Ryan Tyson’s election predictions were eerily spot on

Conservative pollster Ryan Tyson nailed it this year.

Tyson, one of the most respected pollsters in Florida, predicted Donald Trump would win Florida by 13 points, and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott would win by 12. Unofficial results show Trump won by 13.14 points, and Scott by 12.8 points.

Most polls had Trump and Scott performing anywhere from 4 to 12 percentage points better than their Democratic opponents, with those in double digits appearing as outliers.

What makes Tyson’s memo so extraordinary is that it was an incredibly bold prediction. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 1.2 percentage points in 2016, and Joe Biden by 3.4 points in 2020. Even that 2020 margin had not been seen in a presidential race in Florida since George W. Bush faced John Kerry in 2004, when Bush topped Kerry by more than 5 percentage points.

In his polling memo, Tyson noted that the key to such a high victory margin would be “turning out low-propensity voters in large numbers.” Indeed, that’s what Florida saw in the days and weeks leading up to Election Day, when the GOP — emboldened by a more than 1 million-voter advantage — far exceeded Democrats in early voting, eclipsing in most places Democratic vote-by-mail totals. Republicans continued to turn out in greater numbers on Election Day.

Voter turnout this General Election reached nearly 79%, with nearly 11 million votes cast. That’s the highest turnout in any Florida election since 1992, according to state turnout data. Turnout during the last Presidential Election was 77%, when Trump faced Joe Biden on the ballot. It hit 75% in 2016, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton.

Data also suggests that GOP turnout efforts may have swayed nonpartisan voters, too. That group neared voter turnout levels among Democrats in many counties.

Tyson, while based in Florida, is also a leading polling expert nationally, and it’s calls like this that earn him his stellar reputation. He uses more than just data, adding innovative research and careful analysis into his approach.

Tyson previously served as a pollster and senior advisor for Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 2024 presidential campaign and in his 2022 re-election campaign. He was also a senior advisor to Trump’s presidential campaign in Florida in 2020 and has previously advised U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio.

He founded the Tyson Group, a national firm providing political research to clients.