The Tampa Bay Rays and a series of unfortunate events … and why Pinellas County is being foolhardy

First, there was rejoicing.

Kenneth T. Welch won election to replace Rick Kriseman as St. Petersburg Mayor, setting up a string of events that would lead the Tampa Bay Rays to partner with Hines to develop not only a new MLB stadium, but an entertainment, business and residential destination in which the Rays would share in the financial rewards.

In Mayor Welch, the team found an ally in its pursuits and an end to more than a decade of squabbling about when and where a stadium would be built, and who would pay for it.

Despite some pushback from a small, yet vocal, set of unlikely bedfellows — conservative tax hawks and anti-corporate welfare liberals — plans for the new stadium deal and redevelopment of the Historic Gas Plant District seemed largely favorable.

The St. Petersburg City Council was on board and residents seemed to be too, given their overwhelming re-election of Council Chair Deborah Figgs-Sanders, a key Welch ally and avowed Rays deal supporter. The Pinellas County Commission gave its thumbs up too, with a vote on a bond resolution a mere formality to take place in late October.

But just as a mayoral election kicked off a string of good news for the Rays, another came along to poo-poo it … oh, and a couple of hurricanes to boot.

Given the number of Pinellas County residents devastated by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in late September and October, County Commissioners voted to delay the bond resolution vote that was supposed to be merely a “formality” until Nov. 19.

Please note, that date came AFTER an election that would determine whether a Rays deal-friendly Commissioner (Charlie Justice) would keep his seat or be replaced by one of those aforementioned conservative tax hawks (Vince Nowicki). Justice was the only Commissioner to vote against delaying the Oct. 29 item, it’s worth noting.

There was also an open race for Janet Long’s seat, from which she was retiring, but neither candidate in that race made the Rays issue much of a campaign talking point.

In any case, Nowicki won, replacing a Rays ally with what has become clearly a hard “no” on the Rays deal. Nowicki became one of six Commissioners this week to vote, again, to delay the bond resolution.

Nowicki says, according to his comments Tuesday night at his first Commission meeting after being sworn in the night before, that his opposition is to the deal as-is, but it seems pretty clear he’s a no, no matter what.

And surprise surprise, that leaves the other new Commissioner, Chris Scherer, as a possible swing vote, though he too seems to be leaning towards giving the Rays the finger.

If Tuesday night’s meeting taught us anything, it’s that the Rays deal is looking increasingly likely to go kaput. The Rays, in a strongly worded memo to the Commission ahead of Tuesday’s meeting, made it clear that the delay had already caused them to miss the window on a new stadium being ready for the 2028 season — the first for which they are not under contract with the city of St. Pete to play ball at Tropicana Field — and that a 2029 opening would be cost prohibitive.

What’s not included in that scathing letter is the fine print.

See, the deal between the Rays and the city of St. Petersburg has a lot of protections for the city. If the Rays back out, they lose their development rights to the rest of the Trop site. If the deal dies but it’s not the Rays’ fault, that’s a little less clear. It’s entirely possible that if the city moved forward with redeveloping the Gas Plant District, that the Rays could still retain some revenue sharing rights.

Talk about a pickle … and not the one between third base and home plate.

Now, the Rays might be back to where they started, before Welch and before Kriseman. And the Tampa Bay region is back there too, wondering whether Major League Baseball will remain or the team will skedaddle for less drama-filled elected bodies (enjoy the popcorn, Montreal).

But for all the legitimacy to debates about whether the city of St. Pete and Pinellas County got a good enough deal, there are very real economic implications that aren’t being widely discussed, and concerns are being floated that are, quite frankly, foolhardy.

County Commission Chair Kathleen Peters, who has no love lost between herself and the Rays but nonetheless was supportive of the deal, perhaps laid out the potential impacts best.

During Tuesday’s debate, she kept mostly quiet until the end, a privilege board Chairs often enjoy. But she interjected when Nowicki was antagonizing the Rays, and to an extent, Pinellas County Administrator Barry Burton, by pointing out that only 3% of visitors to Pinellas County go to a Rays game, and asking whether the tourist development (bed) tax, from which the county’s portion of the new stadium development deal would come, would remain healthy after so many closures from back-to-back hurricanes.

Peters was quick to point out, as the Tourist Development Council Chair, that bed tax dollars are perfectly resilient. In fact, tourism in general this year is only a percentage point behind last year — which was a record year — even with the hurricanes and related closures.

She also reminded that the 3% figure Nowicki tossed out was based on a survey that didn’t ask whether visitors had attended an event at Tropicana Field, rather just a Rays game, which means that 3% could have attended, say, a concert or other event at the facility. Also worth noting, that 3% represents more than 400,000 people. Sounds a lot more robust when put that way.

Nowicki’s antagonism aside — he was a government watchdog and all-around thorn in the side of local governments prior to his bid for County Commission, for better or worse — Peters also pointed out that if the Rays were to leave the Tampa Bay region, or more specifically the state, it would potentially imperil the state’s robust Spring Training sector.

Peters claims she was told by a Phillies Spring Training executive that if the state lost another MLB team, Spring Training would no longer be viable. And what does that mean? As Peters describes, it means a loss of a cottage industry that absolutely does attract visitors.

As for the city of St. Pete, they are rightly worried that a failed stadium deal would also mean a failed Historic Gas Plant District deal. Peters also noted that without the stadium deal, the Rays could be left to bail on the community asset portion of the deal and instead look toward more lucrative deals for developers.

“They’re going to take that 60 acres and they’re going to make a bunch of money and they’re not going to make it look and live like what they promised,” she said.

And she’s not wrong.

So to all the naysayers, including what appears to be a majority of the Pinellas County Commission, this is about more than a baseball stadium.

And especially to Scherer, who took office only to be immediately faced with what will almost certainly be his most critical decision, look beyond what your anti-Rays colleagues are telling you and remember that sometimes being a fiscal hawk requires looking outside the box.