Phil Ammann
While everyone is busy speculating about whether Jeb Bush will survive his immigration and Common Core positions in the modern Republican Party, new polling shows the one stance that could prove a deal breaker with GOP voters: his opposition to same-sex marriage.
A new batch of 2016 primary polls from NBC News and Marist College rolls out the usual suspects for Republican turn-offs: Common Core, immigration reform, belief that climate change is man-made, and pushing for higher taxes on the wealthy.
However, one surprising issue could alienate Republicans: opposition to gay marriage, an opinion Bush shares with nearly the entire GOP presidential field, writes Aaron Blake of The Washington Post.
Polling found half of likely Republican caucus and primary voters in the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina saying opposition to gay marriage is either “mostly” or “totally” unacceptable in a presidential candidate.
In addition, 52 percent of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina called opposing gay marriage either mostly or totally unacceptable, and 47 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers agree.
Comparatively, 63 percent of Iowa Republican voters say a candidate who espouses that climate change is man-made is unacceptable, 56 percent of New Hampshire GOP voters do not want a candidate who wants higher taxes on the wealthy, and 52 percent of South Carolina voters will shun a White House hopeful supporting comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship.
Interestingly, Blake notes, voters in those three states are amenable to a candidate supporting gay marriage as one who does not stick to the party line on any of the other issues.
The numbers do follow a logical pattern. In March 2014, a Pew poll found 39 percent of Republicans and those who lean Republican support gay marriage. Between the passage of time and the fact that non-Republicans cast ballots in New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, there is a higher chance of an anti-gay marriage ban electorate in 2016.
Blake offers another possible explanation: the poll question itself. Polling on opposition to gay marriage, rather than supporting it, broaches a double negative. That could be confusing survey respondents, as people tend to respond in the negative when in doubt.
Yet, this and other polls clearly show a growing number of Republicans are supporting gay marriage. But is it enough for a 2016 GOP presidential candidate who is in favor of gay marriage? Probably not, Blake says.
With a GOP presidential contest, the most popular strategy is disaffecting as few voters as possible.
Since the poll asked about gay marriage opposition — not support — it’s hard to get an accurate handle on just how many people would actually reject a candidate supporting gay marriage. Blake assumes gay marriage is a voting issue more for those against gay marriage than those for it — at least in the GOP.
One note: 25 to 31 percent of likely GOP voters in each state say the opposition to same-sex marriage is “totally unacceptable” — about the same number it is on all the other issues.
And it’s a rare candidate who wants to be the first to come out (so to speak) and support the matter.
