Poll: The ‘Free State of Florida’ may not be free enough for voters this year

Image via Adobe.

As Gov. Ron DeSantis and allied conservatives continue to dub the Sunshine State the “Free State of Florida,” a large majority of Floridians seem to believe it’s not free enough.

That’s a clear takeaway from two recent surveys from Sachs Media’s Breakthrough Research showing that with Election Day just eight weeks away, Florida voters remain solidly committed to making their own choices when it comes to abortion rights, hunting and fishing, and the recreational use of marijuana. Proposed constitutional amendments on all three issues currently enjoy enough support to easily exceed the 60% threshold for adoption.

“If you’re looking for an overall theme, it may be this: amendments that would reinforce individual freedoms are doing well with the public, while those that would alter the manner of government remain unpopular with the governed,” said Sachs Media partner and director of research Karen Cyphers, who conducted the survey.

The survey found four proposals headed for adoption in November, if numbers hold:

— Amendment 3, authorizing the recreational use of marijuana by adults, is currently supported by 65% of voters, up from 63% in April.

— Amendment 4, enshrining abortion rights in the Florida Constitution, is currently supported by 76% of voters, up from 74% in April.

— Support for Amendment 5, requiring annual homestead adjustments for inflation, has grown to 80%, up from 75% in April.

— Amendment 2, placing the right to fish and hunt in the constitution, also enjoys 80% support, up from 77% in April.

But while most amendments appear on track to get the OK from voters this election, not all are enjoying the same support. With several years of clashes over the direction of public education in the state, voters don’t seem all that interested in bringing overt partisanship to School Board daises across the state.

Amendment 1, which would require all School Board races to be partisan — meaning candidates’ political affiliations would appear on the ballot and candidates could campaign on their political leanings, something that is currently barred — currently has just 42% support, even less than the 47% it held in April.

Another election process-related measure to repeal public financing of elections is also in trouble. Amendment 6 is garnering just 49% support, up just slightly from the 46% it had in April but far short of the threshold for adoption.

In a perhaps telling fact about both struggling amendments, they were put on the ballot by the Legislature.

On most amendments, the results reflect deep partisan divides. Republicans are at least 15 percentage points more likely than Democrats to support Amendments 1 (School Boards) and 2 (fishing and hunting). By contrast, Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to support Amendments 3 (marijuana) and 4 (abortion) — even while a majority of Republican voters support each measure.

Here’s a deeper dive into what a combined 2,000 likely Florida voters have said about each amendment heading into the November elections:

Amendment 1: Partisan School Boards

Overall, only 42% of voters expressed support for this measure in September, down from 47% in April. The most significant factor in the change was a drop-off in Republican support, which fell from 59% to 50% over the five-month period. Democratic support fell from 39% to 35%, while support among no-party voters dipped slightly from 40% to 36%. The amendment is more popular among men (44%) than women (38%), and least popular among voters aged 65 and older (34%).

Amendment 2: Right to fish and hunt

With 80% overall support, this measure is popular across the board — although Republicans (89%) are far more supportive than Democrats (70%). Support is strong among both men and women, and among all age groups.

Amendment 3: Adult recreational marijuana

Despite an effort by some (but notably, not all) Florida conservatives to highlight potential problems with this amendment, overall support has grown slightly since April — from 63% then to 65% now. The measure is seen favorably by 79% of Democrats and 72% of no-party voters. Support is strong among both genders (67% female, 63% male), and across all age groups (77% among those ages 18-44, 65% among those 45-64, and 59% among those 65 and older). And currently, a majority of Republicans (51%) support the measure, up from 44% of Republicans just five months ago. During this time, a number of notable Florida Republicans including Sen. Joe Gruters and Donald Trump have broken ranks to support the measure, while DeSantis remains opposed.

For his part, DeSantis cites concerns that recreational marijuana would make the state smell “putrid,” with wafting clouds of weed smoke permeating the air — an experience that isn’t uncommon in some cities with widespread cannabis use. DeSantis’ concern seems to be shared by a meaningful portion of Floridians who are opposed to legalizing pot: 3 in 10 of current “no” voters say they’d be more likely to switch to “yes” if Florida passed a smoking ban in all public spaces. Such a proposed ban, which would include cigarettes and marijuana alike, is supported by nearly 2 in 3 voters (65%).

Interestingly, support is expressed by 75% of Democrats, 58% of no-party voters, and 60% of Republicans — in other words, Democrats are more likely to support both legal marijuana and bans on public smoking.

Amendment 4: Abortion

Despite the long-standing national debate over the issue of abortion, this proposal garners 76% overall support, with enough support to pass among nearly all demographics. Not surprisingly, its largest support comes from Democrats. But perhaps surprising is just how many Democrats are on board — a staggering 97%. Meanwhile, 78% of no-party voters support the abortion amendment. Even Republican voters are largely on board. Republican women support the amendment at a level high enough for passage and then some, at 67%, while a clear majority of Republicans overall support the amendment, at 57%.

Among genders, women are most supportive, at 83%, while 73% of men support Amendment 4. There is also broad support among all age demographics, with those 65 and older actually posting the strongest support, at 82%. Younger voters, those 18 to 44, are just behind, at 80% support, while 73% of those ages 45 to 64 are also supportive.

Amendment 5: Homestead exemption

Given the opportunity to increase certain homestead exemptions, 80% of Florida voters say they will vote “yes” — an increase from 75% five months ago. Support is high among party affiliations, genders and age groups — and is especially strong among younger voters, with those ages 18-44 expressing 90% support.

Amendment 6: Repealing public campaign financing

The Legislature may not like public financing, but Florida voters appear determined to keep it. The measure fails to get simple majority support, with just 49% for and 51% against in the latest survey, up only slightly from 46% support in April and nowhere near the 60% required for adoption. Democrats expressed the least support (45%), with Republicans (51%) and no-party voters (52%) only somewhat more enthusiastic. Men and women (51% each) equally fall short of the required vote threshold for passage, while only younger voters ages 18-44 (64%) would provide sufficient support — less than a majority of those ages 45-64 (48%) and 65 and older (49%) favor the change.