USF survey finds Republicans still overwhelmingly distrust elections, engagement is high

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A survey from the University of South Florida’s (USF) Center for Sustainable Democracy finds Americans overall largely view elections as safe, secure and accessible, but Republicans are overwhelmingly skeptical.

The survey, taken in two waves from Sept. 13-25 among 1,450 U.S. adults and again from Oct. 16-29 among 1,037 of the same respondents and in partnership with researchers at Rutgers University, the University of Minnesota and the University of Kansas, found that a large majority of Americans (63.6% in October and 63.5% in September) believe votes are counted fairly all or most of the time. Even more believe that Americans who want to vote can (75.8% and 76.6%). And a large majority believe non-citizens vote in elections never or only some of the time (68.4% and 69.3%).

But the numbers looks different when accounting for partisanship. Republicans were far less likely to believe votes are counted fairly, with nearly 45% in September and more than 48% in October saying they believe votes are counted fairly all or most of the time. Democrats, meanwhile, were more likely to believe elections are safe, at more than 60% in both September and October. Likewise, they question election security, with nearly 33% in September and more than 27% in October indicating they believe non-citizens vote all or most of the time. By comparison, Democrats believed the same with much lower frequency (about 11% in both waves of questioning). And on accessibility, more than 70% of Democrats in September and more than 74% in October said elections were accessible, far fewer than Republicans (85.2% in September and 84.2% in October.)

And all Americans report high interest in this year’s election, with four in five indicating they were very or somewhat interested. those “very” interested increased by three percentage points between the September and October polls, indicating that engagement has increased as the election draws near. Surveyors noted that there was virtually no difference between Republicans and Democrats on election interest, but independent voters were less likely to be interested. 

That interest translates to political participation, with more than 73% of respondents in September and nearly 70% in October indicating they talk to people about politics. More than 32% said they post on social media about this year’s election, while about 20% wear campaign merchandise; more than 18% donated to candidates or other campaigns; about 14% attend political meetings, rallies or dinners; and about 10% contact voters by canvassing, phone banking or writing.

Other than engaging others about politics, there were statistically irrelevant differences between responses in September and October. The difference between responses from September to October on talking to people about politics, a drop of nearly four percentage points, indicates voters may be tiring of the election process. 

The survey also found a majority of Americans are dissatisfied with democracy in the U.S. (more than 55% in September and more than 51% in October), but the numbers were largely driven by Republican dissatisfaction. There, more than 66% of Republican respondents in September and nearly 62% in October reported dissatisfaction, compared to about 35% in both waves among Democrats. Independent voters were also highly likely to report dissatisfaction with democracy, with nearly 62% indicating so in September and 57% in October. 

One interesting question found both parties with a significant number of voters favoring a “strong leader’ form of government where the President could make decisions without interference from Congress or the courts, though the sizable portion is in the minority and the question only asked voters if they would prefer a “strong leader” if it was someone from within their own political party. 

There, October responses decreased from September, indicating voters may be growing weary of campaign rhetoric from former President Donald Trump, who has espoused what some, particularly his critics, have described as dictatorial tendencies. 

Democrats in October indicated about 36% support for a “strong leader” from their party, while Republicans favored a strong leader by about 32%. Those numbers for both parties were near 60% when respondents were asked in September. 

The survey also found respondents concerned about the impact of social media on American democracy, with most (55% in September and 57% in October) saying social media’s impact on democracy as “more of a bad thing.” 

Nearly three quarters of respondents in both waves said social media makes people more divided in their political opinions, while nearly 70% said it makes people less civil in the way they discuss politics. 

Meanwhile, a slight majority (about 53%) said social media made people more willing to embrace violence as a solution to political problems. 

Likewise, the survey found partisan voters with strong negative views toward those with opposing views. About 60% of respondents in October and 63% in September said they worry the opposing party is trying to hurt America. About 60% similarly said the opposing party is trying to sabotage the county, while more than half of respondents said the opposing party doesn’t care about America. 

Meanwhile, less than a quarter of respondents said they believed the opposing party wants was best for America, while even fewer said they trusted the opposing party to do what is best for the nation. 

The survey, which has a margin of error of three percentage points, did not ask respondents about their voting preferences this election. It was taken among what researchers describe as a “nationally-representative” sample.