Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Florida being “in play” this cycle is starting to sound less like a punchline and more like a possibility.
A new measure from Public Policy Polling shows that the gap between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has narrowed to four points, 51%-47%.
The gap shrinks by a point when third-party candidates are thrown in; however, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who recently suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump, is the lead also-ran in the poll.
The closing gap may also impact down-ballot races. According to PPP, Republicans lead Democrats by four points on a generic congressional ballot, 50%- 46%, with 5% telling the pollster they are undecided.
PPP also analyzed the U.S. Senate race, finding incumbent Republican Rick Scott leading Democratic former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 46%-43%.
Notably, Mucarsel-Powell was the only Democrat named in the poll with a positive favorability rating, although her plus-9 came alongside a “not sure” from half the electorate. Scott scored a minus-6 on the same question. Harris clocked in at minus-6 as well, while Trump was above water by a single point.
PPP’s Florida results were bundled with a similar poll of Texas voters.
The gulf between Harris and Trump sits at five points in the Lone Star State but narrows to three points when third-party candidates are included.
Evening Reads
—“Another poll shows narrow race between Kamala Harris, Donald Trump in Florida” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—”Will Harris’ lead last? A few questions that will shape the answer.” via Nate Cohn of The New York Times
—”The election is in 10 weeks. These three things about the polls keep me up at night.” via Kristen Soltis Anderson of The New York Times
—”Donald Trump’s evangelical supporters just lost their best excuse” via Peter Wehner of The Atlantic
—”Joe Biden, Harris push scrutiny of police. Trump would halt such efforts.” via David Nakamura and Robert Klemko of The Washington Post
—”Conservatives have invented a conspiracy about Tim Walz’s dog” via Nikki McCann Ramirez of Rolling Stone
—“DNC executive producer: Even my staff believed Beyoncé was coming” via Steven Zeitchik of The Hollywood Reporter
—”Months ago, Florida OK’d giving 324 acres of state forest to golf course company” via Max Chesnes and Emily L. Mahoney of the Orlando Sentinel
—”An inside look at how the far right is mainstreaming itself” via Zack Beauchamp of Vox
—”Teachers are burning out on the job” via Matt Barnum of The Wall Street Journal
Quote of the Day
“If asked to participate in such a project, we would decline.”
— Nicklaus Companies, distancing itself from DEP’s unpopular state parks plan.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Send a round of Fifteens to the team at RSA Consulting, which is celebrating its crystal anniversary this week.
Sure, Florida relies on the billions of dollars tourists spend in the Sunshine State every year, but unless they learn how to drive, we should only let them order Carpetbaggers.
Nicklaus Companies President and CEO James Haggerty could use an Arm’s Length as his org tries to avoid the blowback of the now-abandoned proposal to build golf courses at Jonathan Dickinson State Park.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Floridians at the U.S. Open
The final Grand Slam event of the tennis season continues in Flushing, Queens, as the U.S. Open’s first round continues (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Among those in action this evening is Pembroke Pines resident Sofia Kenin. The Russian-born tennis star faces 2021 U.S. Open champion Emma Raducanu.
Kenin is ranked 54th in the WTA rankings and is looking for her second Grand Slam title. She also won the 2020 women’s singles title at the Australian Open. That same year, she made it to the finals at the French Open. Kenin has not made it past the fourth round of a Grand Slam event since.
Raducanu is ranked 72nd in the world and, like Kenin, has not advanced past the fourth round in a Grand Slam event since winning the U.S. Open three years ago.
The match winner will advance to face the match winner between Shelby Rogers and sixth-seeded Jessica Pegula.
Bradenton resident Sebastian Korda is in action on the men’s side, who faces France’s Corentin Moutet in the first round.
Winners of first-round matches earn $100,000. The women’s singles final is scheduled for Sept. 7, and the men’s is on Sept. 8.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
