Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government.

Peter SchorschNovember 6, 2014

When a candidate loses an election, there’s a tendency to ask what could have been done differently. Coulda, woulda, shoulda is a natural part of the post-election period. But when a candidate loses by a margin as tight as Charlie Crist fell short against Rick Scott — 48.2 to 47.1 percent — there’s an obligation […]

Guest AuthorNovember 2, 2014

When asked to write this column, I was reminded about a time when political polls were exclusively analytic tools that taught us something useful for campaigns. They were the closely guarded domain of geeks and political insiders seeking a strategic roadmap for a candidate or referendum. Polls were our little secret and were much more […]

Guest AuthorOctober 12, 2014

On Wednesday, there will be a televised live debate between Charlie Crist and Rick Scott — and possibly Adrian Wyllie. Wyllie is suing to participate under the presumption that he has met the threshold of 15 percent in polls set by the debate organizers. Did he make it? This is not a legal analysis of […]

Guest AuthorSeptember 24, 2014

Third in a series about polling. Every cycle some pollsters seem to get it right. Some get it wrong. Why? To answer that question, it’s vital to understand that predicting what the electorate will look like matters — it really matters. And perhaps the single most important variable that pollsters must properly balance, especially in […]

Guest AuthorSeptember 21, 2014

Second in a series. Wanna sound smart? Ask your pollster, “So what’s the margin of error?” Wanna sound really smart. Don’t ask it. While there are entire courses dedicated to what are known as bell curve or parametric statistics and you can learn about smart sounding things like random distribution, confidence levels, and standard deviations […]

Guest AuthorSeptember 18, 2014

First of a Series The question came to us the other day, “Why poll just Rick Scott versus Charlie Crist?” “Why not also include the other folks on the ballot?” Good questions. Why would you poll test just the two, which many high-quality professional pollsters are still doing? After all, the logic follows, there will […]

Tag: Steve Vancore

Peter Schorsch: Here are 16 factors that contributed to Charlie Crist’s loss

Steve Vancore: Polls: What have they become?

Steve Vancore: Wyllie fails to meet polling threshold to qualify for debate

Steve Vancore: To be accurate, pollsters must understand who is really going to vote

Steve Vancore: Polling 101: Margin of error — What the heck is it anyway?

Steve Vancore: A look at polling in the 2014 Florida governor’s race