Internal poll shows Allison Tant with commanding lead in HD 9

Tant, Allison
Impact Research said she has a double-digit lead on Spencer Brass — and can keep it with enough resources.

Rep. Allison Tant appears to be in good shape as she seeks to defend her House District 9 seat, according to an internal poll.

Impact Research, a polling outfit used by Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’ campaign, found the Tallahassee Democrat with a commanding lead over Republican challenger Spencer Brass.

The survey found 55% of likely voters in the district want to re-elect Tant, more than enough to ensure her a third term. Meanwhile, just 36% of voters favor Brass, with just 8% still undecided.

“Recent polling in FL HD-9 shows Democratic Representative Allison Tant with a commanding lead and in a strong position for re-election this year,” reads a polling memo from Impact. “Tant can hold this strong margin, given she has the resources to communicate against a self-funding millionaire opponent.”

Financial disclosures filed in June list Brass’ net worth above $5.2 million.

Pollsters said they surveyed voters cold, then provided information on both candidates. That led to Brass picking up some support but Tant gaining even more. She led the informed electorate with 57% of the vote to Brass’ 37%.

The sentiment on the House race lines up with what Impact found as far as constituent feelings on the 2024 Presidential Election. About 56% of voters in HD 9 favor Harris over Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. If that holds, it means Harris would outperform President Joe Biden’s 2020 numbers in the district, the memo states. The poll found Trump with a favorability rating that is 20 percentage points underwater.

Tant notably outperforms a generic ballot test in the region. About 47% of voters are naturally inclined to vote Democrat in races, according to the poll, compared to 36% who vote Republican by default and 16% who consider themselves persuadable.

Pollsters surveyed 400 likely General Election voters between Aug. 7 and 10. The poll had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

Tant, a former Florida Democratic Party Chair, has raised more than $393,000 in her official campaign account. Brass, by comparison, has raised $44,000.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


One comment

  • Elvis [FKA Earl]

    August 25, 2024 at 4:36 pm

    Good evening Sage Patriots,
    Your Leader, ELVIS, rarely recomends voting for a Democrat.
    HOWEVER:
    Allison Tant supports the autistic and mentally disabled in a way no Republican has bothered to do.
    For that I, ELVIS [FKA EARL] highly recomend all Republicans cross party lines and cast your Sage vote for Allison Tant.
    ELVIS HAS SPOKEN:
    And expect 100% compliance.
    Thank you Sage Patriots,
    ELVIS [FKA EARL PITTS AMERICAN]

Comments are closed.


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