had the real facts instead of the lies you were pedaling.

  • Guam Might Tip

    April 25, 2024 at 7:23 am

    Trump out campaigning at 0630 in the morning while Slo Joe sucks on that CPAP machine.

    • Tom

      April 25, 2024 at 7:35 am

      Being driven to court to face felony charges is not quite the same as campaigning but hey, he’s trying (or being tried).

      • Guam Might Tip

        April 25, 2024 at 7:39 am

        I hear ya Tom. I would certainly prefer a different candidate but all the warts considered, Trump is far better than Biden. My opinion of course, but Biden is simply gone mentally. He is incapable of four more years and Ka Mana is a bad backup.


        April 25, 2024 at 8:26 am

        Good Morn ‘Ting Tom,
        I need to chastize you for poor reading comprehension. Its quite obvious you speed-read my above post or did not read its Sage entireity to the end.
        Tom you totally missed the fact that Tay Tay & Kelsey are both Jewish and have converted, along with all Blacks & Jews to supporting the Trump/DeSantis Tickit.
        Tom theres no need for you to grovel before me and beg my forgiveness. I’m just happy that now you are on Tay Tay & Kelsey’s Team for Trump.
        Welcome to The Good Guys Tom,
        Earl Pitts American

    • Dont Say FLA

      April 25, 2024 at 11:59 am

      Well Trump is still awake at 0630, still all riled up from his 3AM Twitter raging.

    • Mr. Haney

      April 26, 2024 at 10:34 am

      Trump will lie anywhere at any time, that’s not campaigning, it’s a con.

  • John L

    April 25, 2024 at 9:15 am

    A pool with a whole 750 participants does not mean squat. There are many never trumpers in his own party that are going to skip this election. He will lose just like that great big red wave we did not have according to the polls. The GOP has got crushed in every election since the orange idiot won. House goes Blue and Senate red and Biden serve 4 more years. Bank on it

    • Dont Say FLA

      April 25, 2024 at 12:01 pm

      750 is a perfectly good sample size, assuming it is carefully crafted to be representative of the population, meaning diversity of background and thought, covering as many variations of background and though exist in the population.

      OTOH, calling 750 people at the most expensive old folks home for your survey? Not good.

  • Dont Say FLA

    April 25, 2024 at 11:43 am

    They worked hard within that 4% margin of error to find Trump with a +2 rather than his real -2 and dropping with every one of his court napzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  • Bidenomics

    April 26, 2024 at 8:59 am

    Scrubbed again. What did I say that triggered the cut? Did Tennessee Rick complain again. Demos do not like free speech. The want controlled messaging.

    • JD

      April 26, 2024 at 9:13 am

      Free speech is an illusion. Unless you control the medium.

    • Mr. Haney

      April 26, 2024 at 10:33 am

      Trump supporters are traitors.

    • Rick Whitaker

      April 26, 2024 at 7:30 pm

      bidenomics, i don’t know of you, but if you knew me you would not call me a snitch. i love free speech. i hate lies. is that clear?

  • JD

    April 26, 2024 at 9:18 am

    I don’t why people give a sh!t about polls.

    We are too fragmented to gather large swaths of people to get a real representation. 745 phone call surveys don’t mean anything. It’s not like in the 50-90’s when you could call someone on their landline, and they got their news from the TV and newspapers.

    There are too many sources competing for the formation of opinions these days.

    Conducting them is a waste of time, following them doubly so, and commenting on them thricely so.

    The bigger indicators are the wedge issues and their metrics to get them on the ballot like abortion / weed and the special election performances leading up to it. However, it’s still all 6 months away. A lot can change.

    • Tom

      April 26, 2024 at 1:39 pm

      The polls just reek of desperation as they try and stay relevant so the campaigns will buy their data. I had a call once and they said it was an opinion survey so I just blocked it and reported it as spam. I can’t figure out who would actually spend the time to wade through a bunch of canned questions designed to elicit a specific response. Like you say, it’s months away yet.

  • Mr. Haney

    April 26, 2024 at 10:32 am

    Anyone who thinks Trump should be or votes for him to be President is an idiot and a traitor.

    • VD

      April 26, 2024 at 5:31 pm

      Mr. Haney you are still a conman and continue to rip off and poorly represent your products and yourself. How dare you call me a traitor after I proudly served this country for seven years. You a draft dodger like Slo Joe Biden?

      • Rick Whitaker

        April 26, 2024 at 7:35 pm

        vd, what does length of service got to do with integrity? just look at gen. flynn for example, a felon. ollie north, another felon.

        • VD

          April 27, 2024 at 7:11 am

          Yes, and you peeled potatoes working KP in the Navy.

  • Ed Powell 2024

    April 26, 2024 at 1:42 pm

    You been leaving lewd and lascivious comments here at the 3rd district.

  • My Take

    April 26, 2024 at 8:36 pm

    I still refuse to believe that America has over 50% morons and traitors to elect raving raging obviously deranged Trump.
    And America just doesn’t seem suicidal.
    Half-crazy, conceded.
    MAGA is like a giant prolonged ergot epidemic. Meth?

  • Jojo

    April 27, 2024 at 8:40 pm

    Do you mind if I call BS on this poll? 700 hundred plus were contacted out of over 14 million registered voters and out of this they were able to get a true snapshot of the results of the election.
    And with caller ID, who exactly is answering Thor phone anyway?

  • Joe

    April 29, 2024 at 2:43 pm

    FP likes to hype up some questionable polls, but UNF-PORL is really scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Comments are closed.


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