Ryan Nicol
A new Florida Atlantic University (FAU) survey shows that the presidential race has remained relatively unchanged since the period immediately following Democratic National Convention (DNC).
The latest poll from FAU’s Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading former Republican President Donald Trump 49.5% to 45% among likely voters.
That’s nearly unchanged from the last time the FAU survey was in the field, when Harris led 49% to 45% days after the DNC ended.
“The race remains extremely tight, with both candidates having strong bases of support,” said Kevin Wagner, Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the PolCom Lab. “The outcome may hinge on which campaign can better mobilize their core supporters and appeal to undecided voters.”
Some of Harris’ best demographics are voters over 50 (54% support), college-educated White voters (54%), and women (51%). Trump, meanwhile, is doing well with White voters without college degrees (58%) and voters 18-49 (50%).
Pollsters also asked a variant of the horse race question, quizzing voters on who they predict will win. By that metric, Harris holds a 54% to 46% lead.
“Asking people to predict the winner can give a sense of how people see their friends and family voting,” Wagner said. “This type of question can be a window on the political mood and suggests that Vice President Harris’ support continues to be enthusiastic and visible.”
Pollsters found that 57% of women predicted a Harris victory, while 53% of men predicted it. While 58% of voters 50 and older say they expect Harris will win, just 50% of those under 50 say the same. Black voters (84%) and Hispanic voters are confident Harris will win (68%). But 57% of White voters without college degrees expect a Trump victory speech.
The 820-voter survey ran from Sept. 16-17. FAU researchers estimate a 3.4-percentage-point margin of error.
Harris’ 4.5-point lead in the survey is above her current national polling average. Harris has a 3.8-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s average, a 2.7-point lead according to Nate Silver, and a 1.9-point edge in the RealClearPolitics average.
10 comments
PeterH
September 19, 2024 at 5:02 pm
Fox News and other fake news media outlets have a responsibility to prepare their devoted MAGA readership of the blue tsunami that will sweep this election in November. Republicans have baked their last MAGA cake!
Republicans are America’s worst enemy!
Vote all Republicans out of office!
Bobblehead Kammy
September 19, 2024 at 6:45 pm
Independent voter my azz😜
Tom
September 20, 2024 at 7:22 am
What happened, man? You used to be more fun. All you’re doing now is attempting to insult everyone else with stupid smiley faces. Stand up for your tribe!! Trump, Vance, Loomer, Black Nazi porn guy from NC and I’m sure there’s some very fine people there as well.
Linwood Wright
September 20, 2024 at 9:54 am
That Colorado Hillbilly lady who gave a dude a handy during BeatleJuice while vaping.
Matt Gaetz, the Pensacola Pedo.
The GOP is full of fine people for sure.
JD
September 19, 2024 at 7:00 pm
I’m a registered NPA, but I can’t support the current crop of Republicans—they’ve become too extreme. Since the pandemic, 90% of the bills passed in Florida have been tailored to give DeSantis a platform for his presidential run, following the Project 2025 playbook.
They lied about their intentions on abortion, culture wars, and more. So why would other NPAs trust them?
And now they’re aligning with people like Viktor Orbán, a borderline dictator? No thanks. Clean up the party, and maybe you’ll stop seeing movements like “White Dudes for Harris.” gaining momentum.
Keep denying it all you want, but the sentiment software run on this site shows it’s changing, even when the AI filter’s out the “Why do you lie” comments.
PeterH
September 20, 2024 at 12:14 am
There are literally millions of us undeclared voters who will decide this election.
Tom
September 20, 2024 at 7:09 am
That’s my take as well. I’ve always been NPA but split the ticket depending on what interested me at the time. This year, it’s Democrat across the board. Maybe they’ll figure out that running moron’s on the top of the ticket is a losing bet.
rick whitaker
September 19, 2024 at 8:33 pm
JD, being a progressive dem and a worker, i can’t see voting for anyone from a party other than dem. there are two ends on a magnet that are opposed to each other. to get an effect out of the NPA part of the magnet, is beyond me. there are two teams going in opposite directions. pick the team that best fits, and set out to make it better. that has worked well for me. actually i don’t have a party either because i am to the left of bernie, but i go with the dems out of pragmatism. to me conservatism is another word for greed. to me the gop motto is: ” i got mine, so you get yours, and see if i let you”.
JD
September 19, 2024 at 9:16 pm
I’m more libertarian than I’d admit (traditional libertarian, David Boaz style of thought).
But as I grow older, I realize the Republicans aren’t for anybody but themselves. Your quip about ” i got mine, so you get yours, and see if i let you” is too spot on.
There are too many Republicans saying they’re Libertarians in-disguise, using the “Probability Broach” comic book as their manual these days.
Michael K
September 20, 2024 at 8:28 am
Regarding party affiliation, one throughline in my choice has always been based on what a party does or does not do, regarding basic human and civil rights.
I will not support any party or candidate that diminishes the rights of women and LGBTQ people, reverses or restricts voting rights, or uses racist tropes in their campaign strategies, or scapegoats or demeans groups of people for political gain.