Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
A Florida TaxWatch analysis suggests Florida missed out on a U.S. House seat after the last census — and maybe two. But any effort to correct that could impact 13 other states, depending on how the federal government treats noncitizens in a new count.
The Tallahassee-based fiscal watchdog released its latest report, “Census Briefing: Apportionment changes amid policy proposals,” which evaluates three different methods by which the federal government could revisit its 2020 census data.
The report focuses on different outlooks one can take when revisiting the population count in the country conducted five years ago, rather than one that a snap census might produce. Whether trying to correct an undercount in the state or by changing standards to only count legal residents or legal citizens, the result for Florida would be the same: an increase in political influence from the 2021 reapportionment of congressional votes.
“During the 2020 census, an estimated 750,000 Floridians failed to respond to their census survey, resulting in a statistically significant undercount of 3.48%. This undercount cost the State of Florida at least one additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and at least one additional vote in the Electoral College, and billions of dollars’ worth of grant funding throughout the decade,” said Florida TaxWatch President Dominic Calabro.
The report came out as Gov. Ron DeSantis and Florida legislative leaders move toward a mid-decade redistricting similar to that of other states, a process that would be significantly impacted if Florida had more than the 28 U.S. House districts currently assembled in its map. But sources closely following the redistricting process wonder whether the process would result in the gains desired by Florida Republicans.
Florida TaxWatch has already explored one scenario. A July report showed that inaccuracies in the 2020 census — most because of an undercounting of people in the state — resulted in Florida, Texas and Tennessee all being shorted one congressional seat, while Colorado, Minnesota and Rhode Island all erroneously obtained a seat.
Of note, the three wronged states, according to that analysis, were those President Donald Trump carried in the 2024 Presidential Election. All three states that gained from the undercount went for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
Read more on Florida Politics.
Evening Reads
—“RFK Jr.’s victory lap” via Tom Bartlett of The Atlantic
—“Why I HATE Congressional hearings (and yes, this is about RFK Jr.)” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—”Donald Trump’s lawyers just inadvertently admitted that his tariffs are illegal” via Ian Millhiser of Vox
—”The Supreme Court is just another political football now” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—“Richard Corcoran’s compelling case” via Matt Walsh of Your Observer
—”HHS boosts Florida opposition to vax mandates in letter to health providers” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—”How Ben Franklin’s French diplomacy raised money — and saved the American Revolution” via Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal
—“NFL RedZone host Scott Hanson confirms broadcast will feature commercials this season” via Amos Morale III and Richard Deitsch of The Athletic
—”The best quarterbacks of all time” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin
—”The NFL’s most valuable teams 2025” via Justin Teitelbaum and Brett Knight of Forbes
Quote of the Day
“With Florida offering some of the most popular vacation destinations in the nation, the ramifications from this decision could be catastrophic.”
— Ashley Lyerly of the American Lung Association, on Florida’s push to end all vaccine mandates.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Playing catch-up on mid-decade redistricting? Sip on an Over and Under while you read through Florida TaxWatch’s comprehensive Census Briefing.
Florida’s job market is serving up Hot Streaks after capping off its seventh week of declining new unemployment filings.
Health organizations and Democrats aren’t keen on the state’s most recent anti-vaccine moves, but there’s no rule yet against ordering them Jabs & Dabs.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Gators face USF in Gainesville on Saturday
The Florida Gators host USF on Saturday in one of three matchups of teams from the Sunshine State (4:15 p.m. ET, SEC Network).
Florida, ranked #13 in this week’s Associated Press Top 25 poll, opened the season with a 55-0 victory over Long Island University. Gators’ quarterback DJ Lagway threw three touchdowns, and Jadan Baugh ran for 104 yards and a touchdown in the win.
USF delivered one of the most impressive performances of the early season when it beat Boise State 34-7 to open the season. It was the Bulls’ first win over a ranked team since 2016.
The other games involving a pair of Florida schools this weekend include:
— Florida A&M at FAU (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+): FAU dropped the season opener 39-7 at Maryland. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw four interceptions in the loss. FAMU dropped a 10-9 loss to Howard in the Orange Blossom Classic at Hard Rock Stadium.
— Bethune Cookman at Miami (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+, ACC Network): The fifth-ranked Hurricanes opened the season with a 27-24 victory over Notre Dame to open the season. Former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck tossed a pair of touchdowns and threw for 205 yards in the victory. Bethune-Cookman dropped a 42-9 loss to FIU in the season opener.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
