Florida expected to lose $5.5B in state GDP and 49,000 jobs if enhanced premium tax credits expire

Enhanced premium tax credits provided by the Affordable Care Act are set to expire at the end of this year, and if Congress fails to extend them, Florida families will pay thousands more for health care coverage or lose coverage altogether.

Enhanced premium tax credits, which help lower insurance costs for more than 4 million Floridians, have been instrumental in keeping health care accessible and affordable.

If Congress allows the tax credits to expire, premiums would skyrocket. A 60-year-old couple earning $82,000 a year would pay $13,000 more for their annual premiums. A family of four earning $129,800 would see an increase in annual premiums of $4,400.

A recent report by the Commonwealth Fund and George Washington University’s Milken Institute School of Public Health underscores the magnitude of this potential crisis. If tax credits expire, the net economic harm for states would be far larger than the loss of $26.1 billion in federal funds. Not only will families be forced to pay more for coverage, but it will lead to direct losses to health care providers and indirect and induced impacts to other economic sectors, such as information technology and real estate.

“For individuals and families, the loss of personal income means less money to spend on consumer goods and services like groceries, housing, and transportation,” it states. “The impacts will extend beyond the health care sector to affect most parts of states’ economies.”

Florida is one of the largest ACA marketplaces, and is expected to be the second hardest hit in the nation if Congress allows tax credits to expire.

According to the Commonwealth Fund, Florida stands to lose more than $5.5 billion in state GDP, more than 49,000 jobs for Florida families and $301 million in state and local tax revenue.

“Unless Congress extends the enhanced premium tax credits, 4 million more Americans will become uninsured, and many will likely experience difficulties accessing affordable health care,” the report concludes.

The political ramifications of allowing these subsidies to lapse are also noteworthy. Many individuals in conservative districts directly benefit from the tax credits, making their removal a potentially unpopular move among Republican voters.

A recent report in the Washington Examiner from GOP polling expert Tony Fabrizio found that 78% of President Donald Trump’s supporters national want to see health care premium tax credits extended. This is particularly important to maintaining the Republican majority in the U.S. House.