Poll shows Byron Donalds starts with 6-point lead over David Jolly in 2026 Governor’s race

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U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holds a comfortable lead on former U.S. Rep. David Jolly if the two compete for Governor. But a third of the electorate remains undecided.

That’s according to a poll from Victory Insights, which tested voter sentiment on the first major members of their respective parties to announce campaigns. The survey was put in the field from June 7-10, right after Jolly announced his campaign.

The poll shows almost 37% of voters would vote for Donalds, who launched his campaign in March. Meanwhile, just over 31% would back Jolly, a Republican Congressman-turned-Democratic candidate.

Another nearly 32% of voters remain undecided, showing there’s room for both candidates to grow their name recognition.

Senior pollster Ben Galbraith in a polling memo acknowledged that it’s early in the 2026 campaign cycle. But he said the race shows an edge for Republicans, reflecting the difference in the state’s political makeup since the last time the Governor’s office was an open seat.

“Once a Republican, Jolly has been vocally anti-Trump in recent years and is running for Governor as a Democrat. Some observers received this news as a major development, positing that the fact that a Congressman was once a Republican would, by default, make him more palatable to modern Republicans, and therefore put the race for Florida Governor in play for the Democrats,” Galbraith wrote.

“One realizes that this particular thought process is grounded more so in hope than in reason upon remembering that the Democrats’ nominee for Governor in 2022 was also once an elected Republican official, and he still lost in a landslide.”

That referenced former U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist, a former Republican-turned-Democratic nominee for Governor, who lost to Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2022 by a landslide.

But DeSantis isn’t running again either. The poll also showed that neither Jolly nor Donalds has the name recognition of the outgoing Governor or the sitting President.

The poll found 24.5% of voters have a positive opinion of Donalds, with more than 14% giving him the highest rating on a five-point scale. By comparison, just over 15% have a positive view of Jolly, with 12% giving the highest score.

Meanwhile, 19% have a negative association with Donalds and 16% score Jolly poorly.

But nearly 51% of voters have no opinion about Donalds, and 58% have none on Jolly. By comparison, less than 5% of voters list no opinion on Donald Trump and just over 5% say that of DeSantis.

The Republican polling firm also broke down average ratings of various kinds of Republicans. Those who consider themselves MAGA Republicans, who make up 43% of all Republicans surveyed, give Donalds an average score of 4.48 on a five-point scale. By comparison, DeSantis gets an average score of 4.64. Trump, who coined the MAGA label with his “Make America Great Again” slogan, received an average of 4.79 in the group.

But among self-identified moderate Republicans, Donalds scored an average score of 3.9, higher than either DeSantis or Trump. Galbreath said that showed an appeal with Donalds among various factions of the GOP electorate.

Meanwhile, Jolly doesn’t score well with any GOP voters, including moderates, who gave him an average score of 2.47. Democrats give Jolly an average score of 3.62, lower than any group of Republicans gives to Donalds.

“Donalds’ endorsement from President Trump is likely an insurmountable hurdle for any primary challenger,” Galbreath wrote. “On the Democratic side, Jolly is the only potential contender on whom Republicans have set their sights so far, with Florida GOP Chair Evan Power joining Donalds in hurling attacks at Jolly and his record.”