Ryan Nicol
As some prognosticators have argued the momentum in the Presidential Election is swinging toward President Donald Trump, new national polling numbers from Marist undercut that narrative.
The survey puts Kamala Harris ahead of Trump, 52% to 47%, among likely voters. That means the numbers have moved 3 points toward Harris since the previous edition of the survey conducted earlier this month, which had Harris up 2 points.
Among just registered voters, Harris’ lead is narrower, at 51% to 48%.
Trump does hold a 10-point lead with independents, 54% to 44%, according to Marist. That’s a 6-point swing toward Trump since the last version of the survey. He also had a 6-point advantage with men (53% to 47%) while Harris leads big with women (57% to 42%).
Trump is 5 points underwater in terms of favorability (44% favorable to 49% unfavorable), while voters are almost evenly split on Harris (45% to 46%).
Harris is having to run while being weighed down by President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings. Marist found just 40% approve of his job as President, while 53% disapprove.
The survey sampled 2,021 adults from Oct. 8-10. Registered voter results have a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, while that number moves to 3.9 points among likely voter results.
Harris’ 5-point lead overall is larger than most major polling averages show. Nate Silver’s independent forecast has her up by 2.8 points, while FiveThirtyEight gives her a 2.6-point lead and RealClearPolitics shows her ahead by 1.7 points.
Those margins have shrunk a bit in recent weeks as Trump has gotten some more favorable polling results.
It’s worth noting the election is decided state-by-state, not by the national popular vote, so it remains to be seen how Harris’ lead nationally will translate to the Electoral College. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast does still give Harris the edge there, giving her a 56% chance to win. Bettors on PredictIt are more split, however, pegging the election as almost a pure coin flip.
3 comments
THE BENELOVANT "E"
October 16, 2024 at 6:33 pm
Good evening America,
Ya know about how I’ve been ragging on The A. P. as nothing but Pure “D” Propaganda?
WELL STAND BY FOR NEWS:
They finally published an artical I do not disagree with.
“ATLANTA, GA — Continuing her push to bolster support among minority voters, Vice President Kamala Harris appealed to black voters by offering each of them a free pack of menthols and a copy of Madea’s Family Reunion on DVD.
With her support from black males slipping despite her recent announcement to offer free cash and legal weed, Harris held an emergency meeting with her campaign staff to determine what special incentives could bring her popularity back up.
“We struck out with offering to legalize drugs, and everyone called us racist — but we were not deterred,” said Harris-Walz campaign staffer Elaine Johnson said. “If offering cash and weed was a no-go, how about a pack of menthols and a Madea DVD? Tyler Perry is still popular with the, uh, black people, right?”
When asked about the move, Vice President Harris had only one brief comment: “Madea! HAHAHA! Am I right? HAHAHA!”
At publishing time, black voters had reportedly reminded her that the DVD came out in 2006 and it was her administration that worked to ban menthol cigarettes.”
America you know it’s bad for “Scrumpy Kammie” when The A. P. publishes an artical which I, THE BENELOVANT “E”, agree with.
Thank you America,
THE BENELOVANT “E”
THE BENELOVANT "E"
October 16, 2024 at 7:41 pm
At last, America, my older Brother YewOweMe, is finally going to stop being mean to me and thank me for saying great things about The A. P. [ The Associated Press ].
We will once again be a happy family and he will quit beating me up and picking on me.
Thanks Bro, “E”
*Queue the Theme Song from America’s Greatest Family Sit-Com “The Jeffersons” … “Well we’re moving on up To the East Side To a “Deluxe Apartment On The East-Side”*
THE BENELOVANT “E”
Childless Cat Lady
October 16, 2024 at 7:53 pm
I’ve voted in Florida and my vote for Kamala Harris has been certified. Let’s hope Americans get out and vote so we can see the day Donald Trump is finally served the justice he so deserves.