Drew Dixon
For the first time in months, consumer sentiment fell in Florida, reflecting economic pessimism among residents.
Consumer confidence in the state had been increasing since Fall and into the new year. But February saw a tumble in the perceived economic security among consumers in the Sunshine State. The consumer sentiment figure fell 2.6 points compared to January’s figure, settling in at 86.9 in February.
“The decline in consumer sentiment is primarily driven by Floridians’ pessimistic expectations about future economic outlooks, which have decreased for the second consecutive month. In particular, expectations for the U.S. economy dropped sharply, nearly reversing the gains seen since the presidential election in November,” said Hector H. Sandoval, Director of the Economic Analysis Program at University of Florida’s (UF) Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
There are five economic factors UF researchers use to gauge consumer sentiment when conducting surveys of Floridians. Four of those five decreased in sentiment last month.
Opinions on whether now is a good time to buy a large-ticket household item, such as an appliance, decreased from 77.9 in January to 77.6 in February.
Expectations of personal financial situations a year from now dropped from 102.2 in January to 98.3 in February. The sentiment toward overall U.S. economic conditions over the next year also slipped, falling from 96.5 to 87.9. The outlook on the national economy over the next five years also dropped, notably falling 5.8 points from 95.1 in January to 89.3 in February.
“Several factors are contributing to this growing pessimism, with the potential impact of tariffs likely at the top of the list, particularly through their effect on prices. This has led to higher inflation expectations. … Additionally, inflation remains above the Fed’s target, delaying any prospects of interest rate cuts in the near future,” Sandoval added.
That pessimism may not subside any time soon. Sandoval noted that federal layoffs through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) may hit Florida on a noticeable level, which could only deepen a building bleak economic outlook.
“Federal civilian employment in Florida totals nearly one hundred thousand workers, but it is unclear how many will be affected by the recent layoffs. While the overall job market remains solid, job and wage losses among federal government employees could reduce demand and consumption, potentially affecting Florida businesses. Ultimately, the economic impact will depend on the scale of the job cuts and the ripple effect on contractors and consumer spending,” Sandoval said.
“Looking ahead, we anticipate a decline in consumer sentiment, driven by the potential for new tariffs and ongoing workforce reductions resulting from federal government layoffs. Consumer sentiment in March will offer further insight into whether this shift points to a longer-term downward trend in the months ahead.”
The consumer sentiment survey was conducted by UF researchers between Jan. 1 and Feb. 27. Some 550 Floridians answered questionnaires from those researchers through mobile phones or online.
