Janelle Irwin Taylor
Democratic state Rep. Lindsay Cross is maintaining a double-digit lead over Republican challenger in House District 60, Ed Montanari, according to an internal poll obtained by Florida Politics.
The poll shows Cross with a 12-percentage-point lead over Montanari, at 50% to 38%, likely buoyed by higher name ID and stronger favorability. The poll shows Cross with a 23% favorability rating, compared to 15% for Montanari. Both hold an 11% unfavorable rating, meaning both have room to grow in public opinion.
The numbers are an overperformance from the top of the ticket, where 43% of voters indicated support for Democrats on a generic ticket, to just 39% for Republicans. Another 18% of respondents indicated that they were persuadable, according to the polling memo.
More specifically, HD 60 voters favor Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 51% to 45% over incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott. And even though the poll was conducted before President Joe Biden suspended his re-election campaign, the pull further showed him leading among voters in the district 49% to 44% over former President Donald Trump, with 8% still undecided.
The data offers interesting insight into the race, especially considering voter registration trends have been going in the GOP’s favor in recent months and years.
A look at historic voter registration data for the district available on the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections website shows that in 2020, the last Presidential Election year, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 7 percentage points. As of May 1, that advantage has shrunk to just under 3 percentage points, according to a recent analysis of trends by Florida Politics Publisher Peter Schorsch.
Further, Republicans have won the district before, under far less favorable registration trends. For example, Republican constitutional officers and other countywide candidates swept the district in 2020. While some victories within the district were narrow, Republican Sheriff Bob Gualtieri — who, like Montanari, has broad cross-party appeal — won the district by 16 percentage points.
The shifting trends are not a Midterm anomaly as some may suggest — it was a banner year for Republicans throughout Florida. When comparing voter registration data from May 2023 to this year, there was a 2.3-percentage-point shift in registrations in favor of GOP voters.
When laying data on a graph, the trend lines are clear: Democrats are losing ground while the GOP quickly gains it. In fact, if the rate of change within voter registration data stays relatively consistent, it can be reasonably estimated that Democrats’ advantage would shrink to just over 1 percentage point by book closing ahead of the 2024 General Election in November.
The internal poll suggests Cross is surviving the changing trends. The St. Petersburg Democrat has, even through policy disagreements, maintained positive relationships with GOP colleagues, and has been garnering at least some bipartisan support.
And like most internal polls, the questions asked also serve as a message test for Cross’ campaign. While the polling memo Florida Politics obtained doesn’t include specific numbers on the question or questions regarding abortion, it noted that “Montanari’s abortion stance raises concerns.”
It doesn’t describe what Montanari’s stance on abortion is, and he’s largely avoided the topic throughout this campaign and during his tenure on St. Petersburg City Council, where the issue is typically moot.
However, in 2022 Montanari raised an objection to a City Council move to pass a resolution affirming women’s right to privacy on their health care decisions and to provide funding for a local abortion fund established to help women seeking abortion care travel out of state to obtain the procedure, which ultimately stalled. The attempt came after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling guaranteeing access to abortion and paved the way for a restrictive ban on the procedure in Florida.
Still, Montanari never directly spoke against abortion access. Rather, like other colleagues who are Democrats, he raised concerns about violating rules regarding use of public funds for abortions.
Nevertheless, the polling memo claims “voters indicate that Montanari’s abortion views are concerning” and says they are reacting “by overwhelmingly shifting support” to Cross.
The memo also mentions Cross having “the resources to aggressively communicate Montanari’s abortions views” and contrast them with Cross’ support for reproductive rights.
Indeed, Cross has significant resources. She has about $315,000 on hand to take on Montanari through her campaign account and political committee, Moving Pinellas Forward. That includes more than $8,000 raised between both accounts in the most recent fundraising period covering July 13-19. Montanari, meanwhile, raised just $1,625 during that period and has far less than his opponent on hand, at about $186,000.
But Montanari is likely an ideal candidate in the battleground district where Democrats carry a slight voter registration advantage with just under 40,000 voters compared to just under 37,000 Republican voters, according to the most recent voter registration data from the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections.
And again, that’s a drop of about 1,000 voters for Democrats since late 2023 and an increase of a little less than 1,000 for Republicans, further supporting claims that the district is changing.
Where Montanari is known for his calm demeanor, quiet disposition, thoughtful consideration of policy and moderate approach to governance, so too is Cross. She has loads of support from local Democrats, but has also shown some bipartisan support.
Earlier this month she rolled out several endorsements, including four Republicans — Largo Mayor Woody Brown, Oldsmar Mayor Dan Saracki, North Redington Beach Mayor Bill Queen and former Redington Beach Mayor Nick Simons. Gulfport Mayor Sam Henderson, a former Democrat who has since become an independent, and Indian Shores Mayor Pat Soranno, who is also unaffiliated with a party, are also backing Cross.
