A.G. Gancarski
A new survey of the Sunshine State suggests that Democrats’ assertion that Florida is in play in November won’t come to pass, depicting a collapse in support among voter subgroups necessary to keep Donald Trump from winning the state for the third time in eight years.
The stunning poll from The New York Times and Siena College saw 622 likely voters polled between Sept. 29 and Oct. 6. And unhappily for Kamala Harris, it shows the biggest lead for the Republican in any survey of the race yet, no matter how the numbers are framed, with even 8% of Joe Biden voters from 2020 backing the former President.
The GOP nominee leads 55% to 41% when people are forced to choose between the two major party candidates, and 53% to 40% when third-party names like Chase Oliver and Jill Stein (both below 1%) are included, with 5% not picking any option.
Harris has an anemic 35% support among White voters in this poll, while Trump takes 1 in 5 Black voters in the two-way test. The candidates are statistically tied with Hispanic voters (47% for Harris to 46% for Trump), and Trump also has an edge with women, 49% to 47%.
Trump leads with all age groups polled here, pressing a 25-point advantage among voters between 35 and 49 years of age and a 21-point edge with those between 50 and 64 years old in the two-way test.
Though the poll was conducted before the onset of Hurricane Milton, it’s notable that Harris’ support is in a trough in the Tampa area, where she trails Trump 57% to 38%. The Vice President does have single-digit leads in Miami-Dade and the Southeast portion of the state, along with an 18-point lead in Orlando.
But given that Trump has 60% support in areas outside the major metro regions and 68% in North Florida, those banks of votes don’t appear to be enough for the Democratic candidate.
This poll, outlier or not, shifts the RealClearPolitics average further in Trump’s favor, to 6.7 percentage points.
6 comments
Joe
October 8, 2024 at 9:37 am
Oh Florida voters… you do this to yourselves.
MHDuuuval
October 8, 2024 at 9:56 am
Don’t rush to judgment. Leave that to the MAGA insane. posse.
Billy Rotberg
October 8, 2024 at 10:16 am
Name 10 accomplishments of harris without bringing up her opponents. I’ll wait.
It's Complicated
October 8, 2024 at 10:14 am
This is a fascinating race in that both candidates seem to be ‘their own worst enemy’ when it comes to appealing to voters. The more voters hear (OK – probably just undecided voters) either one of them speak, the more they think neither one of them is suitable to be POTUS.
Billy Rotberg
October 8, 2024 at 10:31 am
I don’t like either of them. It’d be nice if there were other options.
Bobblehead Kammy
October 8, 2024 at 10:45 am
Agreed. I would much rather a different person besides Trump. Kammy just doesn’t have it. It’s obvious she climbed the political ladder with lots of help. Looks and party girl personality will only get you so far.