A.G. Gancarski
The presidential race may be more competitive in the Sunshine State than previously expected, despite Republicans outnumbering Democrats by a million voters.
That’s the takeaway from the latest USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV phone poll of 500 likely voters conducted between Aug. 7 and Aug. 11.
While Donald Trump still leads with 47% support, Vice President Kamala Harris’ 42% puts her within striking distance, particularly given that 5% of voters are undecided and another 5% back Robert Kennedy Jr., who continues to decline in polls across the country.
The poll performance is remarkable given the professed party split of respondents, as 42% think of themselves as Republicans, 34% are Democrats and 21% are independent.
Trump leads in every region of the state but South Florida, where Harris is up 51% to 39%.
Meanwhile, the polling suggests anomalies among age cohorts. Trump leads by 4 points with voters under 35 years of age, while Harris is up by 2 with senior citizens.
While age groups may be doing unorthodox things in this data, racial splits are what one might expect. Harris takes 70% of Black voters, with Trump carrying 55% of White respondents. He also leads with Hispanics, 50% to 39%.
Trump is up 57% to 33% with men, while Harris leads with women, 50% to 38%.
Harris also dominates with independent voters, 41% to 34%.
Voters nonetheless are locked in, with 89% of both Trump and Harris supporters saying they are excited to vote for their choice.
Trump’s polling operation expected trends to go Harris’ way in the short term.
Pollster Tony Fabrizio said last month that the so-called “Harris honeymoon” will be a “manifestation of the wall-to-wall coverage Harris receives from the (mainstream media).”
“The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term,” Fabrizio suggested at the time.
Other polling of the Trump-Harris race has shown signs of life for the Democratic nominee also.
Trump was up 7 points over Kamala Harris in a statewide University of North Florida survey in a two-way race polled late last month.
Meanwhile, a MDW Communications poll of Miami-Dade voters suggests that Harris, unlike some other recent Democratic candidates, may have a message that resonates in South Florida, which is key to any upset hopes for her party. Harris leads by 15 points there overall, with a 23-point lead among voters without party affiliation.
16 comments
ScienceBLVR
August 13, 2024 at 9:23 am
Come on Kamala, let’s show them all! We can take Florida cause it ain’t over yet-
Now nothings in my way you aint seen nothing yet
i have learnt to fly – and hold my head up high
theres something i dont want you to forget
it aint over yet – it aint over yet
how ya gonna know if you’ve got what it takes
you can’t be a winner if you don’t run the race
you know you get nothing if ya come second place
cuz it aint over – until its over!
SUPER ELVIS THE MAN OF STEEL
August 13, 2024 at 11:32 am
OK now Sage Patriots, read the science guy’s post above, and Relax Your Sphincters one and all.
The above nonsenseical “Dook 4 Brains Leftist” compitition in the upcoming POTUS election are compleat raveing idiots based our reading of the science guys post above ….. we got this Sage Patriots slam dunk.
SUPER ELVIS
Larry Gillis, Libertarian (Cape Coral)
August 13, 2024 at 9:29 am
VOTE LIBERTARIAN.
Choosing between these two Clowns is like deciding whether or not to have “sprinkles” on your ice cream cone.
Send ’em a message they cannot ignore: http://www.lp.org
Ocean Joe
August 13, 2024 at 9:47 am
It could be 1964 with coat tails, or it could be 1968 if the convention doesnt go smoothly. Doubt she’ll get the customary bounce, she already got it.
If Chicago turns into “Chicago” again, this time the Gaza folks plus the risk of ‘over-lionizing’ Joe Biden. The guy said he would only run once, then tries to hang on. Riots, people wearing masks to hide their identities battling police feeds into Trump’s ‘I alone can fix it’ stuff.
Florida’s independents have tended to vote GOP, so despite the amendments which even Trump is waffling on, dont get your hopes up.
SUPER ELVIS THE MAN OF STEEL
August 13, 2024 at 3:15 pm
Dont worry my Besty Lefty OJ,
The Good Guys got this in a landslide!
The Democrats are frantically trying to spend, spend, spend now on Ads, Merch, paid articals, booking convention space, non-refundable hotel rooms, ect…ect…ect…, with any vendors who will pay the “FINANCIAL KICKBACK GAME” with them.
This is SoftBall knowledge and indisputable Truth from SUPER ELVIS, The Big Voice On The Right.
SUPER ELVIS
Yrral
August 13, 2024 at 10:42 am
Si Ella Puede
Yrral
August 13, 2024 at 10:44 am
It look like JD and Sofa Loren has put a drag on Trump campaign Google JD Vance Drag Queen
PeterH
August 13, 2024 at 11:33 am
Independent voters decide elections! As a responsible fiscally conservative independent voter I find not a shred of evidence that Donald Trump represents ANY facet of conservative thought. Donald Trump has and will continue to be a convicted felon and a fraud. He’s hardly an example role model for America’s youth. VOTE FOR HER!
Day 23
August 13, 2024 at 11:51 am
What does Kammy represent? Of course she has made lots of statements and claims in the past that she now is attempting to separate herself from? Truly amazing the most liberal Senator in the US is getting this kind of traction. Keep smiling, giggling, and running from your past. It is working. For Now.
Tom
August 13, 2024 at 1:45 pm
The only people who pretend to care aren’t going to vote for her anyhow. Say nothing, stick with the rallies and watch trump stick his foot in his mouth every day. Seems like a really good plan to me – biden beat trump campaigning from his basement so it’s a winning strategy and these days, it’s all about identity politics more so than policy. I’ll vote for her because frankly, trump is a clear and present danger and I’m pretty sure I’m not alone in thinking that.
Michael K
August 13, 2024 at 2:41 pm
You are correct – Trumpism has nothing to do with conservatism. Most real conservatives have abandoned the party. And for all the emphasis on white men, it will be women who will decide this election.
By the way, Trump’s “press conference” last week was fact-checked to reveal 162 documented lies within 62 minutes. But the Trumpists don’t care one bit about truth or decency.
Chris
August 13, 2024 at 12:25 pm
Florida for Trump All the Way!
MAGABrat
August 13, 2024 at 12:32 pm
They just want to make Kamala the Obama 2.0. Remember he won Florida in 2008 and 2012. Why Sleepy Joe didn’t win Florida 4 years ago. Try again Demonrats.
Pauline
August 13, 2024 at 2:22 pm
Will never vote for convicted sexual assaulter, fraudster and felon. His ship has sailed
Michael K
August 13, 2024 at 2:44 pm
I’m with you. I’m beginning to understand the quid pro quo oligarchs expect from Trump: raw political power—appointments in the administration, and policies and tax dollars to advance their personal interests only.
Michael K
August 13, 2024 at 2:50 pm
Specifically: Peter Thiel’s investment in JD Vance (or whoever he is these days) and Elon Musk’s investment in Trump, who awaits sentencing next month.