Jacob Ogles
Democrat Kristen Arrington holds a massive lead in a new poll for an open Senate seat in Central Florida.
Impact Research, the pollster also used by Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign, shows 52% of Senate District 25 voters plan to vote for Arrington in the Fall. By comparison, just 37% plan to back Republican Jose Martinez. That puts her lead outside the poll’s 4.9-percentage-point margin of error.
That’s good news two years after a majority of voters in the state backed Gov. Ron DeSantis’ re-election. While Democratic Sen. Victor Torres also secured re-election, his 5-percentage-point margin over Republican Peter Vivaldi left Republicans openly wondering if the seat may be open to a flip in coming elections.
The Impact Research poll should ease Democrats’ concern about the future of the seat somewhat.
“After a tough 2022 midterm that saw Ron DeSantis narrowly carry this seat, the fundamentals in Florida SD-25 in a Presidential cycle appear to have reverted to a more familiar, 2020-esque baseline that is far more hospitable to Democrats,” wrote pollsters Kevin Akins and Beau Salant in a polling memo.
“Rep. Kristen Arrington is the clear favorite to win this general election. Outside of the partisan lean of the seat, she outclasses Jose Martinez in overall name ID, popularity, and fundraising.”
The poll found that Arrington, a sitting state Representative, has positive name ID. About 35% of voters are already familiar with her when surveyed, and 21% have a favorable opinion compared to 14% who see her in an unfavorable light.
By comparison, about 31% know of Martinez, and 15% have a positive opinion of him while 13% have a negative one.
Both candidates in August emerged from competitive Primaries. Arrington defeated former U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson and community leader Carmen Torres, wife of the outgoing Senator, for the Democratic nomination. Martinez defeated Osceola School Board member Jon Arguello.
The polling, though, shows room to grow for Arrington, with pollsters suggesting she “needs to work to push her share further above 50%.”
Right now, Arrington’s support tracks closely with Democrats above her on the ballot.
“She runs a hair short of Kamala Harris here, who leads Donald Trump in the Presidential race 56% to 40%, and about evenly with Debbie Mucarsel-Powell who leads Rick Scott 54% to 39%,” pollsters wrote.
“Undecided voters in the State Senate race look somewhat favorable to Democratic candidates but are not sure bets — they side with Harris for President by 26 points, but with Scott for U.S. Senate by only 10.”
Pollsters stressed the race would be critical to Democratic performance statewide in November. And while Arrington appears an early favorite, pollsters said the swinginess of voters means nothing should be left to chance.
“This is a must-win seat that Democrats should not take for granted. This race is also an opportunity to shore up Arrington’s image with key voting groups, to help galvanize SD-25 for Florida Democrats in the long haul,” pollsters wrote.
