Janelle Irwin Taylor
When political operatives have discussed new district boundaries in recent years, the conversation typically surrounds claims of gerrymandering to the benefit of GOP candidates. And while new district boundaries for the Hillsborough County Board of County Commissioners was controversial, at least one district may be thwarting that new conventional wisdom by benefiting Democrats.
District 2, which covers areas around New Tampa and the University of South Florida, has been in Republican hands for years, including under incumbent Ken Hagan since 2018 and, before that, under the leadership of former Republican Commissioner Victor Crist.
But as of June, Republicans only outnumber Democrats in the District by 500 voters. And while Republicans and Democrats both have nearly 70,000 voters each in the district, no-party voters account for nearly 59,000 more. That makes the district, at least on paper, a clear battleground.
And an analysis of the district maps from 2021 before new boundaries were adopted in accordance with mandated reapportionment following the 2020 census, compared to the current map following redistricting, shows a big swing for Democrats in the district. The analysis was made by MCI Maps and obtained by Florida Politics.
Specifically, results of the 2020 Presidential Election at the top of the ticket — between now-President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump — showed a major swing in Democrats’ favor when considering how the district would have fared under current maps.
In 2020, Biden won the district under its previous boundaries with 50.2% of the vote, compared to 48.4% for Trump. Under the current map, Biden’s margin of victory would have been 52.8% to 45.8%, a swing in Democrats’ favor of more than 5 percentage points.
Translated to this year’s race for District 2 — which features Hagan (assuming he survives the GOP Primary, which is highly probable) and Democratic challenger Patricia Alonzo — the shift in partisan demographics could have major implications.
The last time Hagan ran for re-election, he won by more than 13 percentage points, so the 5 points that the district shift could give Alonzo wouldn’t, on paper, do much good.
But it’s worth considering that that victory came in 2022, when Republicans defied national trends and rode a red wave in Florida. At the top of the ticket, Republicans enjoyed a near R+20 advantage, which translated all the way down ballot into wins for Republicans, in some cases, in seats that should have been solidly blue.
No one knows yet whether the outsized success for the GOP two years ago was an anomaly or a new trend. But looking at the district historically, through the lens of the new district boundaries, it becomes entirely possible that District 2 could be in play for Democrats.
For example, in 2018, Hagan won his race under old boundaries by less than 5 percentage points, a victory that could have been erased under new boundaries.
And other than 2022, under the new boundaries, voters in the new district overwhelmingly favored Democrats in every past election going back to 2016, with the exception of Ashley Moody’s 2018 victory against Democrat Sean Shaw, according to the MCI Maps analysis.
It’s also worth considering that Hagan’s past victories in District 2 have come during Midterm Elections, which have lower turnout than Presidential Election years. Because of redistricting, Hagan is now facing voters in a presidential Election year.
That might have actually been good news a couple of weeks ago, when Biden was still the Democratic Party’s nominee and Democratic voters were displaying apathy at the top of the ticket. But now, Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to lead the ballot for Democrats, a move that has swiftly reinvigorated the Democratic base and could benefit candidates down-ballot.
Nothing is guaranteed in politics, to be clear. But historic trends in District 2, when considering new boundaries, paired with a GOP voter registration advantage that has essentially been closed, certainly puts District 2 back into play for Democrats hoping to win back their majority on the Hillsborough County Commission after losing it just two years ago.
The question though is, can Democrats pull it off even with trends moving in their direction?
As of July 19, the date for which the most recent campaign finance data is publicly available, Alonzo had raised less than $18,000 for the race.
That’s a small sum for a County Commission race under any scenario, but it’s even more troubling considering Hagan’s ability to draw loads of cash. He’s raised more than $211,000 for the race. That gives Hagan a massive funding advantage, on top of the inherent advantage that comes from being an incumbent, let alone an incumbent who has served from the dais for more than two decades, since 2002.
For her part though, Alonzo is putting in the work and drawing supporters, with recent endorsements from Commissioner Pat Kemp, Rep. Dianne Hart and School Board member Jessica Vaughn.
In her endorsement, Kemp called attention to Hagan’s vote on July 17 with the Republican majority on the Commission to delay a property tax referendum that had been on track to appear on this year’s General Election that would fund Hillsborough County Schools with an estimated extra $177 million in new yearly revenue.
The move has enraged public education supporters and prompted legal action. A Judge this week notified the county that there would not be a hearing in the matter and that, instead, she would issue a ruling by Monday. It’s potentially good news for supporters of the referendum, but it has provided fodder for Alonzo and her supporters to go on the offensive against Hagan.
Whether any of this will move the needle for Democrats, specifically Alonzo, won’t be clear until votes have been tallied in November. But for now, Democrats see reason for hope.
“Patricia Alonzo understands the county needs to support our schools, affordable housing, health care, voter access, and our nonprofits that are serving people’s needs,” Kemp said.
